NI: Pyroclastic Density Current Partnership (PDCP): A global partnership to align numerical models and experimental techniques.

NI：火山碎屑密度流合作伙伴关系 (PDCP)：协调数值模型和实验技术的全球合作伙伴关系。

• 批准号: NE/W003767/2
• 负责人: Thomas Jones
• 金额: $ 4.66万
• 依托单位: Lancaster University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW003767%2F2
• 关键词: NI; Pyroclastic; Density; Current; Partnership

Ten percent of the world's population (i.e. 100s of millions) live within 100 km of an active volcano. Furthermore, this number is set to rise with the increasing global population. During all explosive volcanic eruptions pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can form - high temperature mixtures of rock and gas that rapidly flow away from the volcanic vent. These phenomena are the most lethal of all volcanic hazards and are responsible for more than a third of volcanic related fatalities. Furthermore, the accompanying ash clouds have the potential to cause global disruption and significant economic loss due to air-space closure. However, despite the lethal nature of PDCs we currently lack accurate models to forecast these flows and thus any hazard maps and mitigation strategies are inherently limited. To improve our numerical models we need to understand the complex internal flow dynamics within these 'opaque' and hazardous flows. Direct internal observation is not possible, but controlled laboratory experiments (PI's lab focus) offer a way to rigorously study these otherwise hidden phenomena. This seedcorn fund will partner a complimentary team of global PDC experts with the PI's experimental laboratory to align future experimental efforts with numerical PDC models. The members of this partnership have been strategically selected to ensure that, in combination with the PI's lab, a full research programme can be delivered - from unravelling the fundamental physics and incorporation into PDC flow models to direct real-world impact. Specifically members include unique, internationally renowned, numerical modelers who have all developed PDC models to forecast flow run-out and, in some cases, directly inform hazard maps for a range of volcanoes worldwide. Scientists from the government agencies and volcano observatory networks involved (e.g. the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology; the British Geological Survey) will formally communicate advances in volcanic hazard and risk to domestic and international governments, thereby providing a clear pathway to impact from this new partnership. Academics who have experience working on the field deposits and characteristics of PDC ash, including their adverse health effects, will incorporate the partnership outcomes into their work. Finally, the Met Office, home to the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC), are partners who provide advice, forecasts and guidance to the aviation authorities on the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. This seedcorn fund will support a series of workshops and laboratory exchange visits where members will: (1) outline the known and prioritise the missing physical parameters relevant for PDC models; (2) co-design pilot experiments to fill these knowledge gaps and (3) produce proof-of-concept data that will be used as a basis for future, longer term grant applications. The final outcome will be a long-lasting partnership that is equipped to tackle timely research questions surrounding deadly, pyroclastic flows using state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methods. Subsequent research led by this team will, for example, forecast the spatial extent of deadly pyroclastic flows and the subsequent atmospheric dispersal of PDC produced, volcanic ash. Ultimately this will minimise the human and economic cost of explosive volcanic eruptions around the world and is an outcome only achievable through complimentary, global partnership.

世界人口的百分之十（即数百万人）居住在距活火山 100 公里范围内。此外，随着全球人口的增加，这个数字还将增加。在所有爆炸性火山喷发期间，都会形成火山碎屑密度流（PDC）——岩石和气体的高温混合物，迅速从火山喷口流出。这些现象是所有火山灾害中最致命的，占火山相关死亡人数的三分之一以上。此外，伴随的火山灰云有可能因空域关闭而造成全球破坏和重大经济损失。然而，尽管 PDC 具有致命性，但我们目前缺乏准确的模型来预测这些流量，因此任何灾害地图和缓解策略本质上都是有限的。为了改进我们的数值模型，我们需要了解这些“不透明”和危险流中复杂的内部流动动力学。直接的内部观察是不可能的，但受控实验室实验（PI 的实验室重点）提供了一种严格研究这些原本隐藏的现象的方法。该种子基金将与 PI 的实验实验室合作，由全球 PDC 专家组成的免费团队将未来的实验工作与数值 PDC 模型结合起来。该合作伙伴关系的成员经过战略性挑选，以确保与 PI 实验室相结合，可以交付完整的研究计划 - 从阐明基础物理和纳入 PDC 流动模型到直接影响现实世界。具体来说，成员包括独特的、国际知名的数值建模师，他们都开发了 PDC 模型来预测流量耗尽，并在某些情况下直接为全球一系列火山的灾害地图提供信息。来自相关政府机构和火山观测网络（例如意大利国家地球物理和火山研究所；英国地质调查局）的科学家将正式向国内和国际政府通报火山灾害和风险的进展，从而提供明确的途径来应对火山灾害的影响新的伙伴关系。具有研究 PDC 火山灰现场沉积和特征（包括其对健康的不利影响）经验的学者将把合作成果纳入他们的工作中。最后，英国气象局是伦敦火山灰咨询中心 (VAAC) 的所在地，它是为航空当局提供有关大气中火山灰存在情况的建议、预测和指导的合作伙伴。该种子基金将支持一系列研讨会和实验室交流访问，成员将：（1）概述与 PDC 模型相关的已知物理参数并优先考虑缺失的物理参数； (2) 共同设计试点实验以填补这些知识空白；(3) 生成概念验证数据，作为未来长期资助申请的基础。最终的结果将是一种长期的合作伙伴关系，能够利用最先进的多学科方法及时解决有关致命的火山碎屑流的研究问题。例如，该团队领导的后续研究将预测致命的火山碎屑流的空间范围以及随后 PDC 产生的火山灰在大气中的扩散。最终，这将最大限度地减少世界各地火山喷发造成的人员和经济损失，并且只有通过免费的全球伙伴关系才能实现这一成果。

项目成果

Physical properties of pyroclastic density currents: relevance, challenges and future directions

火山碎屑密度流的物理特性：相关性、挑战和未来方向

• DOI: http://dx.10.3389/feart.2023.1218645
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Jones T