Climate feedbacks from wetlands and permafrost thaw in a warming world (CLIFFTOP)

变暖的世界中湿地和永久冻土融化的气候反馈（CLIFFTOP）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P015050/1
负责人：
Garry Hayman
金额：
$ 17万
依托单位：
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP015050%2F1
关键词：
Climate feedbacks wetlands permafrost thaw

项目摘要

Carbon dioxide and methane are the most important long-lived greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. These two gases, which are the major components of the global carbon cycle, are added to and removed from the atmosphere in a wide range of ways, from both natural and human activities. Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane and methane emissions from wetlands are expected to increase in a warming world. Further, in high northern latitudes, large amounts of carbon are stored in frozen soils or permafrost. The polar regions are warming faster than other parts of the Earth. As these soils warm causing the permafrost to thaw, the stored carbon can be converted by microbial activity over time and released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane, leading to further warming and hence a positive feedback. Combined with landscape changes, this may lead to the formation of new wetlands resulting in further emissions of methane.Wetlands and permafrost thaw are therefore important biogeochemical processes that need to be included in models of the Earth's climate. Through their inclusion, climate, or now Earth System, models will then account for the feedbacks that wetlands and permafrost thaw produce on the physical climate system (e.g., on future temperature changes). Following the international climate agreement in 2015 to limit future temperature rises to less than 1.5-2 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels, there is an urgent need to quantify this contribution of wetlands and permafrost thaw as this will constrain the accumulated emissions of greenhouse gases that can be released from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion if global temperatures are to be stabilised.In this study, we will use the UK community state-of-the-art land surface model, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to model wetlands and permafrost thaw. We plan targeted development of the land-surface model to enhance its capability for considering wetlands, permafrost thaw, methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a more consistent and integrated manner. For this work, we will use this improved version of JULES with a simplified but robust climate emulator, IMOGEN. IMOGEN replicates the behaviour of a wide range of more complex and resource intensive climate and Earth System models that contributed to the latest climate change assessment of the IPCC.We will undertake model runs with the JULES-IMOGEN modelling system (a) to assess the impact of Arctic carbon releases that are not included in many climate models, (b) to quantify the corresponding climate feedbacks and the impact of these additional emissions on allowed human emissions for 1.5 or 2 degree C climate stabilisations. The research proposed will provide important evidence to support the commitments made in the Paris Agreement to 'strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change.... and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels'.The outputs of the work will include:* papers for publication in the scientific literature, which will be included in the special IPCC assessment of the IPCC* wetland methane emission datasets for current day and future conditions that will be of value for the atmospheric modelling communityThe project links to and will complement ongoing work at the Met Office, our project partner, for the UK government.

二氧化碳和甲烷是最重要的长寿命温室气体，导致全球变暖和气候变化。这两种气体是全球碳循环的主要组成部分，以多种方式从自然活动和人类活动中添加到大气中。湿地是甲烷的最大自然来源，预计在温暖世界中，湿地的甲烷排放量将增加。此外，在北部高纬度地区，大量碳储存在冷冻土壤或多年冻土中。极地区域的变暖比地球其他地方更快。由于这些土壤温暖导致永久冻土融化，随着时间的推移，储存的碳可以通过微生物活性转化，并以二氧化碳或甲烷的形式释放到大气中，从而进一步变暖，从而产生积极的反馈。因此，与景观变化相结合，这可能导致新湿地的形成，导致甲烷进一步排放。因此，威特兰和永久冻结是重要的生物地球化学过程，需要包括在地球气候模型中。通过它们的包含，气候或现在的地球系统，模型将考虑湿地和多年冻结融化在物理气候系统上产生的反馈（例如，在未来的温度变化上）。根据2015年的国际气候协议限制未来温度的上升至1.5-2摄氏度高于工业前的水平，迫切需要量化湿地和永久冻融融化的这种贡献，因为这将限制温室气体的累积排放如果要稳定全球温度，可以从人类活动（例如化石燃料燃烧）中释放出来。在这项研究中，我们将使用英国社区最先进的土地表面模型，即英国联合土地环境模拟器（Jules）建模湿地和永久冻结融化。我们计划针对地表模型的有针对性的开发，以增强其考虑湿地，多年冻结，甲烷和二氧化碳排放的能力。对于这项工作，我们将使用简化但强大的气候模拟器Imogen使用这种改进的Jules版本。 Imogen复制了各种更复杂和资源密集的气候和地球系统模型的行为，这些模型有助于IPCC的最新气候变化评估。我们将与Jules-Imogen建模系统（a）进行模型运行，以评估影响的影响在许多气候模型中未包含的北极碳释放，（b），以量化相应的气候反馈以及这些额外排放对1.5或2度C气候稳定的允许人体排放的影响。拟议的研究将提供重要证据，以支持巴黎协定中的承诺，以加强对气候变化威胁的全球反应。... '。作品的输出将包括：*科学文献中发表的论文，这些论文将包括在IPCC的特殊IPCC评估中*湿地甲烷排放数据集，以实现当前和将来的条件，这对于大气有价值对社区进行建模，该项目链接到并将补充我们的项目合作伙伴的持续工作。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（6）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aab89c
发表时间：
2018-05-01
期刊：
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Collins, William J.;Webber, Christopher P.;Powell, Tom
通讯作者：
Powell, Tom

Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks

DOI：
10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
发表时间：
2018-08-01
期刊：
NATURE GEOSCIENCE
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Comyn-Platt, Edward;Hayman, Garry;Sitch, Stephen
通讯作者：
Sitch, Stephen

Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab2726
发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Gedney, N.;Huntingford, C.;Wiltshire, A.
通讯作者：
Wiltshire, A.

Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

DOI：
10.5194/esd-2020-24
发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
Earth System Dynamics
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
G. Hayman;E. Comyn‐Platt;C. Huntingford;A. Harper;Tom Powell;P. Cox;William J. Collins;C. Webber;J. Lowe;S. Sitch;J. House;J. Doelman;D. V. van Vuuren;S. Chadburn;E. Burke;N. Gedney
通讯作者：
G. Hayman;E. Comyn‐Platt;C. Huntingford;A. Harper;Tom Powell;P. Cox;William J. Collins;C. Webber;J. Lowe;S. Sitch;J. House;J. Doelman;D. V. van Vuuren;S. Chadburn;E. Burke;N. Gedney

Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0 °C

灵活的参数稀疏全局温度时间曲线，稳定在 1.5 和 2.0 °C