Improving MOdelling approaches to assess climate change-related THresholds and Ecological Range SHIfts in the Earth's Peatland ecosystems (MOTHERSHIP)

改进建模方法以评估地球泥炭地生态系统中与气候变化相关的阈值和生态范围变化（MOTHERSHIP）

• 批准号: NE/V018418/1
• 负责人: Garry Hayman
• 金额: $ 131.82万
• 依托单位: UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV018418%2F1
• 关键词: Improving; MOdelling; approaches; assess; climate

Peatlands form in wet environments where the organic matter built up by plants every year is not fully degraded. This means that, over time, partly degraded organic matter accumulates as peat, locking away huge quantities of carbon. We call such areas 'carbon sinks' and through this process, peatlands moderate the Earth's climate. When carefully managed they are our most carbon-rich ecosystems on land. Unfortunately, due to poor management, they are currently our most intensive source of carbon dioxide emissions from land, amplifying climate change in the same way as burning fossil fuels.The primary means by which peatlands are damaged is drainage, which lowers the water table. This changes how peatlands function, and as a consequence, such areas switch from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Around the world, 10-15% of all peatlands have been impacted by drainage and by use as cropland, production forests, and grazing. In the UK and more widely across Europe, so many peatlands have been altered that >50% of former peat accumulating habitat has been lost. As part of the effort to reduce global emissions, governments across Europe have invested significant sums in peatland restoration efforts, however it is unclear whether these efforts will be successful in the light of climate change, particularly increasing global temperature and changes to rainfall patterns. In this project, we will investigate whether degraded peatlands differ from natural peatlands in the way they react to climate change. Using sites across the European climate gradient, we will examine what effect variations in weather over several years have on GHG emissions from natural and disturbed peatlands. Using a regional-to-global scale model to simulate future weather to 2100, we will use our new information to enable better policy decisions to sustainably manage peatlands. This will be achieved in the following way:First, we will determine how differences in climate and management affect how peatlands function, using measurements from 44 micrometeorological stations and thousands of satellite (Earth Observation) data points across Europe. The satellite data will enable us to understand processes on a far larger landscape scale than the field data. We will also use satellite data to determine the physical up-and-down movement of 15 exemplar peatlands relative to climatic drivers, as this is an important mechanism by which peatland water tables self-regulate. We will then model fine-scale water flows across these 15 landscapes to estimate how climate, vegetation and water flows interact in peatlands.Second, using the above observations and models we will develop and test a peatland version of a regional- to global-scale model: the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES can model what happens to our environment under climatic change across the globe, but currently is unable to deal with peatlands.Finally, with the new JULES-PEAT model, we will be able to predict how UK and European peatlands will behave under climate change and current land use, and what strategies should be taken to minimise future carbon losses. We will develop scenarios of such strategies with our project partners and run a series of international workshops to compare the new JULES-PEAT model against other global climate models, in order to advance better global forecasting of climate change effects on peatlands as a whole and to find the best possible future management solutions for peat soils to mitigate climate change. Working with partners with UK/EU policy links, this will provide solid data for future peatland policies and management on the ground.

泥炭地形成在潮湿的环境中，每年植物建立的有机物没有完全退化。这意味着，随着时间的流逝，部分降解的有机物会积聚为泥炭，锁定大量碳。我们将这样的区域称为“碳汇”，通过此过程，泥炭地调节地球的气候。经过精心管理时，它们是我们在陆地上最丰富的碳富含生态系统。不幸的是，由于管理不善，它们目前是我们最密集的二氧化碳排放量来源，与燃烧化石燃料相同的方式扩大了气候变化。泥炭地损坏的主要手段是排水，这降低了水桌。这改变了泥炭地的功能，因此，此类区域从碳汇到碳源。在世界范围内，所有泥炭地中有10-15％受到排水和用作农田，生产森林和放牧的影响。在英国，整个欧洲更广泛的境地，许多泥炭地已经改变，以至于50％以前的泥炭积累了栖息地。作为减少全球排放的努力的一部分，欧洲各国政府在泥炭地恢复工作中投入了大量资金，但是尚不清楚这些努力是否会鉴于气候变化，尤其是增加全球温度和降雨模式的变化。在这个项目中，我们将调查泥炭地退化的泥炭地与自然泥炭地的反应对气候变化的反应。使用欧洲气候梯度的地点，我们将研究几年来天气对天然和干扰泥炭地的温室气体排放的影响。使用区域到全球量表模型将未来的天气模拟至2100，我们将使用新信息来实现更好的政策决策以可持续地管理泥炭地。这将通过以下方式实现：首先，我们将使用来自欧洲的44个微气候站和数千个卫星（地球观测）数据点的测量值来确定气候和管理的差异如何影响泥炭地的功能。卫星数据将使我们能够以比现场数据更大的景观量表了解过程。我们还将使用卫星数据来确定相对于气候驱动因素的15个典范泥炭地的物理上下移动，因为这是泥炭地水表自我调节的重要机制。然后，我们将在这15个景观中建模细尺度的水流，以估算气候，植被和水流如何在泥炭地中相互作用。第二，使用上述观测值和模型，我们将开发和测试区域至全球规模的模型的泥炭地版：联合英国英国土地环境模拟器（Jules）。朱尔斯（Jules）可以在全球气候变化下对环境发生的变化进行建模，但目前无法处理泥炭地。在本文中，使用新的朱尔斯 - 帕特（Jules-Peat）模型，我们将能够预测英国和欧洲泥炭地在气候变化和当前土地使用下如何行事，以及应采取哪些策略来最大程度地减少未来的碳损失。我们将与我们的项目合作伙伴开发此类策略的场景，并开展一系列国际研讨会，以将新的Jules-Peat模型与其他全球气候模型进行比较，以便促进对整个泥炭地的气候变化影响的更好的全球预测，并为整个泥炭地效应效果，并找到最佳的泥炭土壤解决方案，以减轻气候变化。与英国/欧盟政策链接的合作伙伴合作，这将为实地的未来泥炭地政策和管理提供可靠的数据。