Dynamic Risk Assessment of Inherently Safe Chemical Processes: Using Accident Precursor Data

本质安全化学过程的动态风险评估：使用事故前兆数据

• 批准号: 0553941
• 负责人: Warren Seider
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-01-01 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0553941&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamic; Risk; Assessment; Inherently; Safe

ABSTRACTPI: Warren D. Seider and Ulku Oktem Institution: University of PennsylvaniaProposal Number: 0553941Title: Dynamic Risk Assessment of Inherently Safe Chemical Processes: Using Accident Precursor DataIntellectual Merit. Chemical engineers, researchers, the chemical process industries, and regulators have focused on improving the safety of chemical plants since the accidents at Flixborough, Seveso, and Bhopal. In addition, due to terrorism concerns since 9/11, additional security standards have been applied to the chemical and petrochemical industries. It is therefore desirable to have inherent safety and security, and dynamic risk assessment and reliability as vital ingredients in the planning, development, design, control, and operations of chemical plants.This research project aims to develop:(i) Inherently safer plant (reactor-separator-recycle) designs using game theory: Initially, design techniques using game theory will be extended to design inherently safer polymerization reaction processes. These techniques involve shifting the operating regimes from unstable, non-minimum phase behavior (with inverse response) towards stable, minimum phase behavior (without inverse response) at comparable profitability levels, thereby enhancing inherent safety. Designs are obtained that account for the tradeoffs between profitability, controllability, safety and/or product quality, and flexibility, by solving a multi-objective optimization problem using game theory. Previous work will be extended to include distillation columns, tubular reactors, and fluidized-catalytic reactors, among other process units.(ii) Plant-specific, dynamic risk assessment techniques using accident precursor data: The PIs have developed a mathematical model to estimate the failure probabilities of various critical accident scenarios, associated with a process unit given an abnormal event, using probability theory, including copulas and Bayesian analysis. The method will be extended for plant-wide analysis and tested with chemical industries, including Rohm & Haas (which participates in the Wharton Risk Management Centers Near-miss Management Project [NMMP]), and the incident databases RMP & NRC, with accidents being investigated by the Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB). Broader Impacts. This approach provides a dynamic method to perform risk and vulnerability assessment of chemical plants considering the uncertainty as well as the variability in failure probabilities. The technique, using high-speed computers, will permit more thorough safety analyses, providing safer chemical plants. The models and software will be used by the chemical industries and in design courses at the University of Pennsylvania. These risk-assessment techniques should lead to more quantitative safety coverage in the PIs design textbook. Although the project focuses on failure probabilities of chemical plants, these techniques can be easily extended to other industries/organizations where precursors are important. The work is multidisciplinary in nature involving chemical engineers, risk analysts, epidemiologists, and statisticians.

摘要：Warren D. Seider和Ulku Oktem机构：宾夕法尼亚大学Propoposal的编号：0553941TITLE：对固有安全化学过程的动态风险评估：使用事故前体性数据文明优点。自从弗利克斯伯勒（Flixborough），塞维索（Seveso）和博帕尔（Bhopal）发生事故以来，化学工程师，研究人员，化学工艺行业和监管机构一直致力于提高化学工厂的安全性。此外，由于自9/11以来的恐怖主义问题，已将额外的安全标准应用于化学和石化行业。 因此，应具有固有的安全性，以及作为化学植物的计划，开发，设计，控制和操作中的重要成分的动态风险评估和可靠性。本研究项目旨在开发：（i）使用游戏理论的设计，使用游戏理论的设计技术是固有的，即固有的植物（固有的植物）（反应器 - 隔离器）的设计：固有的设计方法是固有的。 这些技术涉及将操作方案从不稳定的非最低阶段行为（具有逆响应）转移到可比的利润率水平下稳定的最小阶段行为（无反应），从而提高了固有的安全性。 通过使用游戏理论解决多目标优化问题，可以获得设计的设计，以解决盈利能力，可控性，安全性和/或产品质量以及灵活性之间的权衡。 先前的工作将扩展到包括蒸馏柱，管状反应器和流动性催化反应器以及其他过程单位。（ii）使用事故前体数据使用植物特异性的，动态的风险评估技术：PIS开发了一种数学模型，以估计与概率分析的概率分析的概率和分析性的概率相关性，包括对均值的概述，包括对均值的陪伴。 该方法将扩展以进行植物范围的分析，并通过包括Rohm＆Haas在内的化学工业进行测试（Rohm＆Haas（参加了沃顿风险管理中心近乎失误的管理项目[NMMP]），并且事件数据库RMP＆NRC，事故是由化学安全和危害调查委员会（CSB）调查的。更广泛的影响。这种方法提供了一种动态方法，以考虑不确定性以及故障概率的变异性对化学植物进行风险和脆弱性评估。 该技术使用高速计算机将允许进行更彻底的安全分析，从而提供更安全的化学植物。 这些模型和软件将被化学工业和宾夕法尼亚大学的设计课程使用。 这些风险评估技术应在PIS设计教科书中导致更定量的安全覆盖范围。 尽管该项目侧重于化学植物的故障概率，但这些技术可以很容易地扩展到前体很重要的其他行业/组织。这项工作本质上是多学科的，涉及化学工程师，风险分析师，流行病学家和统计学家。