Understanding and Constraining Future Arctic Climate Change

了解和限制未来的北极气候变化

• 批准号: 0714083
• 负责人: Alexander Hall
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0714083&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Constraining; Future; Arctic; Climate

Hall 0714083UCLAFunds are provided to understand and constrain the important arctic sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) in the current generation of climate models. To reduce the spread between simulations of feedbacks in models, it is necessary to identify observational constraints that can be used to evaluate the feedback's realism. The central difficulty here is that the feedbacks are aspects of future climate, and cannot be observed directly. To circumvent this, the strategy of the principal investigator (PI) is to quantify simulated SIAF strength as it impacts the most observable and prominent example of externally-forced climate variability in the extratropics - the current climate's seasonal cycle. If simulated SIAF strength in the current seasonal cycle is an excellent predictor of feedback strength in the climate change context, then observational constraints on the feedback in the current seasonal cycle should lead directly to reductions in the intermodel spread of feedback strength in the future climate predictions. This appears to have been the case with the PI's previous work on snow albedo feedback, and a strategy for producing similar results for SIAF that takes into account the feedback's peculiarities has been outlined. An essential counterpart to this effort will be determining which aspects of current climate simulations influence SIAF strength and its intermodel spread the most. The PI has developed a mathematical framework to facilitate these diagnoses from model output. It is anticipated that the work will focus on sea ice albedo parameterizations, but will also examine the role of arctic clouds in modulating SIAF, as well as the role of ocean-sea-ice interaction.

提供了0714083的厅，以理解和限制当前一代气候模型中重要的北极海上冰冰球反馈（SIAF）。为了减少模型反馈模拟之间的传播，有必要确定可用于评估反馈现实主义的观察性约束。这里的主要困难是反馈是未来气候的各个方面，无法直接观察到。为了避免这一点，主要研究者（PI）的策略是量化模拟的SIAF强度，因为它影响了当前气候季节性周期的外部气候变化的最可观察，最突出的例子。如果在当前季节性周期中模拟的SIAF强度是气候变化环境中反馈强度的极好预测指标，那么在当前季节周期中反馈的观察性约束应直接导致未来气候预测中反馈强度的跨模型扩散的差异。 PI先前在Snow Arbedo反馈方面的工作似乎就是这种情况，以及为SIAF产生类似结果的策略，考虑到了反馈的特殊性。与这项工作的重要同行是确定当前气候模拟的哪些方面影响SIAF强度及其间建模最大。 PI开发了一个数学框架，以促进模型输出中的这些诊断。预计这项工作将集中在海冰反照率参数上，但还将检查北极云在调节SIAF的作用以及海洋冰相互作用的作用。