P2C2: High-resolution Reconstruction of the South American Monsoon History from Isotopic Proxies and Forward Modeling

P2C2：从同位素代理和正演模拟高分辨率重建南美季风历史

• 批准号: 1303828
• 负责人: Mathias Vuille
• 金额: $ 51.3万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1303828&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; resolution; Reconstruction; South; American

The South American summer monsoon (SASM) is of great socio-economic relevance to (sub)tropical South America, delivering water for ecosystem integrity and human activities including agriculture, sanitation, hydropower production and many other socioeconomic purposes. Year-to-year variations in monsoon strength, onset and demise dates have been linked to drought and floods and can cause widespread economic damage. Yet little is known about how the SASM has varied in the past and how it responds to changes in natural (volcanic or solar) and man-made (aerosols and greenhouse gases) perturbations. In this project, a scientist from the State University of New York at Albany and his collaborators will reconstruct the SASM history for the past 1000 years using ice core data from the Quelccaya ice cap in the Peruvian Andes to learn more about the envelope of natural monsoon variability. The Quelccaya site was chosen because almost all snowfall is associated with the SASM (~85%), it contains a long, high-resolution and precisely-dated ice-core record, and has been the focus of long-term on-site climatologic and glaciologic monitoring and calibration programs. Using these on-site data sets, combined with isotope-enabled model simulations for the past millennium, the scientists will develop a so-called forward model that allows reconstructing monsoon variations upstream over the Amazon basin since the year 850 AD. Given the growing concerns over future changes in monsoon characteristics due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, a better understanding of natural monsoon variability and its sensitivity to external forcing is absolutely essential. The project's progress will be documented on the Quelccaya blog website. The project also includes additional educational aspects such as training of a graduate student and a Postdoctoral Research Associate, and integrating methods and results developed in this project into undergraduate and graduate classrooms.

南美夏季风 (SASM) 与南美洲（亚）热带地区具有重大社会经济相关性，为生态系统完整性和人类活动（包括农业、卫生、水力发电和许多其他社会经济目的）提供水源。季风强度、爆发和结束日期的逐年变化与干旱和洪水有关，并可能造成广泛的经济损失。然而，人们对 SASM 在过去如何变化以及它如何响应自然（火山或太阳）和人为（气溶胶和温室气体）扰动的变化知之甚少。在这个项目中，纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校的科学家和他的合作者将利用秘鲁安第斯山脉奎尔卡亚冰盖的冰芯数据重建过去 1000 年的 SASM 历史，以了解更多有关自然季风包络的信息可变性。选择奎尔卡亚地点是因为几乎所有降雪都与 SASM 有关（~85%），它包含长期、高分辨率和精确日期的冰芯记录，并且一直是长期现场气候学的焦点以及冰川监测和校准计划。利用这些现场数据集，结合过去千年的同位素模型模拟，科学家们将开发出一种所谓的正演模型，可以重建自公元 850 年以来亚马逊盆地上游的季风变化。由于温室气体浓度增加，人们越来越担心未来季风特征的变化，因此更好地了解自然季风变化及其对外部强迫的敏感性是绝对必要的。该项目的进展将记录在 Quelccaya 博客网站上。该项目还包括其他教育方面的内容，例如研究生和博士后研究员的培训，以及将该项目开发的方法和结果整合到本科生和研究生课堂中。

项目成果

Climate changes in Northeastern Brazil from deglacial to Meghalayan periods and related environmental impacts

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106655
• 发表时间: 2020-12-15
• 期刊: QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Utida, Giselle;Cruz, Francisco W.;Edwards, R. Lawrence
• 通讯作者: Edwards, R. Lawrence