Impacts and Consequences of Predicted Climate Change on Andean Glaciation and Runoff

预测气候变化对安第斯冰川和径流的影响和后果

• 批准号: 0836215
• 负责人: Mathias Vuille
• 金额: $ 4.45万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-01-15 至 2010-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0836215&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impacts; Consequences; Predicted; Climate; Change

0519415VuilleThe tropical Andes are one of the regions of the globe where recent climate change ismost evident, consistent with the notion that high-elevation mountain ranges that extend into themid-troposphere will experience greater warming. As a result glaciers are receding throughout thetropical Andes, with potentially severe consequences for the availability of drinking water, andwater for irrigation, mining and hydropower production.General Circulation Models (GCMs) run with a 2.CO2 scenario predict an additionalwarming of more than 2.5.C by the end of the century. However large uncertainties exist aboutthese future projections, especially because the coarse resolution of GCMs is inadequate toresolve the meso- and local-scale circulation features associated with the steep Andeantopography. To accurately understand and predict future climate change and its impact on tropicalAndean glaciers, higher resolution models and a better simulation of variables other thantemperature are required.We propose to simulate climate variability and change in the Andes under both presentdayconditions (1961-90 and 1958-2001) and two different IPCC-SRES emission scenarios(2071-2100) with a regional climate model (PRECIS) to gain a better understanding of howfuture climate change might affect tropical Andean glaciers.Results from our regional climate model will be validated with observational data fromspace before they are used as input into a glacier-climate model (ITGG 2.0) to simulate howglacier mass balance will be affected by future climate change. The simulated present-day massbalance of selected glaciers will be compared with observational records from the tropical Andesto verify the accuracy of our results. To gain a better understanding of the consequences ofglacier retreat, the ITGG 2.0 model will also be used to simulate changes in runoff from Andeanwatersheds. The anticipated results of our proposed research are:1) The use of a high-resolution model will improve simulations of climate in this area of complexterrain and yield more accurate predictions of future climate change than are available to datefrom GCM.s.2) An in-depth model validation with observational data will lead to a better assessment of modelperformance (for both the RCM and the ITGG 2.0).3) We will for the first time establish robust projections of how glaciation and runoff will changein this region at the end of the 21st century. This has important implications for the anticipatedfuture water shortage in the region and will provide much needed information to implementadaptation and mitigation strategies.4) Finally we anticipate a significant model improvement as a result of using regional climatemodel data instead of course resolution reanalysis data as input into the ITGG 2.0 model.We strongly believe that our proposed research addresses a key issue related to futureclimate change in the tropical Andes, which is of high scientific interest but also of primarysocio-economic relevance for the region. The potential for a future water crisis is evident and thiswater shortage is related to a projected future change in runoff, due to the observed rapid glacierretreat. The scientific merit of this proposal is therefore to gain a better understanding of bothmechanisms and consequences related to the disappearance of tropical Andean glaciers. Thisincreased knowledge on how fast and how far glaciers will recede and how much this will affectfuture runoff and water availability from the Andes will have a significant and broad impact onlocal economies and populations. Without a better and much more detailed knowledge of howfuture climate change will affect glaciological and hydrological systems in the Andes, nomitigation and adaptation strategies can be put in place.

0519415Vuille 热带安第斯山脉是全球近期气候变化最明显的地区之一，这与延伸至对流层中部的高海拔山脉将经历更严重变暖的观点一致。结果，整个热带安第斯山脉的冰川正在消退，对饮用水以及灌溉、采矿和水力发电用水的供应可能造成严重后果。在 2.CO2 情景下运行的大气环流模型 (GCM) 预测，全球变暖将超过 2.5 .C 到本世纪末。然而，这些未来的预测存在很大的不确定性，特别是因为 GCM 的粗分辨率不足以解决与陡峭的安第斯地形相关的中观和局部尺度环流特征。为了准确地了解和预测未来的气候变化及其对热带安第斯冰川的影响，需要更高分辨率的模型和对温度以外的变量更好的模拟。我们建议模拟当前条件下（1961-90 年和 1958-1958 年）安第斯山脉的气候变化和变化。 2001）和两个不同的 IPCC-SRES 排放情景（2071-2100）以及区域气候模型（PRECIS），以更好地了解未来气候变化可能如何影响热带安第斯冰川。我们的区域气候模型的结果将通过太空观测数据进行验证，然后再输入到冰川气候模型（ITGG 2.0）中，以模拟未来气候变化将如何影响冰川质量平衡。选定冰川的模拟当前质量平衡将与热带安第斯山脉的观测记录进行比较，以验证我们结果的准确性。为了更好地了解冰川退缩的后果，ITGG 2.0模型还将用于模拟安第斯流域径流的变化。我们提出的研究的预期结果是：1）高分辨率模型的使用将改善该复杂地形区域的气候模拟，并产生比 GCM.s. 迄今为止可用的更准确的未来气候变化预测2）使用观测数据进行深入的模型验证将有助于更好地评估模型性能（对于 RCM 和 ITGG 2.0）。3）我们将首次对该地区的冰川和径流将如何变化做出可靠的预测21世纪末。这对该地区预期的未来水资源短缺具有重要意义，并将为实施适应和缓解战略提供急需的信息。4) 最后，我们预计，由于使用区域气候模型数据而不是路线分辨率再分析数据作为输入，模型将得到显着改进。 ITGG 2.0 模型。我们坚信，我们提出的研究解决了与热带安第斯山脉未来气候变化相关的一个关键问题，这不仅具有很高的科学价值，而且对该地区也具有主要的社会经济相关性。未来发生水危机的可能性是显而易见的，而且这种水资源短缺与由于观察到的冰川快速退缩而预计的未来径流变化有关。因此，该提案的科学价值在于更好地了解与热带安第斯冰川消失相关的机制和后果。这增加了人们对冰川消退的速度和程度的了解，以及这将在多大程度上影响安第斯山脉未来的径流和水资源供应，将对当地经济和人口产生重大而广泛的影响。如果没有更好、更详细地了解未来气候变化将如何影响安第斯山脉的冰川和水文系统，就无法制定缓解和适应战略。