Modeling population-environment dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon

厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区人口-环境动态建模

• 批准号: 7197716
• 负责人: WILLIAM KUANG-YAO PAN
• 金额: $ 8.2万
• 依托单位: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-04-19 至 2009-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7197716
• 关键词: Accounting; Address; Adult; Affect; Agriculture; Area; Biodiversity; Birth; Child; Climate; Clinic; Code; Communities; Complex; Contraceptive Usage; Country; Data; Deforestation; Demography; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Development; Disease regression; Economics; Ecuadorian Amazon; Endogenous Factors; Environment; Equation; Exhibits; Extinction (Psychology); Family; Farming environment; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Food; Growth; Hand; Health; Household; Household and Family; Human; Image; Knowledge; Latin America; Least-Squares Analysis; Life; Location; Marketing; Medicine; Mining; Modeling; Natural Resources; Natural regeneration; Nomads; Petroleum; Planets; Policies; Policy Maker; Population; Population Growth; Production; Range; Rate; Relative (related person); Research; Research Infrastructure; Rural; Secure; Series; Spatial Distribution; Specific qualifier value; Staging; Statistical Models; Surface; Sustainable Development; System; Testing; Time; Title; Woman; Work; base; experience; farmer; forest; frontier; innovation; interest; land cover; land use; migration; multilevel analysis; socioeconomics; theories

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The primary objective for this project is to examine some of the complex multidimensional relationships between population and environment dynamics in a tropical rainforest context that is undergoing substantial change due to the advance of the agricultural frontier. A better understanding of these relationships is vital for forest conservation and sustainable development, particularly in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA), an area of extraordinary biodiversity that has the 9th fastest deforestation rate in the world. While the proximate causes of deforestation vary, rural-rural migrant farmers have been identified as the primary direct agents. We propose to undertake research in the NEA based upon panel data collected in 1990 and 1999 from land plots, constructing a hierarchical framework of land plots and communities to test hypotheses using multilevel statistical models. Three interrelated Aims are proposed to examine demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, and ecological factors: (i) Determine factors associated with the spatial distribution of family households overtime; (ii) Determine factors associated with changing household fertility overtime; (iii) Decompose changes in land use and land cover over time into factors related to population growth, location / proximity to communities / markets, year of farm establishment, natural resources, and wealth. Spatially-explicit models will be developed based upon an integrated approach to population- environment theory that focuses on proximate and underlying causes of change, combining theories from demography, Chayanovian agricultural household models, Von Thunen economic land use models, and recent approaches utilizing institutional and contextual variables. Data are derived from geo-coded longitudinal household and community data collected between 1990 and 2000, augmented by a time series of remotely sensed images from 1972 to the present. The availability of longitudinal geo-coded data from households and communities along with recent improvements in multilevel model estimation provide a unique opportunity to assess the relevance of many causal factors. This project will help advance knowledge of population-environment relationships, moving us towards refining theories of change in the tropics, and proffering vital information to policy-makers interested in achieving forest conservation and sustainable development.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的主要目标是研究热带雨林环境中人口与环境动态之间的一些复杂的多维关系，由于农业前沿的进步，热带雨林环境正在发生重大变化。更好地了解这些关系对于森林保护和可持续发展至关重要，特别是在厄瓜多尔北部亚马逊地区 (NEA)，该地区生物多样性非凡，森林砍伐率位居世界第九。虽然森林砍伐的直接原因各不相同，但农村农民工被认为是主要的直接推动者。我们建议国家环境局根据 1990 年和 1999 年从地块收集的面板数据进行研究，构建地块和社区的分层框架，以使用多级统计模型检验假设。提出了三个相互关联的目标来审查人口、社会经济、制度和生态因素： (i) 确定与家庭住户加班空间分布相关的因素； (ii) 确定与家庭生育率变化相关的因素； (iii) 将土地利用和土地覆盖随时间的变化分解为与人口增长、位置/邻近社区/市场、农场建立年份、自然资源和财富相关的因素。空间明确模型将基于人口-环境理论的综合方法开发，该方法侧重于变化的直接和根本原因，结合人口学理论、Chayanovian农业家庭模型、Von Thunen经济土地利用模型以及最近利用制度和方法的方法。上下文变量。数据源自 1990 年至 2000 年期间收集的地理编码纵向家庭和社区数据，并通过 1972 年至今的遥感图像时间序列进行了增强。来自家庭和社区的纵向地理编码数据的可用性以及多级模型估计的最新改进为评估许多因果因素的相关性提供了独特的机会。该项目将有助于增进对人口与环境关系的了解，推动我们完善热带变化理论，并为有兴趣实现森林保护和可持续发展的政策制定者提供重要信息。