Improving MOdelling approaches to assess climate change-related THresholds and Ecological Range SHIfts in the Earth's Peatland ecosystems (MOTHERSHIP)

改进建模方法以评估地球泥炭地生态系统中与气候变化相关的阈值和生态范围变化（MOTHERSHIP）

• 批准号: NE/V01840X/1
• 负责人: David Large
• 金额: $ 48.54万
• 依托单位: University of Nottingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV01840X%2F1
• 关键词: Improving; MOdelling; approaches; assess; climate

Peatlands form in wet environments where the organic matter built up by plants every year is not fully degraded. This means that, over time, partly degraded organic matter accumulates as peat locking away huge quantities of carbon. We call such areas 'carbon sinks' and through this process, peatlands moderate the Earth's climate. When carefully managed they are our most carbon-rich ecosystems on land. Unfortunately, due to poor management, they are currently our most intensive source of carbon dioxide emissions from land, amplifying climate change in the same way as burning fossil fuels. The primary means by which peatlands are damaged is drainage, which lowers the water table. This changes how peatlands function, and as a consequence, such areas switch from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Around the world, 10-15% of all peatlands have been impacted by drainage, and use as cropland, production forests, and grazing. In the UK and more widely across Europe, so many peatlands have been altered that >50% of former peat accumulating habitat has been lost. As part of the effort to reduce global emissions, governments across Europe have invested significant sums in peatland restoration efforts, however it is unclear whether these efforts will be successful in the light of climate change, particularly increasing global temperature and changes to rainfall patterns. In this project, we will investigate whether degraded peatlands differ from natural peatlands in the way they react to climate change. Using sites across the European climate gradient, we will examine what effect variations in weather over several years have on GHG emissions from natural and disturbed peatlands. Using a regional-to-global scale model to simulate future weather to 2100, we will use our new information to enable better policy decisions to sustainably manage peatlands. This will be achieved in the following way: First, we will determine how differences in climate and management affect how peatlands function, using measurements from 44 micrometeorological stations and thousands of satellite (Earth Observation) data points across Europe. The satellite data will enable us to understand processes on a far larger landscape scale than the field data. We will also use satellite data to determine the physical up-and-down movement of 15 exemplar peatlands relative to climatic drivers, as this is an important mechanism by which peatland water tables self-regulate. We will then model fine-scale water flows across these 15 landscapes to estimate how climate, vegetation and water flows interact in peatlands. Second, using the above observations and models we will develop and test a peatland version of a regional- to global-scale model: the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES can model what happens to our environment under climatic change across the globe, but currently is unable to deal with peatlands. Finally, with the new JULES-PEAT model, we will be able to predict how UK and European peatlands will behave under climate change and current land use, and what strategies should be taken to minimise future carbon losses. We will develop scenarios of such strategies with our project partners and run a series of international workshops to compare the new JULES-PEAT model against other global climate models, in order to advance better global forecasting of climate change effects on peatlands as a whole and to find the best possible future management solutions for peat soils to mitigate climate change. Working with partners with UK/EU policy links, this will provide solid data for future peatland policies and management on the ground.

泥炭地形成于潮湿的环境中，植物每年积累的有机物并未完全降解。这意味着，随着时间的推移，部分降解的有机物会随着泥炭的积累而积累，从而锁住大量的碳。我们将这些区域称为“碳汇”，通过这个过程，泥炭地可以调节地球的气候。如果精心管理，它们是陆地上碳最丰富的生态系统。不幸的是，由于管理不善，它们目前是我们陆地二氧化碳排放最密集的来源，与燃烧化石燃料一样加剧了气候变化。泥炭地遭到破坏的主要方式是排水，从而降低地下水位。这改变了泥炭地的功能，因此这些地区从碳汇转变为碳源。在世界各地，10-15% 的泥炭地受到排水以及用作农田、生产林和牧场的影响。在英国和更广泛的欧洲地区，许多泥炭地已经被改变，超过 50% 的以前泥炭堆积的栖息地已经消失。作为减少全球排放努力的一部分，欧洲各国政府在泥炭地恢复工作上投入了大量资金，但鉴于气候变化，特别是全球气温升高和降雨模式的变化，尚不清楚这些努力是否会取得成功。在这个项目中，我们将调查退化泥炭地对气候变化的反应方式是否与天然泥炭地不同。我们将利用整个欧洲气候梯度的站点，研究几年来天气变化对天然泥炭地和受干扰泥炭地的温室气体排放的影响。使用区域到全球规模的模型来模拟 2100 年的未来天气，我们将利用新信息做出更好的政策决策，以可持续地管理泥炭地。这将通过以下方式实现：首先，我们将利用欧洲 44 个微气象站和数千个卫星（地球观测）数据点的测量结果，确定气候和管理的差异如何影响泥炭地的功能。卫星数据将使我们能够了解比现场数据更大的景观尺度上的过程。我们还将使用卫星数据来确定 15 个示范泥炭地相对于气候驱动因素的物理上下运动，因为这是泥炭地地下水位自我调节的重要机制。然后，我们将对这 15 个景观的精细水流进行建模，以估计气候、植被和水流在泥炭地中如何相互作用。其次，利用上述观察结果和模型，我们将开发和测试区域到全球规模模型的泥炭地版本：英国联合土地环境模拟器（JULES）。 JULES 可以模拟全球气候变化下我们的环境会发生什么，但目前无法处理泥炭地。最后，借助新的 JULES-PEAT 模型，我们将能够预测英国和欧洲泥炭地在气候变化和当前土地利用情况下的表现，以及应采取哪些策略来最大限度地减少未来的碳损失。我们将与项目合作伙伴一起开发此类策略的情景，并举办一系列国际研讨会，将新的 JULES-PEAT 模型与其他全球气候模型进行比较，以促进更好地预测气候变化对整个泥炭地的影响，并寻找未来最好的泥炭土管理解决方案，以缓解气候变化。与具有英国/欧盟政策联系的合作伙伴合作，这将为未来的泥炭地政策和实地管理提供可靠的数据。