Developing statistical climate forecasts for the coming decade

制定未来十年的统计气候预测

• 批准号: NE/H011420/1
• 负责人: Ed Hawkins
• 金额: $ 7.47万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH011420%2F1
• 关键词: Developing; statistical; climate; forecasts; coming; Developing; statistical; climate; forecasts; coming

Predicting the climate on regional scales for the coming decade would be of considerable value to a wide range of decision makers. For example, information about rainfall would aid planning for water companies, and rail companies could decide whether new track needs to be laid to cope with rising temperatures. Two main factors influence the climate of the next decade; firstly, the continuing response of the climate system to greenhouse gas emissions and other external factors such as volcanoes and solar activity, and secondly, natural fluctuations in the ocean which can offset, or enhance, anthropogenic changes for a decade or two. Until recently, climate models were primarily used to predict only the external component. However, there is now a major international effort underway to add information about the present state of the ocean into climate models in order to consider both factors and hence improve predictions. This project proposes to examine statistical ways to predict the climate over the coming decade, and offers a way to test how good our complex climate models are, and determine whether the resources invested add value to the predictions. The project will focus on predicting sea surface temperatures, but future work could examine air temperature and rainfall predictions.

在未来十年中，预测区域尺度的气候对于广泛的决策者将具有相当大的价值。例如，有关降雨的信息将有助于为水公司计划，铁路公司可以决定是否需要铺设新轨道以应对温度的升高。两个主要因素影响了未来十年的气候。首先，气候系统对温室气体排放和其他外部因素的持续反应，例如火山和太阳活动，其次，海洋中的自然波动可以抵消或增强十年或两年的人为变化。直到最近，气候模型主要用于仅预测外部组件。但是，现在正在进行一项重大的国际努力，将有关海洋状态的信息添加到气候模型中，以考虑这两个因素，从而改善预测。该项目建议检查未来十年来预测气候的统计方法，并提供一种测试我们复杂气候模型的良好方式，并确定投资资源是否为预测增加价值。该项目将着重于预测海面温度，但是未来的工作可以检查空气温度和降雨预测。