Exploring co-occurring UK HYDRo-meteorological extremes that exAcerbate risk (HYDRA)

探索加剧风险的同时发生的英国水文气象极端事件 (HYDRA)

• 批准号: NE/X009947/1
• 负责人: John Hillier
• 金额: $ 10.27万
• 依托单位: Loughborough University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX009947%2F1
• 关键词: Exploring; co; occurring; UK; HYDRo

In wintertime, infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) is threatened by multiple significant meteorological hazards, and it is increasingly apparent that these interact in a complex yet poorly studied multi-hazard system (e.g. Hillier et al, 2020). For example, the impacts of the dramatic February 2022 storm sequence (Dudley, Eunice, Franklin) demonstrated the pressing need for a more sophisticated view of GB's multi-hazard risk. The high windspeeds of Eunice left over 1 million homes without power and caused major transport disruption (trains and flights cancelled, roads blocked) in southern England, with snow causing further disruption in Scotland and northern England. Persistent heavy rain then resulted in the flooding of >400 homes during Franklin. In addition, there was ~£3 billion in direct insurance damage, road closures due to landslips (e.g. A57 'snake pass', Derbyshire, closed for 1 month) and other societal impacts in GB (e.g. school and port closures, trees felled). The impacts underlined the need to properly account for severe episodes that might (i) encompass a number of storms, (ii) span many days, and (iii) present a variety of hazards that manifest in different locations and affect various critical systems of UK plc (e.g. infrastructure).This contrasts to current practice where GB's hydro-meteorological hazards (related to wind and rain) are almost always considered separately (e.g. the UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment very much places single weather risks into siloes). There is some grouping for convenience (e.g. risks to transport from high and low temperatures), and the related issue of cascading failure is discussed, but there is no integrated logic applied to risk driven by co-occurring hazards. Likewise, insurers apply sophisticated, stochastic risk models (e.g. >10,000 simulated events), yet inland flooding and extreme wind are still modelled as separate and independent.A critical advance to better understanding flooding and extreme wind was identifying that they were systematically linked (Hillier et al., 2015). Spurred on by this initial observation, various UKRI funded projects (i.e. UKCGFI, a KTP with Lloyds Bank Group, STORMY-WEATHER, ROBUST) are building a scientific evidence base for a link between these two hazards. As part of this, in 2022 the Bank of England introduced an initial (cautious) requirement for insurers to account for this link in the stress tests to which they must submit. HYDRA will take this work to a new level, extending this important line of enquiry to the wider wintertime multi-hazard system (i.e. inland flooding, landslide, extreme wind, storm surge, extreme cold, snow). HYDRA is an exploratory project that aims to identify, quantify, and provisionally explain how the co-occurrence of six key GB hydro-meteorological wintertime extremes exacerbates risk. HYDRA will use historical observations (assimilated in ERA5, GLOFAS) and UKCP18 regional climate projections to better understand how linked hazards will evolve into the future. Rail and other infrastructure providers' sensitivity to identified co-occurrences will then be mapped in workshops book-ending the scientific work. HYDRA's science is ground-breaking due to the lack of systematic, highly multi-hazard risk evidence currently available. In addition to contributing to NERC science, it will define the engineering (EPSRC) challenge by identifying drivers for risk modelling of infrastructure networks, and will feed into policy (via DEFRA and the CCRA) and industry (e.g. reinsurance) practice.

在冬季，英国（GB）的基础设施受到多种重大气象危害的威胁，越来越明显的是，这些危害在复杂但较差的多危险多危险系统中相互作用（例如，Hillier等，2020）。例如，2022年2月的风暴序列（Dudley，Eunice，Franklin）的影响表明，人们对GB多危险风险的更为复杂的看法迫切需要。 Eunice的高风速使超过100万所房屋没有电，并在英格兰南部造成了严重的运输中断（火车和航班取消，道路被封锁），雪造成苏格兰和英格兰北部的进一步破坏。然后，持续的大雨随后导致富兰克林期间洪水量> 400栋房屋。此外，直接保险损失约有30亿英镑，由于降落的路（例如A57'Snake Pass'，Derbyshire，关闭1个月）以及GB（例如学校和港口关闭，树木感觉）的其他社会影响。 The impacts underlined the need to properly account for severe episodes that might (i) encompass a number of storms, (ii) span many days, and (iii) present a variety of hazards that manifest in different locations and affect various critical systems of UK plc (e.g. infrastructure).This contrasts to current practice where GB's hydro-meteorological hazards (related to wind and rain) are almost always considered separately (e.g. the UK's气候变化风险评估很大程度上将单一天气风险置于孤岛中）。为方便起见，有一些分组（例如，从高温和低温运输的风险），讨论了级联故障的相关问题，但是没有综合逻辑通过同时发生的危险来驱动风险驱动。同样，确保采用复杂的随机风险模型（例如> 10,000个模拟事件），但内陆洪水和极风仍然是单独且独立的模型。更好地了解洪水和极端风的关键进步是确定它们是系统地联系起来的（Hillier等人，2015年）。受到这一最初的观察的刺激，各种乌克里资助的项目（即，与劳埃德银行集团的KTP，风暴天气，强劲的KTP）正在为这两种危害之间的联系建立科学证据基础。作为此的一部分，在2022年，英格兰银行提出了一项初始（谨慎）的要求，以确保在他们必须提交的压力测试中说明这一链接。 Hydra将将这项工作提升到新的水平，将这一重要的询问线扩展到更广泛的冬季多危险系统（即内陆洪水，陆地滑坡，极端风，风暴潮，暴风雨，极度冷，雪）。 Hydra是一个探索性项目，旨在识别，量化和暂时解释六个关键的GB水电学冬季极端的同时出现如何消除风险。 Hydra将使用历史观察结果（ERA5，Glofas同化）和UKCP18区域气候项目，以更好地了解链接的危害将如何发展到未来。铁路和其他基础设施提供商对确定的共发生的敏感性将在研讨会上绘制在读书的科学工作中。由于目前缺乏系统的，高度多危险的风险证据，Hydra的科学正在开创性。除了为NERC科学做出贡献外，它还将通过确定基础设施网络风险建模的驱动因素来定义工程（EPSRC）挑战，并将纳入政策（通过Defra和CCRA）和行业（例如再保险）实践。