Collaborative Research: WCR: Is Deforestation Changing the Hydrologic Climate and Vegetation Dynamics of the Amazon?

合作研究：WCR：森林砍伐是否正在改变亚马逊的水文气候和植被动态？

• 批准号: 0449793
• 负责人: Rafael Bras
• 金额: $ 39.96万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-03-01 至 2011-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0449793&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; WCR; Deforestation; Changing

In this collaborative work, the PIs will test the hypothesis that the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia is changing as a result of deforestation. A regional coupled atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere model will be developed. The model's formulation addresses important limitations in earlier studies of Amazonian deforestation by (i) simulating observed patterns of land-cover change, (ii) simulating the long-term (decadal-to-century scale) consequences of the interaction between the vegetation, atmosphere and land-surface hydrology, (iii) incorporating forest edge effects (sub-grid scale variability in vegetation dynamics associated with forest pasture-interfaces), and (iv) running at spatial resolutions high enough to simulate explicitly mesoscale variability in important hydrologic climate processes such as cloud formation that are caused by fine scale patterns of deforestation. The following three sub-hypotheses will be evaluated:Hypothesis 1: Observed patterns of deforestation are changing the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia.Hypothesis 2: The changing hydrologic climate is changing both short (hourly-seasonal-yearly) and long-term (yearly-decadal) vegetation dynamics across the region.Hypothesis 3: Changes in the land surface arising from the changing hydrologic climate are, in turn, shifting the climate and hydrologic cycle towards a more arid state.The constrained model will then be used to predict the future state of the hydrologic climate and vegetation of the region.The results from this study will be disseminated through webpages and links to existing Amazon research programs. It is planned to prepare an outreach program for high schools in Boston. Graduate and undergraduate students will be involved in the research.

在这项合作工作中，PI 将检验亚马逊流域长期水文气候因森林砍伐而发生变化的假设。将开发一个区域大气-生物圈-水圈耦合模型。该模型的公式通过（i）模拟观察到的土地覆盖变化模式，（ii）模拟植被、大气之间相互作用的长期（十年到世纪尺度）后果，解决了早期亚马逊森林砍伐研究中的重要局限性和地表水文学，(iii) 纳入森林边缘效应（与森林牧场界面相关的植被动态的亚网格尺度变异性），以及 (iv) 以足够高的空间分辨率运行，以明确模拟重要水文的中尺度变异性由小范围的森林砍伐引起的气候过程，例如云的形成。将评估以下三个子假设： 假设 1：观察到的森林砍伐模式正在改变亚马逊流域的长期水文气候。假设 2：变化的水文气候正在改变短期（每小时-季节性-每年）和长期整个地区的（年-十年）植被动态。假设 3：水文气候变化引起的地表变化反过来又改变了气候和水文循环然后，约束模型将用于预测该地区水文气候和植被的未来状态。这项研究的结果将通过网页和现有亚马逊研究项目的链接传播。计划为波士顿的高中准备一项外展计划。研究生和本科生将参与这项研究。