Addressing the Grand Challenge of regional sea level change prediction

应对区域海平面变化预测的巨大挑战

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R000727/1
负责人：
Jonathan Gregory
金额：
$ 75.7万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR000727%2F1
关键词：
Addressing Grand Challenge regional sea

项目摘要

Sea level change is one of the most widely known and potentially serious consequences of climate change due to emissions of greenhouse gases. It concerns both the public and policymakers, because of its adverse impact on the populations and ecosystems of coastal and low-lying areas. This impact is expected to increase for centuries to come.Sea water expands as it warms in a process known as thermal expansion. Thermal expansion due to changes in the amount of heat entering the ocean is the largest contributor to sea level rise projected for the 21st century. Regional sea level is also affected by changes in precipitation, evaporation and winds over the ocean because, along with heating, these affect ocean density and currents. The contraction of glaciers and ice sheets expected in a warming climate is another important contributor to projected global and regional sea level change, but it is a different scientific subject which we do not propose to address directly here.Computer climate models disagree in their projections of sea level change. This means that we are not able to make precise predictions of sea level rise on average over the globe. Moreover, while all models predict that some regions will experience a larger rise than average and others a smaller rise than average, they do not agree on these geographical patterns. A large part of the uncertainty is related to the different behaviour of the various models in response to the changing effects of heat, water and winds. They behave differently because different assumptions have been made in their formulations, reflecting a lack of precise knowledge.This project aims to study these uncertainties, by detailed analysis, using new techniques, of how the ocean models respond to particular inputs, and by comparison with theory and observations. Our aim is thus to reduce the range of the projections. Any such reduction is potentially of large societal and economic benefit; for example, planning decisions need to be made concerning coastal infrastructure that may last for decades and cost billions of pounds.

海平面变化是温室气体排放导致的气候变化最广为人知且可能严重的后果之一。它引起公众和政策制定者的关注，因为它对沿海和低洼地区的人口和生态系统产生不利影响。这种影响预计将在未来几个世纪内增加。海水随着温度升高而膨胀，这一过程称为热膨胀。由于进入海洋的热量变化而导致的热膨胀是预计 21 世纪海平面上升的最大因素。区域海平面还受到海洋降水、蒸发和风的变化的影响，因为这些变化连同加热一起影响海洋密度和洋流。气候变暖导致的冰川和冰盖收缩是预测全球和区域海平面变化的另一个重要因素，但这是一个不同的科学主题，我们不建议在这里直接讨论。计算机气候模型在预测中存在分歧。海平面变化。这意味着我们无法准确预测全球平均海平面上升情况。此外，虽然所有模型都预测某些地区的增幅将高于平均水平，而另一些地区的增幅将低于平均水平，但它们对这些地理模式的看法并不一致。很大一部分不确定性与各种模型响应热、水和风的变化影响的不同行为有关。它们的行为有所不同，因为在其公式中做出了不同的假设，反映出缺乏精确的知识。该项目旨在通过详细分析、使用新技术来研究这些不确定性，海洋模型如何响应特定的输入，并通过与理论和观察。因此，我们的目标是缩小预测的范围。任何此类减少都可能产生巨大的社会和经济效益；例如，需要就可能持续数十年、耗资数十亿英镑的沿海基础设施做出规划决策。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Climate Model Uncertainty and Trend Detection in Regional Sea Level Projections: A Review

DOI：
10.1007/s10712-019-09559-3
发表时间：
2019-11-01
期刊：
SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Carson, Mark;Lyu, Kewei;Zanna, Laure
通讯作者：
Zanna, Laure

A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake

DOI：
10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z
发表时间：
2023-12
期刊：
Climate Dynamics
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
J. Gregory;J. Bloch‐Johnson;M. Couldrey;E. Exarchou;S. Griffies;T. Kuhlbrodt;E. Newsom;O. Saenko;Tatsuo Suzuki;Quran Wu;Shogo L. Urakawa;L. Zanna
通讯作者：
J. Gregory;J. Bloch‐Johnson;M. Couldrey;E. Exarchou;S. Griffies;T. Kuhlbrodt;E. Newsom;O. Saenko;Tatsuo Suzuki;Quran Wu;Shogo L. Urakawa;L. Zanna

Radiative Effects of Clouds and Water Vapor on an Axisymmetric Monsoon

DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0974.1
发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
Journal of Climate
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
M. Byrne;L. Zanna
通讯作者：
M. Byrne;L. Zanna

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06386-y
发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
Climate Dynamics
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
M. Couldrey;J. Gregory;Xiao Dong;O. Garuba;H. Haak;A. Hu;W. Hurlin;Jiangbo Jin;J. Jungclaus;A. Köhl;Hailong Liu;S. Ojha;O. Saenko;A. Savita;Tatsuo Suzuki;Zipeng Yu;L. Zanna
通讯作者：
M. Couldrey;J. Gregory;Xiao Dong;O. Garuba;H. Haak;A. Hu;W. Hurlin;Jiangbo Jin;J. Jungclaus;A. Köhl;Hailong Liu;S. Ojha;O. Saenko;A. Savita;Tatsuo Suzuki;Zipeng Yu;L. Zanna

Relating Patterns of Added and Redistributed Ocean Warming

海洋变暖增加和重新分布的相关模式