Probability and Uncertainty in Risk Estimation and Communication

风险评估和沟通中的概率和不确定性

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N012356/1
负责人：
Ian Main
金额：
$ 25.95万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN012356%2F1
关键词：
Probability Uncertainty Risk Estimation Communication

项目摘要

Our overall aim is to build earthquake resilience in China by improving (a) the assessment of seismic hazard and risk from earthquakes and consequent events and (b) the communication and use of probabilistic information in the development of more proportionate and risk-based strategies for disaster risk reduction. We will build on and extend a recently-developed historical catalogue for earthquakes, extend it for the first time to include consequent events (landslides, debris/mud-flows, outburst floods), unify this new database with modern instrumental data, use state-of the art statistical techniques to quantify the associated uncertainties, and incorporate social science-based understanding of risk communication and governance to improve policy development and implementation. The work programme will be carried out in Si-chuan (including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake) and Yun-nan provinces. While they are both tectonically active, and mountainous, and thus vulnerable not only to earthquakes but also to consequent hazards of earthquake-triggered landslides and flooding, Si-chuan is one of the wealthiest provinces in China, while Yun-nan is one of poorest. These differences in wealth, combined with the recency of the devastating 2008 Wenchuan in Si-chuan compared to the more attenuated memory of the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yun-nan, make for a natural experiment in which to test the efficacy of improved probabilistic assessment of risk and associated uncertainty to people and property by earthquakes, and consequent event hazards, in supporting more risk-based approaches to disaster reduction.This project will promote long-term sustainable growth in earthquake prone regions of China by improving both the assessment of earthquake hazard and consequent event risk and the communication, understanding, and use of the resulting probabilistic forecasts for disaster risk reduction by policymakers and local publics. It addresses several specific capacity gaps identified in successive Chinese national disaster risk reduction strategies. As well as engaging with policymakers at both the national and local levels to improve the effectiveness of emergency planning and building code regulation, we will also engage directly with local publics to enhance public understanding of risk and capacity to deal with it. In so doing, the project will also fulfil the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment to promoting "the economic development and welfare of developing countries" by drawing on UK's science base to address a key vulnerability differentially affecting the very poorest in China.

我们的总体目的是通过改善（a）评估地震危害和地震风险以及随之而来的事件以及（b）在开发更比例和风险的策略以开发概率信息的沟通和使用，从而在中国建立地震韧性。减少灾害风险。我们将建立并扩展最近开发的地震历史目录，首次将其扩展，以包括随之而来的事件（滑坡，碎片/泥土流，爆发洪水），将此新数据库统一使用现代工具数据，使用状态 - 量化相关不确定性的艺术统计技术，并纳入了基于社会科学的风险沟通和治理以改善政策制定和实施的理解。该工作计划将在Si-Chuan（包括2008年的Wenchuan地震）和Yun-Nan省进行。尽管它们既有构造活动，而且山区，因此不仅容易受到地震的侵害，而且对地震触发的山地滑坡和洪水的危害也很容易受到伤害，但Si-Chuan是中国最富有的省份之一，而Yun-Nan是最贫穷的省份之一。与1996年云南的lijiang地震的记忆相比通过地震对人和财产的风险和相关的不确定性，以及随之而来的事件危害，在支持更多基于风险的减少灾难的方法中。该项目将通过改善地震危害的评估来促进中国地震易于的长期可持续增长以及事件风险以及对政策制定者和当地公众降低灾难风险的概率预测的沟通，理解和使用。它解决了连续中国国家灾害风险策略中发现的几个特定容量差距。除了与国家和地方一级的决策者互动以提高紧急计划和建筑法规的有效性外，我们还将直接与当地公众互动，以增强公众对处理风险和能力的理解。这样一来，该项目还将通过利用英国的科学基础来解决英国对促进“发展中国家的经济发展和福利”的官方发展援助（ODA）的承诺，以解决对中国最贫穷的关键脆弱性的解决。