The future of major geriatric disorders in the US elderly

美国老年人主要老年疾病的未来

• 批准号: 8129699
• 负责人: ANATOLIY I YASHIN
• 金额: $ 17.78万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8129699
• 关键词: Accounting; Acute; Address; Affect; Age; Aging; Alzheimer' s Disease; Area; Asthma; Behavioral; Birth; Cancer Survivor; Characteristics; Chronic; Cohort Analysis; Cohort Effect; Comorbidity; Coronary heart disease; Data; Data Analyses; Demographic Aging; Dependence; Development; Diabetes Mellitus; Disease; Education; Elderly; Epidemiology; Equilibrium; Future; Health; Heart Diseases; Incidence; Individual; Joints; Lead; Link; Long-Term Care; Longevity; Lung diseases; Malignant Neoplasms; Medical Surveillance; Medicare; Methods; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Obesity; Onset of illness; Parkinson Disease; Patients; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population; Prevalence; Race; Recovery; Regression Analysis; Research; Research Personnel; Risk; Risk Factors; Sampling; Series; Services; Simulate; Site; Smoking; Source; Specific qualifier value; Stratification; Stroke; Surveys; Survival Rate; Testing; Time; Work; burden of illness; cohort; disability-adjusted life years; disorder risk; hazard; improved; innovation; mortality; population health; prospective; sex; synergism; time use; trend

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The long term objective of the proposed research is to evaluate current epidemiological trends in major geriatric disorders including cancer, acute coronary heart disease (ACHD), asthma, Alzheimer?s (AD) disease. We will evaluate current and prospective trends in the incidence rates and patients? survival, separately for each of the selected diseases as well as for their combinations, taking into account possible synergism/antagonism between the diseases in samples of aging individuals from the National Long Term Care Survey linked with Medicare Service Use Files (NLTCS-M) and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) linked with Medicare Service Use Files along with 5% Medicare Service Use Files (SEER-M) as controls. Particular focus of the proposed research will be on evaluating these major epidemiological characteristics considering effects of dependence among diseases and possible recovery from certain diseases on disease free life span. The following specific aims will be addressed: 1) Evaluate cross-sectional age patterns and time trends in incidence, prevalence, recovery, and survival (i.e., mortality from the disease states) rates for elderly individuals of both sexes in the U.S. for four major geriatric conditions specified above using the NLTCS-M and SEER-M. 2) Develop versions of multistate cohort incidence/prevalence/survival models with parametric description of hazard rates. Using these models evaluate time trends for respective health characteristics listed above. 3) Examine the relationships between risks of disease onset in pairs of diseases listed above. Extend the elaborated multi-state models to describe development of co-morbidity. Apply extended models to the joint analyses of data on diseases showing highest connection. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The results of this study will contribute to better understanding connection among major diseases of the elderly in the U.S. population and create an appropriate background for predicting health/well-being/survival characteristics of the U.S. elderly in 2020, 2025 and 2030.

描述（申请人提供）：拟议研究的长期目标是评估包括癌症，急性冠心病（ACHD），哮喘，阿尔茨海默氏病（AD）病在内的主要老年疾病的当前流行病学趋势。我们将评估发病率和患者的当前和前瞻性趋势？生存，分别针对每种选定的疾病及其组合，同时考虑到来自国家长期护理调查的老年人样本中的疾病之间的协同/对抗，与Medicare服务使用文件（NLTCS-M）相关联以及监视的情况（NLTCS-M）以及与Medicare Servicane（Seeer）使用（Seeer）使用（Seeer）使用（Seeer（Seer）（Seer）（Seeer）（Seeer）使用5％（Seeer）（Seeer）（Seeer）（Seeer）（Seeer）。拟议的研究的特别重点将是评估这些主要的流行病学特征，考虑疾病之间的依赖性以及某些疾病对疾病无疾病生命跨度的康复。将解决以下具体目标：1）评估美国两性男女在美国的老年人的发病率，患病率，恢复和生存的时间趋势（即疾病状态的死亡率），用于上述四种主要的老年细胞，使用NLTCS-M和SEER-M和SEER-M。 2）开发具有危险率参数描述的多态队列发病率/患病率/生存模型的版本。使用这些模型评估上述各自的健康特征的时间趋势。 3）检查上面列出的疾病对疾病发作风险之间的关系。扩展详尽的多状态模型，以描述合并症的发展。将扩展模型应用于显示最高联系的疾病数据的关节分析。 公共卫生相关性：这项研究的结果将有助于更好地理解美国人口中老年人的主要疾病之间的联系，并为预测2020年，2025年和2030年美国老年人的健康/福祉/生存特征创造了适当的背景。