Extreme Climatic Events in the Oceans: Towards a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem impacts and resilience

海洋极端气候事件：对生态系统影响和复原力的机械理解

• 批准号: MR/X023214/1
• 负责人: Daniel Smale
• 金额: $ 74.69万
• 依托单位: Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FX023214%2F1
• 关键词: Extreme; Climatic; Events; Oceans; Towards

Never before in recorded human history have there been as many extreme climatic events as in the past decade, with anthropogenic climate change the major contributor to this trend. Droughts, floods, storms, and heatwaves are all linked through Earth's climate systems and can have significant ecological and socio-economic impacts on land and in the oceans. Despite growing appreciation of the importance of extreme climatic events in determining ecosystem structure the vast majority of knowledge stems from terrestrial research, even though marine ecosystems play a central role culturally, socially and economically in the lives of most people. Marine ecosystems provide a myriad of ecological goods and services, including nutrient cycling, food and other resources, biogenic coastal defence and climate regulation, all of which have substantial socioeconomic value. Coral reefs, seagrass meadows and kelp forests are particularly valuable in terms of capital generated from recreation, fishing activities, coastal defence and biodiversity, and contribute trillions of pounds to the global economy each year. In the UK alone, the estimated direct economic value of marine biodiversity exceeds £20 billion per year. In marine environmental research, much attention has been given to ocean acidification and, more recently, plastic pollution, yet there is a strong argument to suggest that extreme warming events (i.e. 'marine heatwaves' (MHWs)) pose an even greater risk to ecosystems. In the past decade alone, MHWs have devastated entire ecosystems and severely affected fisheries, aquaculture, food webs and carbon cycling. The frequency and duration of MHWs has increased significantly in recent decades and is predicted to increase throughout the 21st Century, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the unequivocal importance of MHWs in structuring ecosystems, our current understanding of their impacts remains poor. Knowledge of responses to MHWs stems from only a few events, such as the 1998 El Niño episode, the Mediterranean MHW of 2003 and the 2011 warming event off Western Australia. The 2011 MHW off Western Australia, for example, resulted in major shifts in benthic ecosystem structure in a tropical-temperate transition zone, by causing widespread mortality of cool-water habitat forming species. This project will address critical knowledge gaps in marine climate change ecology. It will synthesise existing information on ecological responses to MHWs and use a novel analytical approach to conduct a global-scale analysis of their impacts. The project will also carry out a range of experiments and surveys to examine how key organisms and processes are affected by MHWs with differing physical attributes. Finally, predictions of future patterns and impacts of MHWs will be made, based on physical and ecological modelling techniques. This project will significantly advance understanding of the impacts of extreme climatic events in the global ocean and will be of direct relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation, as society must safeguard valuable coastal marine ecosystems against increased climatic stress in the coming decades. Aside from significant academic impact, the research project will have considerable wider societal impact. The findings will be translated and fed into policy at both the national (e.g. MCCIP, CEFAS) and international (e.g. IPCC, ICES) level. Research on commercially-important species and habitats will be directly relevant for the aquaculture and fishing industries. Work on climate change-carbon cycle feedbacks will be of strategic significance to those working on Blue Carbon and climate change mitigation (e.g. IUCN, Blue Carbon Initiative). Throughout the project the importance of coastal marine ecosystems and threats posed by climate change stressors will be communicated widely to academics, industry, policy-makers and the wider public through a variety of channels.

在记录的人类历史上从来没有像过去十年一样多的极端气候事件，而人为气候变化是这种趋势的主要贡献者。干旱，地板，风暴和热浪都是通过地球气候系统连接的，可以对土地和海洋中的生态和社会经济产生重大的影响。尽管人们对极端气候事件在确定生态系统结构结构的重要性越来越多，但尽管海洋生态系统在文化，社会和经济上在大多数人的生活中都起着核心作用。海洋生态系统提供无数的生态商品和服务，包括营养自行车，食品和其他资源，生物沿海防御和气候调节，所有这些都具有实质性的社会经济价值。珊瑚礁，海草草地和海带森林在娱乐，捕鱼活动，沿海国防和生物多样性产生的资本方面特别有价值，并每年为全球经济贡献数万亿英镑。仅在英国，海洋生物多样性的估计直接经济价值每年超过200亿英镑。在海洋环境研究中，已经非常关注海洋酸化，并且最近是塑料污染，但有一个有力的论点表明，极度变暖的事件（即“海洋热浪”（MHWS））对生态系统构成更大的风险。仅在过去的十年中，MHWS就会破坏整个生态系统，并受到严重影响的渔业，水产养殖，食物网和碳循环。近几十年来，MHWS的频率和持续时间显着增加，并且由于人为气候变化，预计在整个21世纪。尽管MHW在构建生态系统中的重要性显然是重要的，但我们目前对其影响的理解仍然很差。了解只有几个事件的对MHWS植物的反应，例如1998年的厄尔尼诺情节，2003年的地中海MHW和西澳大利亚州的2011年变暖活动。例如，西澳大利亚州的2011年MHW通过导致凉水栖息地形成物种的广泛死亡率，导致热带温度过渡区的底栖生态系统结构发生了重大变化。该项目将解决海洋气候变化生态学中的关键知识差距。它将综合有关对MHW的生态反应的现有信息，并使用一种新颖的分析方法对其影响进行全球规模分析。该项目还将进行一系列实验和调查，以检查关键的生物和过程如何受到具有区分物理属性的MHW的影响。最后，将根据物理和生态建模技术对MHW的未来模式和影响进行预测。该项目将极大地促进极端气候事件在全球海洋中的影响，并将与气候变化的缓解和适应有关，因为社会必须在未来几十年中保护有价值的沿海海洋生态系统免受日志压力的增加。除了重大的学术影响外，研究项目还将考虑广泛的社会影响。这些发现将在国家（例如MCCIP，CEFA）和国际（例如IPCC，ICC）水平的国家（例如MCCIP，CEFAS）中转化并纳入政策。关于商业重要物种和栖息地的研究将与水产养殖和捕鱼行业直接相关。对于从事蓝色碳和缓解气候变化的人（例如，IUCN，蓝色碳计划），关于气候变化 - 碳循环反馈的工作将具有战略意义。通过该项目，通过各种渠道将广泛传达给学者，行业，政策制定者和更广泛的公众，沿海海洋生态系统和气候变化压力源的威胁的重要性将被广泛传达。