The Health Consequences of Urban Scaling

城市规模扩张对健康的影响

• 批准号: 10247542
• 负责人: Usama Bilal
• 金额: $ 39.13万
• 依托单位: DREXEL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-07 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10247542
• 关键词: Accidental Injury; Affect; Americas; Argentina; Attenuated; Brazil; Chile; Chronic Disease; Cities; Collaborations; Colombia; Communicable Diseases; Complex; Costa Rica; Country; Crime; Data; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Dimensions; El Salvador; Ensure; Environment; Epidemiology; Foundations; Future; Gases; Goals; Growth; Guatemala; Health; Health Promotion; Heterogeneity; Hypertension; Infrastructure; Institution; Intervention; Latin America; Latin American; Lead; Leadership; Length; Link; Literature; Medicine; Mental Depression; Metabolic Diseases; Mexico; Modeling; Nicaragua; Obesity; Outcome; Output; Peru; Policies; Pollution; Population; Population Sizes; Positioning Attribute; Prevalence; Process; Property; Public Health Schools; Publications; Research; Research Assistant; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Resources; Sampling; Science; Service provision; Social Interaction; Substance abuse problem; Surface; System; Training; United States; United States National Center for Health Statistics; Universities; Urban Health; Urban Population; Urbanization; Water; career; collaborative environment; density; innovation; insight; mortality; nutrition; population health; professor; social; social health determinants; success; urban area

Summary The main goal of this project is to enhance the understanding of the processes and dynamics linking urban growth to population health in order to identify promising policies and interventions to promote health in cities all over the world. By 2030, around 60% of the world's population is expected to live in urban areas. With the increase in chronic diseases and the re-emergence of infectious diseases in urban cores in the developing world, there is an urgent need to understand the health consequences of this urban growth and how it could be managed to promote population health. Cities are complex systems where the density of social interactions generates emergent phenomena, including the scaling properties of urban features. Previous research in the complex systems literature has shown how social outputs such as wealth, crime and innovation scale super-linearly (grow more than expected with city size), meaning that their per capita rate is larger in larger cities due to increased amount of social contacts because of network effects. On the other hand, physical infrastructure such as the length of the road network or the number of gas stations scale sub-linearly (grow less than expected) due to increased efficiency thanks to economies of scale. This proposal aims to: (1) study the scaling properties of nine health outcomes in a heterogeneous sample of 718 cities in the US and 10 Latin American countries; (2) investigate the underlying correlates of the scaling properties of these health outcomes; and (3) develop a system dynamics model to understand the mechanisms behind the scaling properties of health outcomes, to generate hypotheses for future studies. Data for Latin America in Aims 1 and 2 will be obtained from the SALURBAL study, a collaboration of 15 institutions in 10 Latin American countries (Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Brazil and Argentina), led by Drexel University. US data for Aim 1 will be obtained from the NCHS, while US Aim 2 data will be obtained from the RECVD study (1R01AG049970). Aim 3 will use data and parameters from Aims 1 and 2. Given the rapid rate of urbanization globally, our results will have broad implications for understanding of the drivers of urban health worldwide and for urban policies to promote population health. This study will help the investigator to jumpstart a career in complex systems epidemiology and urban health, leveraging and deepening his training in both fields and allowing the investigator to achieve research independence in one of the most promising interdisciplinary collaborative environments in the field of urban health.

概括 该项目的主要目标是增强对过程和动态的理解 将城市增长与人口健康联系起来，以确定有希望的政策和干预措施 促进世界各地城市的健康。到2030年，世界上约60％的人口是 预计将生活在城市地区。随着慢性疾病的增加和重新出现 发展中国家城市核心的传染病，迫切需要 了解这一城市增长的健康后果及其如何设法 促进人口健康。城市是复杂的系统，社交互动的密度 产生新兴现象，包括城市特征的缩放特性。以前的 复杂体系文献中的研究表明，社交成果如何犯罪，犯罪 超级线性的创新量表（随着城市规模而增长比预期的要多），这意味着他们 由于社会接触的数量增加，因此大城市的人均率更高 网络效应。另一方面，物理基础设施，例如道路的长度 网络或加油站的数量亚线性（由于 得益于规模经济的提高效率。该建议的目的是：（1）研究缩放 在美国718个城市的异质样本中，九种健康结果的特性和10个 拉丁美洲国家； （2）研究缩放特性的基本相关性 这些健康结果； （3）开发一个系统动力学模型，以了解 健康结果的缩放特性背后的机制，以产生假设 未来的研究。 AIMS 1和2中拉丁美洲的数据将从郊区获得 研究，在10个拉丁美洲国家的15个机构的合作（墨西哥，危地马拉，EL） 由德雷克塞尔（Drexel）领导 大学。 AIM 1的美国数据将从NCH获得，而我们的AIM 2数据将是 从RECVD研究（1R01AG049970）获得。 AIM 3将使用数据和参数 目标1和2。鉴于全球城市化速度迅速，我们的结果将有所广泛 了解全球城市卫生驱动因素以及城市政策的影响 促进人口健康。这项研究将帮助调查人员开始从事复杂事业 系统流行病学和城市健康，利用和加深他在这两个领域的培训 并允许研究人员在最有前途的人之一中实现研究独立性 城市健康领域的跨学科协作环境。