Understanding and Constraining Future Arctic Climate Change

了解和限制未来的北极气候变化

• 批准号: 0714083
• 负责人: Alexander Hall
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0714083&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Understanding; Constraining; Future; Arctic; Climate

Hall 0714083UCLAFunds are provided to understand and constrain the important arctic sea-ice-albedo feedback (SIAF) in the current generation of climate models. To reduce the spread between simulations of feedbacks in models, it is necessary to identify observational constraints that can be used to evaluate the feedback's realism. The central difficulty here is that the feedbacks are aspects of future climate, and cannot be observed directly. To circumvent this, the strategy of the principal investigator (PI) is to quantify simulated SIAF strength as it impacts the most observable and prominent example of externally-forced climate variability in the extratropics - the current climate's seasonal cycle. If simulated SIAF strength in the current seasonal cycle is an excellent predictor of feedback strength in the climate change context, then observational constraints on the feedback in the current seasonal cycle should lead directly to reductions in the intermodel spread of feedback strength in the future climate predictions. This appears to have been the case with the PI's previous work on snow albedo feedback, and a strategy for producing similar results for SIAF that takes into account the feedback's peculiarities has been outlined. An essential counterpart to this effort will be determining which aspects of current climate simulations influence SIAF strength and its intermodel spread the most. The PI has developed a mathematical framework to facilitate these diagnoses from model output. It is anticipated that the work will focus on sea ice albedo parameterizations, but will also examine the role of arctic clouds in modulating SIAF, as well as the role of ocean-sea-ice interaction.

大厅 0714083UCLA 提供资金用于理解和限制当前一代气候模型中重要的北极海冰反照率反馈 (SIAF)。为了减少模型中反馈模拟之间的差异，有必要确定可用于评估反馈真实性的观察约束。这里的主要困难是反馈是未来气候的各个方面，无法直接观察到。为了避免这种情况，首席研究员 (PI) 的策略是量化模拟 SIAF 强度，因为它影响温带地区外部强迫气候变化最明显和最突出的例子 - 当前气候的季节周期。如果当前季节周期中模拟的 SIAF 强度是气候变化背景下反馈强度的出色预测器，那么当前季节周期中反馈的观测限制应直接导致未来气候预测中反馈强度的模型间传播的减少。 PI 之前关于雪反照率反馈的工作似乎就是这种情况，并且已经概述了为 SIAF 生成类似结果的策略，该策略考虑了反馈的特殊性。这项工作的一个重要对应部分是确定当前气候模拟的哪些方面对 SIAF 强度及其模型间传播影响最大。 PI 开发了一个数学框架来促进根据模型输出进行这些诊断。预计这项工作将重点关注海冰反照率参数化，但还将研究北极云在调节 SIAF 中的作用，以及海洋-海冰相互作用的作用。