Using Emergent Constraints to Reduce Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

利用紧急约束减少区域气候变化的不确定性

• 批准号: 2303610
• 负责人: Alexander Hall
• 金额: $ 89.95万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2303610&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Using; Emergent; Constraints; Reduce; Uncertainty

There is a growing need for robust projections of future climate change at spatial scales relevant to policymakers and stakeholders. However, our understanding of the many risks associated with climate change at these regional scales is often limited by uncertainty in climate model projections (i.e., different climate models give different answers about future climate). The range of answers across the models is particularly large when it comes to changes in the water cycle, which are of great societal relevance. Here, the investigators will rely on a leading climate model evaluation technique that uses observations of the current climate to narrow the range of climate model answers regarding future changes to precipitation, drought, and streamflow across regions of the globe. Moreover, this work will expand our knowledge of the key sources of model disagreement to inform areas of future development for climate modeling centers. The investigators will also, for the first time, apply this methodology to a collection of high-resolution climate model simulations covering the Western United States. These simulations better represent the complex topography of the region than global climate models, and thus allow for more reliable depictions of mountain snowpack, which plays a pivotal role in the region’s water cycle. This research will seek to reduce uncertainty in the snowpack’s response to future warming and apply this knowledge to better understand risks associated with freshwater availability and drought.By focusing on climate metrics relating to the water cycle, which have enormous implications in water-stressed regions like the Western United States, this research will be valuable to a variety of constituencies outside the scientific community. Building off existing stakeholder collaborations, the investigators will engage with several groups across the Western United States to help shape the research so that the results have broad societal relevance. This project will provide training opportunities for a graduate student and a postdoctoral scholar. Additionally, the investigators will convene sessions at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting to catalyze discussions regarding relevant research. Lastly, a virtual workshop involving representatives from water resource management, wild land and fire management, and public health communities from across the Western United States will be held to disseminate the research as a capstone to the project.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

政策制定者和利益相关者越来越需要在空间尺度上对未来气候变化进行稳健的预测。然而，我们对这些区域尺度上与气候变化相关的许多风险的理解往往受到气候模型预测的不确定性（即不同的气候模型）的限制。气候模型对未来气候给出了不同的答案）。当涉及到具有重大社会意义的水循环变化时，模型的答案范围特别大，研究人员将依赖于领先的气候模型评估技术。利用对当前气候的观测来缩小范围此外，这项工作还将扩大我们对模型分歧主要来源的了解，为气候建模中心的未来发展领域提供信息。首次将该方法应用于覆盖美国西部的一系列高分辨率气候模型模拟，这些模拟比全球气候模型更好地代表了该地区的复杂地形，从而可以更可靠地表示山地积雪。 ，其中发挥着举足轻重的作用这项研究将寻求减少积雪对未来变暖反应的不确定性，并应用这些知识来更好地了解与淡水供应和干旱相关的风险。通过关注与水循环相关的气候指标，这对水有巨大的影响。 -像美国西部这样的压力地区，这项研究将对科学界以外的各种群体有价值。在现有的利益相关者合作的基础上，研究人员将与美国西部的几个团体合作，帮助制定研究，以便成果具有广泛的社会该项目将为研究生和博士后学者提供培训机会，研究人员将在美国地球物理联盟秋季会议上召开会议，以促进有关相关研究的讨论。来自美国西部各地的荒地和火灾管理以及公共卫生界将举行反思，以传播研究成果作为该项目的顶石。该奖项是 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力评估进行评估，被认为值得支持。优点以及更广泛的影响审查标准。