Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change

现实世界气候变化的稳健空间预测

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N018591/1
负责人：
Ed Hawkins
金额：
$ 79.78万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN018591%2F1
关键词：
Robust Spatial Projections Real World

项目摘要

Climate change is one of the leading global challenges facing society and the planet. Predicting how the climate will change as human activities lead to emission of more greenhouse gases is a global scientific challenge for climate scientists.We use models of the climate to make predictions. Because of limitations in computing power, and because of gaps in our understanding of the climate, these models are not perfect. Predictions from the models are, therefore, also not perfect. We are faced by the huge challenge of extracting robust information from climate models about how real-world climate will change in the future under specified scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions. Such projections are central to leading climate change assessments, such as those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).This project will provide a step-change in the ability of climate scientists to produce robust projections of climate change and to quantify the uncertainties in projections. A new framework will be developed that combines information from models, observations and our basic understanding of climate with modern statistical techniques to produce projections. This new framework will be applied to three important climate regimes of Earth: tropical and subtropical temperature and precipitation change; middle latitude cyclones and anti-cyclones; and polar temperature and sea-ice changes.We will bring together leading UK scientists (many are IPCC authors) from the Universities of Exeter, Reading, Oxford and East Anglia, and the Met Office, to address this grand challenge in climate science. We aim to precipitate a cultural shift that unifies diverse approaches from techniques to understand climate process and statistical methods and consolidate the UKs position as a world-leading centre for climate projection science.

气候变化是社会和地球面临的主要全球挑战之一。预测随着人类活动导致更多温室气体排放，气候将如何变化是气候科学家面临的全球科学挑战。我们使用气候模型进行预测。由于计算能力的限制，以及我们对气候理解的差距，这些模型并不完美。因此，模型的预测也不完美。我们面临着巨大的挑战，即从气候模型中提取有关未来在不同温室气体排放的特定情景下现实世界气候将如何变化的可靠信息。此类预测对于领先的气候变化评估至关重要，例如政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 制定的评估。该项目将极大地提高气候科学家对气候变化做出可靠预测并量化气候变化的能力。预测的不确定性。将开发一个新的框架，将来自模型、观测和我们对气候的基本理解的信息与现代统计技术结合起来以产生预测。这个新框架将应用于地球的三个重要气候状况：热带和亚热带温度和降水变化；中纬度气旋和反气旋；我们将汇集来自埃克塞特大学、雷丁大学、牛津大学、东安格利亚大学以及英国气象局的英国顶尖科学家（其中许多是IPCC作者），共同应对气候科学领域的这一重大挑战。我们的目标是促进文化转变，统一从理解气候过程的技术到统计方法的多种方法，并巩固英国作为世界领先的气候预测科学中心的地位。