Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change

将模型与分子“日志”相结合，以更好地预测气候变化带来的灭绝风险

• 批准号: FT140101192
• 负责人: A/Prof Damien Fordham
• 金额: $ 53.15万
• 依托单位: The University of Adelaide
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: ARC Future Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2014-09-24 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FT140101192
• 关键词: Integrating; models; molecular; logbooks; better

Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.

目前的预测表明，人类驱动的气候变化可能会导致广泛的生物多样性丧失，然而，第四纪（260万年前至今）的气候变化与21世纪的预测相似，显然并未导致广泛的灭绝。该项目旨在利用与物种基因中印记的过去反应相关的模型来解决观测到的灭绝率与预测的灭绝率之间的差异是否来自于模型过度预测了气候变化导致的物种丧失。将利用这种遗传人口统计方法，通过确定灭绝的生物和环境决定因素，改进生物多样性对全球变化反应的预测。