New Methods of Studying Aging, Health and Longevity: Combining Longitudinal Data

研究衰老、健康和长寿的新方法：结合纵向数据

• 批准号: 7916647
• 负责人: ANATOLIY I YASHIN
• 金额: $ 38.94万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7916647
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Age; Aging; Algorithms; Behavioral; Categories; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Computer Simulation; Data; Data Analyses; Data Collection; Data Set; Dependence; Education; Elderly; Ensure; Evaluation; Event; Framingham Heart Study; Health; Health Status; Heart Diseases; Heterogeneity; Human; Incidence; Individual; Investigation; Joints; Longevity; Longitudinal Studies; Malignant Neoplasms; Measurement; Methods; Modeling; Normal Range; Onset of illness; Personal Satisfaction; Physiological; Population; Prevalence; Preventive Intervention; Procedures; Property; Public Health; Questionnaires; Recording of previous events; Records; Research; Resistance; Risk; Risk Factors; Role; Sample Size; Shapes; Simulate; Smoking; Statistical Data Interpretation; Statistical Methods; Stress; Structure; Surveys; System; Techniques; Testing; Time; age related; allostatic load; base; design; disorder risk; drinking; improved; indexing; longitudinal analysis; mortality; public health relevance; response; tool

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The broad, long-term objective of the project is to elaborate an approach for a comprehensive analysis of health-related changes in aging individuals by developing tools for integration of distinct types of longitudinal data and elaboration of techniques for incorporation of the biologically-motivated information on aging associated changes into the developed models. The key idea of this approach is to perform joint statistical analyses of data collected using different observational plans. The analyses will be based on comprehensive mathematical and computer models describing joint age related changes in physiological state and health/well-being/survival status. To elaborate such models and methods the following specific aims will be addressed. 1) Elaborate advanced models of health, mortality and aging capable of describing individual physiological histories and their effects on risk of disease and death. Incorporate in these models the ability to describe the range of "normal" values of physiological indices specific for a given age. Generalize these models extending them to investigate the problem of dependent competing risks and apply them to data on physiological and health/well-being changes. 2) Elaborate methods and respective mathematical and computer models for investigation of effects of hidden heterogeneity in the rate of decline in stress resistance on the shape of the risks of disease and death considered as functions of risk factors. 3) Incorporate finite-state continuous-time component describing major changes in individual's health/well- being status into the elaborated models. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed analysis is directly relevant to public health issues since it is specifically designed to develop models with increased accuracy of parameter estimates for improving quality of individualized and population-wide predictions of health/well-being/survival status of the elderly individuals as well as for evaluating the effect of possible health/well-being preventive interventions.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的广泛、长期目标是通过开发整合不同类型纵向数据的工具和详细阐述老龄化个体健康相关变化的技术，制定一种全面分析老龄化个体健康相关变化的方法。将有关衰老相关变化的生物学信息纳入所开发的模型中。这种方法的关键思想是对使用不同观测计划收集的数据进行联合统计分析。分析将基于描述与年龄相关的关节生理状态和健康/福祉/生存状态变化的综合数学和计算机模型。为了详细阐述这些模型和方法，将解决以下具体目标。 1) 详细阐述健康、死亡率和衰老的先进模型，能够描述个体生理史及其对疾病和死亡风险的影响。在这些模型中纳入描述特定年龄特定生理指标“正常”值范围的能力。概括这些模型，将其扩展为调查相关竞争风险的问题，并将其应用于生理和健康/福祉变化的数据。 2）详细的方法和相应的数学和计算机模型，用于研究抗压能力下降率中隐藏的异质性对被视为风险因素函数的疾病和死亡风险形状的影响。 3）将描述个人健康/福祉状态主要变化的有限状态连续时间组件纳入精心设计的模型中。公共卫生相关性：所提出的分析与公共卫生问题直接相关，因为它是专门设计用于开发参数估计准确性更高的模型，以提高老年人健康/福祉/生存状态的个体化和全人群预测的质量个人以及评估可能的健康/福祉预防干预措施的效果。