Attributable impacts from extreme weather events

极端天气事件的影响

• 批准号: NE/Z000203/1
• 负责人: Ed Hawkins
• 金额: $ 107.45万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FZ000203%2F1
• 关键词: Attributable; impacts; extreme; weather; events

Imagine a severe weather event occurs, causing devastating impacts to a particular region. One question that is repeatedly asked to climate scientists by politicians, disaster responders, recovery planners and journalists is about the role of climate change in causing or affecting the event. The direct cause of the devastation is the unusual weather but, in many cases, climate change will have made the event more likely, more severe, or potentially both. In those cases, the devastation may be partly or even mostly due to the change in climate. In some cases, the worst consequences may be due to the vulnerability of those living in the region, or a combination of many different factors which will reflect past and current decisions on a variety of levels.Understanding whether climate change has made the event more damaging is important. Wealthier nations have caused the world to warm, but poorer nations have experienced some of the most damaging consequences. International climate negotiations are discussing the issue of 'loss and damage' - whether and how those mainly responsible for climate change should compensate those who experience the worst consequences. This project will aid those discussions by providing answers to key questions about how the consequences of extreme weather events have already changed and how those consequences may change further in future, and by placing those events within their specific contexts of vulnerability.We will develop a new methodology to answer questions about the severity of extreme weather events - how have the consequences of a particular weather situation been made worse by climate change? If the same weather situation had occurred in the climate that we had 100years ago, would it have been less damaging? What about if the weather situation happens again in the future? These are well-defined questions, but we cannot easily answer them yet. As an example, we might expect that more rain would fall today in a severe storm than if the same storm had occurred 100 years ago, potentially making the consequences worse. But, how much more rain? And, beyond the direct meteorological consequences, what about the effects on river flows and people? We will also use these same concepts in reverse by applying them to extreme events that occurred several decades ago to examine how their consequences would be different today in a warmer world.This project will consider many different types of extreme weather event, including heavy rainfall, windstorms, heatwaves and droughts, and examine the consequences of those weather events for society, including damage to property and flooding. Importantly, we will identify the additional impacts of a particular weather event which are due to living in a warmer world, directly addressing the critical issue of losses and damages caused by climate change. We will also build narratives of plausible worst-case events to inform decision making on adapting to our warming world.

想象一下，发生恶劣的天气事件，对特定地区造成毁灭性影响。政客，灾难响应者，恢复计划者和记者反复要求气候科学家的一个问题是关于气候变化在引起或影响事件中的作用。造成破坏的直接原因是不寻常的天气，但是在许多情况下，气候变化将使事件更有可能，更严重或可能两者兼而有之。在这种情况下，破坏可能部分是由于气候变化。在某些情况下，最糟糕的后果可能是由于居住在该地区的人们的脆弱性，或者是许多不同因素的组合，这些因素将反映出各种级别的过去和当前决策。理解气候变化是否使该事件更具破坏性很重要。较富裕的国家使世界温暖，但贫穷的国家经历了一些最具破坏性的后果。国际气候谈判正在讨论“损失和损害”的问题 - 是否以及主要负责气候变化的人应弥补那些经历最严重后果的人。该项目将通过提供有关极端天气事件的后果如何已经改变以及这些后果如何进一步改变的关键问题，并将这些事件放在其特定的脆弱性背景下，我们将开发一个新的新事件，从而帮助这些讨论。回答有关极端天气事件严重性的问题的方法 - 气候变化如何使特定天气情况的后果变得更糟？如果在我们100年前的气候下发生了同样的天气情况，那会造成的破坏吗？如果将来再次发生天气情况怎么样？这些是定义明确的问题，但我们还不能轻易回答。例如，我们可能期望与100年前发生同一风暴发生的情况相比，今天的降雨会降低，这可能会使后果更糟。但是，还有多少雨？而且，除了直接的气象后果之外，对河流和人的影响又如何呢？我们还将通过将它们应用于几十年前发生的极端事件，以研究其后果在温暖的世界中如何有所不同。风暴，热浪和干旱，并检查这些天气事件对社会的后果，包括对财产和洪水的损害。重要的是，我们将确定特定天气事件的其他影响，该事件是由于生活在温暖的世界中，直接解决了气候变化造成的损失和损害的关键问题。我们还将构建关于合理的最坏事件的叙述，以告知对适应我们变暖世界的决策。