Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

确保对间断和激增事件的多学科理解和预测 (SMURPHS)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N006038/1
负责人：
Piers Forster
金额：
$ 102.49万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN006038%2F1
关键词：
Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding Prediction Hiatus

项目摘要

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.

目前，气候正在发生变化，主要是因为通过人类活动发出的其他温室气体正在加热地球。由于未来气候变暖可能会对社会造成损害，因此政府正在协调减少温室气体排放的努力，以避免这些破坏性后果。然而，尽管大气温室气体浓度的持续增长，但自1990年代以来，地球表面的变暖速度有所下降。尽管在全球表面变暖中找到这种放缓（或“裂口”）的简单原因很诱人，但气候系统非常复杂，并且有许多因素可以解释地表温度记录中的肿块和凸起，其中还包括变暖速率的增加（或“ SURGES”）。我们提出的研究计划的目的是更充分地了解所有贡献因素如何解释过去的中断和激增（H/S）事件，这最终将有助于改善未来几十年和未来的未来气候变化的预测。H/S事件的潜在原因：自然（所谓的不受欢迎的）气候变化，由于复杂的气候变化，由于复杂的跨越大气，陆地，大气，大气，大气，大气，大气，大气;由于火山喷发或太阳亮度的变化而引起的自然气候变化；由于自然变化或人为引起的因素，热量如何转移到深海；由于人类活动引起的甲烷等气体排放的变化；温度观察分布的局限性，使得裂隙部分是不完美观察的伪影。 H/S事件可能不是由一个因素组合引起的，而不是一个原因。这就是为什么需要一支具有广泛专业知识的大型团队一起评估不同的流程的原因。我们的项目确保了对中断和激增事件（Smurphs）的多学科理解和预测（Smurphs），将来自英国9家研究所的研究人员组成了全面的研究人员社区，其中包括5个项目合作伙伴，包括大气，海洋和陆地上的专家。SMURPHS拥有3个研究主题，该研究主题，该研究主题，该研究主题，该研究主题，计算机化，并详细概述，并实现了3个广泛的目标。目标1是建立一个基本框架，以解释大气和海洋之间的能量，并确定H/S事件之间的相似性和相似之处。目标2是了解可能触发H/S事件并延长其长度的机制，考虑到人类和自然因素。目标3是评估是否可以预测H/S事件，以及在未来几十年中对气候的近期预测需要哪些信息，这对于社会如何适应变化很重要。为了实现这些目标，来自各个学科的科学家将在每种可能性上发挥作用，并在整个团队中传达他们的发现。 Smurphs将产生其结果的广泛综合。Smurphs将具有许多受益者。除了全球科学界之外，对H/S事件的了解的提高在国家和国际层面上对于设计未来的温室气体排放和有效适应气候变化的政策很重要。政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）评估对国际和国家一级的气候政策制定有深远的影响。参与Smurphs的科学家对以前的IPCC报告做出了重大贡献，Smurphs科学和科学家将为未来的评估做出重大贡献。