Collaborative Research: VOCALS--Climate Simulation and Operational Forecasting Using a Regional Earth System Modeling Framework

合作研究：VOCALS——使用区域地球系统建模框架进行气候模拟和业务预测

• 批准号: 0747533
• 负责人: Alexander Hall
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-03-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0747533&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; VOCALS; Climate; Simulation

The VOCALS (VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study - VAMOS is the Variability of the American Monsoon System project) region within the Southeast Pacific is a globally important regional coupled climate regime involving equatorward winds, orographic channeling, arid land margins, upwelling currents, oceanic biogeochemical cycling, marine stratus clouds, and aerosols. A principal motivation for the VOCALS project is that global model errors in this region degrade the quality of their simulations throughout the tropical Pacific, with substantial impacts on the modeled and predicted global climate. It is difficult or impossible to address these errors directly in global models with currently available computational resources, because the mechanisms that determine the mean state and variability have much finer spatial scales than global models can resolve. Moreover, these mechanisms do not lend themselves to unique and physically constrained treatments. A further complication is that the mechanisms involve interactions among all major components of the Earth system, including physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface, as well as natural and anthropogenic influences on marine and atmospheric chemistry. Simulating these interlocking processes requires high resolution (several kilometers) with coupled atmosphere, ocean, and land components in both physical and chemical submodels.In this project a regional Earth-system modeling framework will be developed, with an atmospheric model coupled to a land surface model and an oceanic model. The atmospheric model includes chemical transport and process models, while the regional oceanic model contains full biogeochemistry. This framework will be used to explicate the climate dynamics of the VOCALS region and to leverage VOCAL REx (Regional Experiment) measurements through careful experimental design and model-validation and data-interpretation studies.First, meteorological and aerosol forecasts will be provided for VOCALS REx during the campaign. After VOCALS REx, a retrospective simulation of the VOCAL REx period will be carried out using the full Earth-system model. The simulation's high resolution is intended to increase the interpretability of measurements by placing them in geographical and climate-variability context and to enhance the usefulness of measurements for model validation and evaluation. A simulation of the VOCALS region covering the past 60 years will place the VOCALS-REx observations and simulations in the context of climate variability. Finally, the VOCALS region will be downscaled from an NCAR CCSM (National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model) global solution, placing the realism gained through careful development and VOCALS-REx-based validation of the regional model in the context of the errors in a major global climate model. All these simulations will be performed on the same model grid to allow for systematic comparison of model solutions with observations and with each other. The simulations will provide opportunities for analyses of interlocking physical and chemical processes that determine the climate of the VOCALS region. These include studies of the geographical distribution of natural and anthropogenic aerosols; the impact of these aerosols on cloud properties and the effects of clouds on aerosol scavenging; the intricate and highly-structured couplings in the physical system determining key climate variables such as stratus amount and upwelling; and the oceanographic processes controlling air-sea fluxes of DMS (dimethyl sulfide).Broader impacts of this project are in its contributions to building human infrastructure for science research. Through interactions with colleagues in Peru and Chile, the investigators will foster international scientific collaboration, and they will train graduate students and postdoctoral fellows. The project will leave a legacy of modeling infrastructure, as the first time a holistic regional Earth-systems approach has been applied so systematically to any region. The modeling framework to be developed can serve as a prototype for Earth-system modeling in the service of climate prediction and climate applications. Finally, the PIs propose to capitalize on the unique measurements to be taken during the VOCALS-REx field campaign to understand the interlocking physical and chemical dynamics of the VOCALS region and to diagnose the causes of large, persistent errors in global models errors, potentially paving the way for improvements in climate predictions.

东南太平洋地区的人声（Vamos Ocean-Cloud-atmosphere-land研究-VAMOS是美国季风系统项目的变异性）是一个全球重要的区域耦合气候状态，涉及赤道风，地形渠道，弧形土地边缘，上升潮流潮流河流河流河流河流。 ，海洋生物地球化学循环，海洋地层云和气溶胶。人声项目的主要动机是，该地区的全球模型错误降低了整个热带太平洋的模拟质量，对建模和预测的全球气候产生了重大影响。在具有当前可用的计算资源的全球模型中，很难或不可能直接解决这些错误，因为确定平均状态和可变性的机制比全球模型可以解决的空间尺度更明显。此外，这些机制并不适合独特的和身体上约束的治疗方法。另一个并发症是，机制涉及地球系统所有主要组成部分之间的相互作用，包括大气，海洋和陆地表面的物理过程，以及对海洋和大气化学的自然和人为影响。模拟这些互锁过程需要高分辨率（几公里），并在物理和化学子模型中均具有耦合的气氛，海洋和土地成分。在该项目中，将开发区域地球系统建模框架，并具有大气模型与地表耦合模型和海洋模型。大气模型包括化学运输和过程模型，而区域海洋模型包含完整的生物地球化学。该框架将用于解释人声区域的气候动态，并通过仔细的实验​​设计和模型验证和数据解释研究来利用声乐雷克斯（区域实验）测量。首先，气象和气雾预测将用于人声雷克斯在竞选期间。在人声雷克斯之后，将使用完整的地球系统模型对声带时期进行回顾性模拟。模拟的高分辨率旨在通过将测量值置于地理和气候变化性环境中，并增强测量值对模型验证和评估的有用性来提高测量值的解释性。涵盖过去60年的人声区域的模拟将在气候变化的背景下将人声霸权的观察和模拟放在。最后，人声区域将从NCAR CCSM（国家大气研究社区气候系统模型）全球解决方案中降低，这将通过仔细开发和基于人声 - 瑞克斯对区域模型的验证获得的现实主义在这些错误的背景下获得。在主要的全球气候模型中。所有这些仿真将在同一模型网格上进行，以使模型解决方案与观测值以及彼此之间进行系统的比较。这些模拟将为确定人声区域气候的物理和化学过程的分析提供机会。其中包括对天然和人为气溶胶的地理分布的研究；这些气溶胶对云特性的影响以及云对气溶胶清除的影响；物理系统中的复杂且结构高度结构化的耦合决定了关键的气候变量，例如地层和上升流；以及控制DMS空气通量（二甲基硫化物）的海洋学过程。该项目的Boader影响在于它为建立人类的科学研究基础设施的贡献。通过与秘鲁和智利的同事互动，调查人员将培养国际科学合作，他们将培训研究生和博士后研究员。该项目将留下建模基础架构的遗产，因为这是系统地将整体区域地球系统方法如此系统地应用于任何区域的首次。要开发的建模框架可以作为在气候预测和气候应用服务中为地球系统建模的原型。最后，PI提议利用在人声霸权野外活动中要进行的独特测量，以了解人声区域的互锁物理和化学动力学，并诊断出全球模型错误中持续存在错误的原因，可能会铺路改善气候预测的方式。