The future of major geriatric disorders in the US elderly

美国老年人主要老年疾病的未来

• 批准号: 8331020
• 负责人: ANATOLIY I YASHIN
• 金额: $ 13.79万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8331020
• 关键词: Accounting; Acute; Address; Affect; Age; Aging; Alzheimer' s Disease; Area; Asthma; Behavioral; Birth; Cancer Survivor; Characteristics; Chronic; Cohort Analysis; Cohort Effect; Comorbidity; Coronary heart disease; Data; Data Analyses; Demographic Aging; Dependence; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Disease; Education; Elderly; Epidemiology; Equilibrium; Future; Health; Heart Diseases; Incidence; Individual; Joints; Lead; Link; Long-Term Care; Longevity; Lung diseases; Malignant Neoplasms; Medical Surveillance; Medicare; Methods; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Obesity; Onset of illness; Parkinson Disease; Patients; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Prevalence; Race; Recovery; Regression Analysis; Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Risk Factors; Sampling; Series; Services; Simulate; Site; Smoking; Source; Specific qualifier value; Stratification; Stroke; Surveys; Survival Rate; Testing; Time; Work; burden of illness; cohort; disability-adjusted life years; disorder risk; hazard; improved; innovation; mortality; population health; prospective; sex; synergism; time use; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long term objective of the proposed research is to evaluate current epidemiological trends in major geriatric disorders including cancer, acute coronary heart disease (ACHD), asthma, Alzheimer?s (AD) disease. We will evaluate current and prospective trends in the incidence rates and patients? survival, separately for each of the selected diseases as well as for their combinations, taking into account possible synergism/antagonism between the diseases in samples of aging individuals from the National Long Term Care Survey linked with Medicare Service Use Files (NLTCS-M) and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) linked with Medicare Service Use Files along with 5% Medicare Service Use Files (SEER-M) as controls. Particular focus of the proposed research will be on evaluating these major epidemiological characteristics considering effects of dependence among diseases and possible recovery from certain diseases on disease free life span. The following specific aims will be addressed: 1) Evaluate cross-sectional age patterns and time trends in incidence, prevalence, recovery, and survival (i.e., mortality from the disease states) rates for elderly individuals of both sexes in the U.S. for four major geriatric conditions specified above using the NLTCS-M and SEER-M. 2) Develop versions of multistate cohort incidence/prevalence/survival models with parametric description of hazard rates. Using these models evaluate time trends for respective health characteristics listed above. 3) Examine the relationships between risks of disease onset in pairs of diseases listed above. Extend the elaborated multi-state models to describe development of co-morbidity. Apply extended models to the joint analyses of data on diseases showing highest connection. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The results of this study will contribute to better understanding connection among major diseases of the elderly in the U.S. population and create an appropriate background for predicting health/well-being/survival characteristics of the U.S. elderly in 2020, 2025 and 2030.

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议研究的长期目标是评估主要老年疾病的当前流行病学趋势，包括癌症、急性冠心病（ACHD）、哮喘、阿尔茨海默病（AD）。我们将评估发病率和患者的当前和未来趋势？分别针对每种选定疾病及其组合的生存率，考虑到与医疗保险服务使用文件 (NLTCS-M) 相关的国家长期护理调查中老年人样本中疾病之间可能存在的协同/拮抗作用，以及与 Medicare 服务使用文件关联的监测流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 以及 5% Medicare 服务使用文件 (SEER-M) 作为对照。拟议研究的特别重点是评估这些主要的流行病学特征，考虑疾病之间的依赖性以及某些疾病可能恢复对无病寿命的影响。将解决以下具体目标： 1) 评估美国男女老年人在四个主要疾病中的发病率、患病率、恢复率和生存率（即疾病状态下的死亡率）的横断面年龄模式和时间趋势上面使用 NLTCS-M 和 SEER-M 指定的老年病症。 2) 开发具有危险率参数描述的多州队列发病率/患病率/生存模型版本。使用这些模型评估上面列出的各个健康特征的时间趋势。 3) 检查上面列出的成对疾病的发病风险之间的关系。扩展精心设计的多状态模型来描述共病的发展。将扩展模型应用于对具有最高关联性的疾病数据进行联合分析。 公共卫生相关性：这项研究的结果将有助于更好地了解美国老年人主要疾病之间的联系，并为预测 2020 年、2025 年和 2030 年美国老年人的健康/福祉/生存特征创造适当的背景。