Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Natural Environment

自然环境中的概率、不确定性和风险

基本信息

批准号：
NE/J016438/1
负责人：
Ian Main
金额：
$ 39.31万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2012 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ016438%2F1
关键词：
Probability Uncertainty Risk Natural Environment

项目摘要

Natural hazards pose serious problems to society and to the global economy. Recent examples in the UK include the cold winters of 2009 and 2010 and the eruptions of the Grimsvotn and Eyjafjallajökull volcanoes with the consequent disruption to air travel. Moving further afield, the first half of 2011 saw major disasters in Australia (flood), New Zealand (earthquake), Japan (earthquake and tsunami) and the US (hurricanes).It would be nice if scientists could provide precise information to help with the management of such events. This is unrealistic, however, for several reasons: data are usually incomplete (e.g. not available at all required locations) and measured with error; predictions are made using computer models that can at best approximate reality; and our understanding of some phenomena is limited by lack of experience (for example, the historical tsunami record is relatively limited). Therefore, natural hazard scientists must acknowledge the uncertainty in the information they provide, and must communicate this uncertainty effectively to users of the science. However, neither of these tasks is easy. Moreover, scientists do not always understand what users want and need; and users themselves often are uncomfortable with uncertainty. Despite these problems, modern statistical methods are available for handling uncertainty in complex systems using probability theory. In parallel, social science researchers are interested in understanding how people react to and understand uncertainty. By bringing these two developments together, and linking with scientists from several hazard areas along with a variety of users, we aim (a) to demonstrate a generic framework for handling uncertainty across hazards; and (b) to develop improved tools for communicating uncertain information. The generic framework considered here has three core components. The first is the treatment of uncertainties arising from our imperfect models and imperfect understanding of any complex system. The second is the combination of information from various sources that are all judged to be relevant: this is particularly important in event management situations where decision-makers must take rapid action based on multiple strands of evidence that might be apparently contradictory. The third is the treatment of uncertainties that are deemed to be "unquantifiable" or too hard to handle:an example from the insurance industry involves how much money to set aside to cover the cost of an event that is known to be possible but for which no historical loss data are available (such as an Atlantic tsunami caused by the collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma). Five case studies will be used to illustrate the framework: (1) flood risk management in the UK; (2) earthquake hazard in the UK (relevant to the nuclear power industry) and in Italy; (3) tsunami hazard and risk assessment, including the development of methods to improve real-time warning systems; (4) the interpretation of days-ahead weather forecasts (focusing on wind speeds and cold weather); (5) volcanic ash dispersal, again including real-time warning systems. A final, and critical, component of the proposed research relates to the communication and use of the uncertainty information derived from the three previous components. Working with industrial partners, we will demonstrate how an improved understanding of uncertainty in the hazard itself can be translated through into risk assessments (which focus on the consequence of the hazard, for example the economic loss or damage to infrastructure). We will also carry out research to understand better how people perceive and use risk information. The results will be used to inform the development of novel methods for communicating natural hazard risk information to specialist and non-specialist users; and also (in collaboration with the PURE Network) to produce a handbook of risk communication for natural hazards.

自然灾害给社会和全球经济带来了严重问题，包括 2009 年和 2010 年的寒冷冬季以及上半年的格里姆斯沃特火山和埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖火山喷发导致的航空旅行中断。 2011 年澳大利亚（洪水）、新西兰（地震）、日本（地震和地震）发生了重大灾害海啸）和美国（飓风）。如果科学家能够提供精确的信息来帮助管理此类事件，那就太好了，然而，这是不现实的，原因有几个：数据通常不完整（例如，并非在所有所需地点都可用）。）并且测量存在误差；使用计算机模型进行的预测最多只能近似现实；并且我们对某些现象的理解因缺乏经验而受到限制（例如，历史海啸记录相对有限）。承认不确定性然而，这些任务都不容易理解用户的需求；尽管如此，用户本身也常常对不确定性感到不舒服。为了解决这些问题，现代统计方法可以使用概率论来处理复杂系统中的不确定性。同时，社会科学研究人员有兴趣通过将这两种发展结合起来，并与来自多种危险的科学家联系起来，了解人们如何应对和理解不确定性。领域以及各种用户，我们的目标是（a）展示一个通用的跨危险的不确定性处理框架；以及（b）开发用于传达不确定信息的改进工具。第一个是处理由于我们对任何复杂系统的不完善和不完善的模型理解而产生的不确定性。第二个是来自各种来源的信息的组合，这些信息都被认为是相关的：这在事件管理情况下尤其重要，因为决策者必须根据多种证据采取快速行动，而这些证据可能与不确定性的处理方式明显矛盾。被视为“无法量化”或太难处理：保险业的一个例子涉及预留多少钱来支付已知可能发生但没有历史损失数据的事件（例如大西洋海啸）将使用五个案例研究来说明该框架：(1) 英国的洪水风险管理；(2) 英国的地震灾害（与核电行业相关）。）和意大利； (3) 海啸灾害和风险评估，包括开发改进实时预警系统的方法； (4) 解释未来几天的天气预报（重点关注风速和寒冷天气）； (5) 火山灰扩散；再次包括实时预警系统。拟议研究的最后一个关键部分涉及来自前三个部分的不确定性信息的沟通和使用，我们将展示如何更好地理解不确定性。危险本身可以我们还将开展研究，以更好地了解人们如何看待和使用风险信息。为开发向专业和非专业用户传达自然灾害风险信息的新方法提供信息，并（与 PURE Network 合作）制作自然灾害风险交流手册。