Impacts and Consequences of Predicted Climate Change on Andean Glaciation and Runoff

预测气候变化对安第斯冰川和径流的影响和后果

• 批准号: 0519415
• 负责人: Mathias Vuille
• 金额: $ 21.76万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-02-01 至 2009-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0519415&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impacts; Consequences; Predicted; Climate; Change; Impacts; Consequences; Predicted; Climate; Change

0519415VuilleThe tropical Andes are one of the regions of the globe where recent climate change ismost evident, consistent with the notion that high-elevation mountain ranges that extend into themid-troposphere will experience greater warming. As a result glaciers are receding throughout thetropical Andes, with potentially severe consequences for the availability of drinking water, andwater for irrigation, mining and hydropower production.General Circulation Models (GCMs) run with a 2.CO2 scenario predict an additionalwarming of more than 2.5.C by the end of the century. However large uncertainties exist aboutthese future projections, especially because the coarse resolution of GCMs is inadequate toresolve the meso- and local-scale circulation features associated with the steep Andeantopography. To accurately understand and predict future climate change and its impact on tropicalAndean glaciers, higher resolution models and a better simulation of variables other thantemperature are required.We propose to simulate climate variability and change in the Andes under both presentdayconditions (1961-90 and 1958-2001) and two different IPCC-SRES emission scenarios(2071-2100) with a regional climate model (PRECIS) to gain a better understanding of howfuture climate change might affect tropical Andean glaciers.Results from our regional climate model will be validated with observational data fromspace before they are used as input into a glacier-climate model (ITGG 2.0) to simulate howglacier mass balance will be affected by future climate change. The simulated present-day massbalance of selected glaciers will be compared with observational records from the tropical Andesto verify the accuracy of our results. To gain a better understanding of the consequences ofglacier retreat, the ITGG 2.0 model will also be used to simulate changes in runoff from Andeanwatersheds. The anticipated results of our proposed research are:1) The use of a high-resolution model will improve simulations of climate in this area of complexterrain and yield more accurate predictions of future climate change than are available to datefrom GCM.s.2) An in-depth model validation with observational data will lead to a better assessment of modelperformance (for both the RCM and the ITGG 2.0).3) We will for the first time establish robust projections of how glaciation and runoff will changein this region at the end of the 21st century. This has important implications for the anticipatedfuture water shortage in the region and will provide much needed information to implementadaptation and mitigation strategies.4) Finally we anticipate a significant model improvement as a result of using regional climatemodel data instead of course resolution reanalysis data as input into the ITGG 2.0 model.We strongly believe that our proposed research addresses a key issue related to futureclimate change in the tropical Andes, which is of high scientific interest but also of primarysocio-economic relevance for the region. The potential for a future water crisis is evident and thiswater shortage is related to a projected future change in runoff, due to the observed rapid glacierretreat. The scientific merit of this proposal is therefore to gain a better understanding of bothmechanisms and consequences related to the disappearance of tropical Andean glaciers. Thisincreased knowledge on how fast and how far glaciers will recede and how much this will affectfuture runoff and water availability from the Andes will have a significant and broad impact onlocal economies and populations. Without a better and much more detailed knowledge of howfuture climate change will affect glaciological and hydrological systems in the Andes, nomitigation and adaptation strategies can be put in place.

0519415vuillthe Tropical Andes是全球地区的一个地区之一，最近的气候变化是最明显的，这与以下观点一致，即高海拔山脉范围延伸到Themid-Tropopposphere的范围将体验到更大的变暖。结果，冰川在整个杂种安第斯山脉中都退缩，对饮用水的可用性，以及灌溉，采矿和水力发电生产的可用性带来了严重的后果。具有2.CO2场景的General Crockulation Models（GCMS）预测到本世纪末的额外温度会增加2.5.c。无论这些未来的预测，都存在很大的不确定性，尤其是因为GCM的粗糙分辨率不足以托雷斯（Toresold）与陡峭的安提斯（Andeantopography）相关的中间和局部规模的循环特征。 To accurately understand and predict future climate change and its impact on tropicalAndean glaciers, higher resolution models and a better simulation of variables other thantemperature are required.We propose to simulate climate variability and change in the Andes under both presentdayconditions (1961-90 and 1958-2001) and two different IPCC-SRES emission scenarios(2071-2100) with a regional climate model (PRECIS) to gain a better了解现场气候变化可能会影响热带安第斯冰川。我们区域气候模型的结果将通过Space的观察数据进行验证，然后将其用作输入到冰川气候模型（ITGG 2.0）中，以模拟Howglacier质量平衡将受到未来气候变化的影响。将选定冰川的当前质量平衡与热带和热带的观察记录进行比较，验证了我们结果的准确性。为了更好地了解Glacier Retreat的后果，ITGG 2.0模型还将用于模拟Andeanwatersheds的径流变化。我们拟议的研究的预期结果是：1）使用高分辨率模型将改善该络合物领域中气候的模拟，并产生对未来气候变化的更准确预测，而不是date GCM.S.2）2）与观察数据的深入模型验证相比，观察性数据可以更好地评估ROB和ROB的均可为RCM提供更好的评​​估（对于RCM 2.0）。冰川和径流将在21世纪末改变该地区。这对该地区的预期供水短缺具有重要意义，并将提供急需的信息来实现AdaDaptation和缓解策略。4）最后，由于使用区域性的ClimateModel数据，我们预计，我们预计会有重大的模型改进，而不是课程分辨率的重新分析数据，而不是对ITGG 2.0模型的投入，我们强烈地相信，我们的质量研究与关键的研究有关，并且在关键的研究中，该关键问题是在关键的问题上，该关键涉及到了未来的范围，该问题是在未来的范围，该问题是在未来的范围。但也与该地区的主要经济相关性。由于观察到的速度快速冰川雷动，因此未来水危机的潜力很明显，而且这种水的短缺与预计未来的径流变化有关。因此，该提案的科学优点是更好地了解与热带安第斯冰川消失有关的各种力学和后果。关于冰川将会恢复的速度和距离，这将影响安第斯山脉的径流和水的可用性，这将产生重大且广泛的影响，这将产生重大且广泛的影响，因此，这将产生巨大的影响。如果没有更好，更详细的知识，就可以在安第斯山脉中影响冰川和水文系统，就可以实现素食和水文系统，因此可以实施提名和适应策略。