ROBUST - Enabling better management of UK multi-hazard risk

稳健 - 更好地管理英国多种灾害风险

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V018698/1
负责人：
John Hillier
金额：
$ 18.92万
依托单位：
Loughborough University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV018698%2F1
关键词：
ROBUST Enabling better management UK

项目摘要

The UK is severely impacted by multiple weather-related hazards, particularly flooding and extreme winds. The winter of 2015-16 illustrates the UK's vulnerability to such weather extremes, with estimated costs of £1.3-1.9 billion (EA, 2018). High-profile reports by government agencies now recognise that risk might be exacerbated when flooding and extreme wind co-occur, but at present most major UK sectors (e.g. insurance, critical infrastructure) consider most high-impact weather risks as independent phenomena. Progressing from studies of single storms and seasons, I was the first to demonstrate a systematic link in the UK between wintertime flooding and extreme winds (Hillier et al, 2015), even if floods and damaging winds typically occur in different storms (De Luca & Hillier, 2017). This relationship is not well understood, but it may reflect the way in which such storms interact with the jet stream (Hillier & Dixon, 2020). My recent work is based around estimating losses and communicates its findings using plots familiar to insurers (e.g. of probability vs loss), making implications more accessible than the outputs reported in standard scientific papers. Consequently, it is recognized as important, but another step is needed to alter financial practice; to quote a senior risk manager at Lloyd's of London, a person with in-depth knowledge of these hazards - "It's good work, but how do I use it?". ROBUST is a response to that question. Specifically, the Prudential Regulation Authority, a division of the Bank of England (BoE) that regulates UK financial services asked me exactly the same thing. Their concern is to ensure that the UK's financial service companies, such as insurers, are resilient to the impacts of natural disasters. In this role they need to decide whether or not to require insurers to hold more capital to pay the bill for larger than expected natural disasters. However, holding more capital costs insurers money, so the BoE do not want to impose this requirement unnecessarily. In response to this dilemma, I co-designed ROBUST with the Bank of England and Sayers LLP (a leading flood risk modeller) to understand the financial implications of this observed tendency for severe inland flooding and extreme wind damage to co-occur in wet and windy years. ROBUST's main aim is to enable the Bank to fulfil its need to deliver a statement on what regulation might be required. Our pilot study (Hillier, BoE, Aon, CatInsight) demonstrated that simply applying the scientifically observed correlation within statistical models of financial loss cannot reach a definitive answer - the assumptions needed create large uncertainties. Joint physical modelling of flooding and wind extremes is needed, driven by a climate model (e.g. the Met Office's UKCP18). However, this is not a simple endeavour, and then the BoE needs to extend it from hazard (e.g. flooding), to loss, and then to the implications of that loss. Perhaps this is why, despite being spectacularly illustrated by storms like Desmond in 2015, the association between flooding and extreme winds in the UK has lingered for a decade at the top of the insurance 'to do' list without being done. To solve the BoE's problem, ROBUST adopts a pragmatic, knowledge exchange approach, partnering with organisations including the BoE, Sayers LLP and the Met Office. It develops outputs from several existing UKRI funded projects on flooding (AquaCAT - Sayers) and wind damage (WISC - Met Office) to create a step-change in how we understand their co-occurrence, and then explicitly progresses to metrics suitable for decisions about the UK's financial stability. My skills and experience are ideal for this task. Moreover, to create wider impacts, I will promote cross-sector learning by taking the lessons about better management of UK multi-hazard risk gained with insurers and engaging with utility companies and transport infrastructure providers.

英国受到多种与天气有关的危害的严重影响，尤其是洪水和极端风。 2015 - 16年度冬季说明了英国对这种极端天气的脆弱性，估计费用为1.3-19亿英镑（EA，2018年）。政府机构的备受瞩目的报告现在认识到，洪水和极端风能共同发生时风险可能会加剧，但目前，大多数英国主要部门（例如，保险，关键基础设施）将大多数高影响力风险视为独立现象。从对单场风暴和季节的研究中，我是第一个在冬季洪水和极端风中在英国展示系统联系的人（Hillier等，2015），即使地板和损坏的风通常发生在不同的风暴中（De Luca＆Hillier，2017年）。这种关系并不理解，但它可能反映了这种风暴与喷气流相互作用的方式（Hillier＆Dixon，2020）。我最近的工作是基于估计损失的基础，并使用熟悉的图（例如概率与损失）熟悉的地块传达其发现，从而使含义比标准科学论文中报道的输出更容易获得。因此，它被认为是重要的，但是需要另一个步骤来改变财务实践。引用伦敦劳埃德（Lloyd's）的高级风险经理，一个对这些危害有深入了解的人 - “这是一个好工作，但是我该如何使用呢？”强大的是对这个问题的回答。具体而言，监管英国金融服务部门的英格兰银行（BOE）的一个审慎监管机构问我完全同样的事情。他们关注的是确保英国的金融服务公司（例如确保）对自然灾害的影响有弹性。在这个角色中，他们需要决定是否要求确保持有更多的资本来支付比预期的自然灾害的账单。但是，持有更多的资本成本可确保资金，因此BOE不想不必要施加这一要求。为了应对这一难题，我与英格兰银行和赛义尔银行（Sayers LLP）（领先的洪水风险建模者）共同设计了强大的努力，以了解这种观察到的严重内陆洪水趋势的财务影响，并在潮湿和大风年中对同事的极端风损害对同事的极端风损害。强大的主要目的是使银行能够满足其对可能需要的法规的声明的需求。我们的试点研究（Hillier，Boe，Aon，Catinsight）表明，仅将科学观察到的相关性应用于财务损失的统计模型中，无法达到确定的答案 - 所需的假设会造成大型不确定性。由于气候模型的驱动（例如，大都会办公室的UKCP18），需要对洪水和极端风的联合物理建模。但是，这并不是一项简单的努力，然后BOE需要将其从危害（例如洪水），损失，然后延伸到损失的影响。也许这就是为什么尽管2015年戴斯蒙德（Desmond）这样的风暴对风暴进行了壮观的说明，但英国的洪水与极端风之间的关联在保险“待办事项”清单的顶部已经徘徊了十年。为了解决BOE的问题，强有力地采用了一种务实的知识交流方法，与BOE，Sayers LLP和MET办公室在内的组织合作。它从现有的乌克里（Ukri）洪水（Aquacat -Sayers）和风损伤（WISC-大都会办公室）的几个现有资助的项目开发出产量，以对我们如何理解它们的同时发生，然后明确地发展到适合于对英国财务稳定性的决策的指标。我的技能和经验是这项任务的理想选择。此外，为了产生更广泛的影响，我将通过获取有关与保险公司获得的更好管理多危险风险的经验教训，并与公用事业公司和运输基础设施提供商互动。