Modeling population-environment dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon

厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区人口-环境动态建模

• 批准号: 7197716
• 负责人: WILLIAM KUANG-YAO PAN
• 金额: $ 8.2万
• 依托单位: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-04-19 至 2009-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7197716
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Adult; Affect; Agriculture; Area; Biodiversity; Birth; Child; Climate; Clinic; Code; Communities; Complex; Contraceptive Usage; Country; Data; Deforestation; Demography; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Development; Disease regression; Economics; Ecuadorian Amazon; Endogenous Factors; Environment; Equation; Exhibits; Extinction (Psychology); Family; Farming environment; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Food; Growth; Hand; Health; Household; Household and Family; Human; Image; Knowledge; Latin America; Least-Squares Analysis; Life; Location; Marketing; Medicine; Mining; Modeling; Natural Resources; Natural regeneration; Nomads; Petroleum; Planets; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Population Growth; Production; Range; Rate; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Rural; Secure; Series; Spatial Distribution; Specific qualifier value; Staging; Statistical Models; Surface; Sustainable Development; System; Testing; Time; Title; Woman; Work; base; experience; farmer; forest; frontier; innovation; interest; land cover; land use; migration; multilevel analysis; socioeconomics; theories

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The primary objective for this project is to examine some of the complex multidimensional relationships between population and environment dynamics in a tropical rainforest context that is undergoing substantial change due to the advance of the agricultural frontier. A better understanding of these relationships is vital for forest conservation and sustainable development, particularly in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA), an area of extraordinary biodiversity that has the 9th fastest deforestation rate in the world. While the proximate causes of deforestation vary, rural-rural migrant farmers have been identified as the primary direct agents. We propose to undertake research in the NEA based upon panel data collected in 1990 and 1999 from land plots, constructing a hierarchical framework of land plots and communities to test hypotheses using multilevel statistical models. Three interrelated Aims are proposed to examine demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, and ecological factors: (i) Determine factors associated with the spatial distribution of family households overtime; (ii) Determine factors associated with changing household fertility overtime; (iii) Decompose changes in land use and land cover over time into factors related to population growth, location / proximity to communities / markets, year of farm establishment, natural resources, and wealth. Spatially-explicit models will be developed based upon an integrated approach to population- environment theory that focuses on proximate and underlying causes of change, combining theories from demography, Chayanovian agricultural household models, Von Thunen economic land use models, and recent approaches utilizing institutional and contextual variables. Data are derived from geo-coded longitudinal household and community data collected between 1990 and 2000, augmented by a time series of remotely sensed images from 1972 to the present. The availability of longitudinal geo-coded data from households and communities along with recent improvements in multilevel model estimation provide a unique opportunity to assess the relevance of many causal factors. This project will help advance knowledge of population-environment relationships, moving us towards refining theories of change in the tropics, and proffering vital information to policy-makers interested in achieving forest conservation and sustainable development.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的主要目的是在热带雨林环境中检查人口与环境动态之间的某些复杂的多维关系，由于农业前沿的发展，该环境正在经历重大变化。更好地了解这些关系对于森林保护和可持续发展至关重要，尤其是在厄瓜多尔北部亚马逊（NEA），这是一个非凡的生物多样性领域，它是世界上最快的森林砍伐率。尽管森林砍伐的直接原因有所不同，但农村农民农民被确定为主要直接药物。我们建议根据1990年和1999年从土地图收集的面板数据进行NEA进行研究，并建立了土地图和社区的层次结构框架，以使用多级统计模型来检验假设。提出了三个相互关联的目标来检查人口，社会经济，制度和生态因素：（i）确定与家庭家庭的空间分布相关的因素； （ii）确定与家庭生育能力随时间变化相关的因素； （iii）将土地利用和土地覆盖的变化分解为与人口增长，社区 /市场的位置 /接近性有关的因素，农场建立年份，自然资源和财富。将基于人口环境理论的综合方法来开发空间解释的模型，该方法侧重于变化的近端和潜在原因，将人口统计学，Chayanovian农业家庭模型，冯·杜宁经济土地使用模型以及最新方法结合起来。数据源自1990年至2000年间收集的地理编码的纵向家庭和社区数据，从1972年到现在的遥感图像进行了时间序列。来自家庭和社区的纵向地理编码数据的可用性以及多层次模型估计的最新改进为评估许多因果因素的相关性提供了独特的机会。该项目将有助于促进人们对人口环境关系的了解，使我们朝着改进热带地区的变化理论，并向有兴趣实现森林保护和可持续发展的政策制定者提供重要信息。