An Evaluation of the Night Restriction and Passenger Limitation Components of Gra

格拉斯哥夜间限制和乘客限制部分的评估

• 批准号: 7293116
• 负责人: JAMES C. FELL
• 金额: $ 19.06万
• 依托单位: PACIFIC INSTITUTE FOR RES AND EVALUATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2009-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7293116
• 关键词: 17 year old; Address; Advocate; Alcohols; Automobile Driving; Censuses; Cessation of life; Data; District of Columbia; Effectiveness; Elements; Ensure; Ethnic Origin; Evaluation; Evaluation Research; Exposure to; Funding; Gender; Gender Role; Hour; Impact evaluation; Individual; Institutes; Laws; Lead; Licensing; Modeling; Numbers; Play; Policies; Population; Public Health; Race; Rate; Records; Reporting; Research Personnel; Research Project Grants; Risk; Role; Safety; Savings; Series; Shapes; Staging; Statutes and Laws; Subcategory; Supervision; System; Teenagers; Time; Uncertainty; Young driver; age group; base; experience; falls; older driver; programs; protective effect; research study; size

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Previous studies have demonstrated that GDL laws reduce the total number of crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers. Analyses of novice driver crashes have indicated that 64% involve nighttime crashes or crashes in which a teenaged driver was transporting a teen passenger. This has led to the inclusion in most GDL laws of restrictions on nighttime driving and carrying underage passengers during the early period of solo driving. The enthusiasm of safety advocates and state legislators for GDL laws has increased, and currently, some 44 states have such legislation. Many, however, lack the model nighttime and passenger prohibitions that appear to be important elements for effective laws. Further, it is not clear whether the reported reductions in crashes involving 16- and 17-year-old drivers are the result of GDL laws reducing the number of teenagers seeking licenses or the protective impact of the increased driving supervision required by GDL laws. The objective of this research project is to go beyond the previous GDL studies, all but one of which has been conducted using individual states. By using 16 years of data from the national census of fatal crashes for all 50 states plus DC, we plan to address the following questions: (1) To what extent do GDL laws reduce fatal crash involvements of 16- and 17-year-old drivers? (2) To what extent do nighttime restrictions in GDL laws reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements during nighttime hours and overall? (3) To what extent do passenger limitations reduce novice driver fatal crash involvements while transporting teen passengers? (4) What is the role, if any, that gender and race/ethnicity play in shaping the effects of GDL programs? (5) To what extent do state GDL laws discourage or delay the decision of 16- and 17-year-olds to seek licensing, thereby reducing their exposure to crash involvement. A 51-jurisdiction (50 states plus DC) study of 16- and 17-year-old driver licensing rates and involvements in fatal crashes using 16 years of data (1990 to 2005) from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) will be conducted. To obtain generalized effect-size estimates for the GDL laws, the analyses will be done using a longitudinal panel approach or a "cross-sectional-time series" approach. Two special restriction provisions will be analyzed separately, and if collinearity is not a significant problem, these provisions will be analyzed simultaneously. Appropriate crash subcategories (nighttime crashes and crashes with passengers) will be created to evaluate the two special provisions of GDL laws. The additional fatal crash savings provided by these two restrictions beyond that provided by GDL laws will be determined without such features. Population and license driver records will be used to compute licensing rates and those rates will be related to the presence or absence of a state GDL law. Finally, the potential effects that gender and race/ethnicity have on novice driver fatal crash involvement rates in states with GDL and states without GDL or without the two key components will be analyzed. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE STATEMENT This study will provide guidance to policymakers on the potential benefits of adding nighttime and passenger restriction provisions to an existing graduated driver licensing (GDL) law or the benefit of ensuring that a new GDL law contains such provisions. The role (if any) that gender and race/ethnicity will play in the effectiveness of GDL programs will be determined, and the extent to which GDL produces its beneficial effect on teen crashes by reducing licensing compared to through the protective effect of additional supervised driving.

描述（由申请人提供）：以前的研究表明，GDL法律减少了16岁和17岁驾驶员的撞车互动总数。对新手驾驶员撞车事故的分析表明，有64％的夜间撞车事故或一名少年驾驶员正在运送一名少年乘客的撞车事故。这导致了大多数GDL法律在夜间开车和运送未成年乘客的大多数限制定律中。安全倡导者和州议员对GDL法律的热情有所提高，目前，约有44个州有这样的立法。但是，许多人缺乏夜间模型和乘客禁令，这似乎是有效法律的重要要素。此外，尚不清楚涉及16岁和17岁驾驶员的坠机事故减少是GDL法律减少寻求许可证的青少年数量的结果，还是GDL法律要求增加的驾驶监督的保护性影响。该研究项目的目的是超越先前的GDL研究，除了一个使用单个状态外，所有这些都已进行。通过使用所有50个州以及DC的全国致命崩溃人口普查数据的16年数据，我们计划解决以下问题：（1）GDL法律在多大程度上减少了16岁和17岁驾驶员的致命崩溃介入？ （2）GDL法律的夜间限制在多大程度上减少了新手驾驶员在夜间和整体上的致命崩溃参与？ （3）乘客限制在多大程度上减少了新手驾驶员在运输青少年乘客时致命的坠机事故的参与？ （4）性别和种族/种族在塑造GDL计划的效果中起什么作用（如果有）？ （5）州GDL法律在多大程度上劝阻或延迟16岁和17岁的孩子寻求许可的决定，从而减少他们遭受坠机活动的影响。将对使用16年和17岁的驾驶员许可率以及使用16年的数据（1990年至2005年）进行的16岁和17岁驾驶员许可率和致命崩溃的研究（FARS）进行了51次寿司（50个州和DC）。为了获得GDL定律的一般效应大小估计，将使用纵向面板方法或“横截面序列”方法进行分析。将分别分析两个特殊的限制规定，如果共线性不是一个重大问题，则将同时分析这些规定。将创建适当的撞车子类别（夜间崩溃和乘客撞车）来评估GDL法律的两个特殊规定。这两个限制提供的额外的致命崩溃节省将在没有此类功能的情况下确定GDL法律提供的限制。人口和许可驾驶员记录将用于计算许可率，这些费率将与国家GDL法律的存在或不存在有关。最后，将分析性别和种族/族裔对新手驾驶员致命的坠机事故介入率的潜在影响，而GDL和没有GDL的州或没有两个关键组成部分的州。公共卫生相关性声明本研究将向决策者提供有关将夜间和乘客限制规定添加到现有的分级驾驶许可（GDL）法律的潜在好处的指导，或者确保新的GDL法律包含此类规定的好处。将确定性别和种族/种族的角色（如果有的话），将确定GDL计划的有效性，以及GDL在多余的监督驾驶的保护作用中通过减少许可而对青少年崩溃产生的有益效果的程度。