COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC)

扩散到卷云中的轨迹 (COSIC)

• 批准号: NE/G005109/1
• 负责人: Piers Forster
• 金额: $ 38.82万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG005109%2F1
• 关键词: COntrails; Spreading; Into; Cirrus; COSIC

BACKGROUND In the last fifty years aviation has experienced very rapid development, with air traffic recording an almost 9% yearly growth rate in the first half of the period (approximately 2.5 times the average GDP growth rate) and approximately 5% yearly growth rate in the second half of the period. According to the most recent estimates, aviation climatic impact amounts to 2-8% of the global radiative forcing associated with climate change. As a result of the expected increase in air traffic in the next decades, the relative importance of air traffic on climate change is expected to increase significantly. THE NEED FOR COSIC AND AIMS One of aviation's largest effects is likely to be that due to contrails and their spreading into cirrus. This could be considerably larger than the effects of increased CO2 emissions but this contrail-cirrus remains unquantified. Previous estimates of combined aviation induced cloudiness suggest that spreading contrails could be important. However, these studies rely on correlating air traffic with cirrus coverage and have large uncertainties and methodological problems. The ultimate aim of this proposal is, for the first time, to build a physically based parameterisation of contrail-cirrus - to determine its role in climate change, testing whether it has a larger role than line-shaped contrails. To achieve this ultimate goal, observations of contrail properties and their spreading will be made with FAAM (research aircraft) flights and satellite observations. Then a hierarchy of models will be used to develop a contrail-cirrus cloud parameterisation within the Met Office Unified Model, working closely with both the Met Office and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) partners, and constraining the developed parameterisations by the observations made by University of Manchester and Met Office researchers during the aircraft campaign. WORKPLAN WP1 will perform an aircraft campaign making 6 'case study' observations of spreading contrail during 2009 in an area out of the flight corridor to the southwest of the UK . We will use a novel 'figure of eight' flight pattern to make and monitor our own contrail and, in particular, track its evolution into cirrus. We will measure its radiative forcing by flying cross sections above and below and by monitoring from space using the GERB and SEVIRI geostationary instruments. We will make use of state-of-the-art observations made by the Met Office and University of Manchester groups. We will also rely on ice supersaturation forecasts supplied by the University of Reading group using European Centre forecasts. WP2 will use idealised modelling data supplied by DLR and the detailed observations made during WP1 to simulate specific case studies observed during the aircraft campaign. Particular attention will be made to the later stages of contrail lifecycle. WP3 will again make use of idealised DLR data and our own (and others) case-study data to build a prognostic contrail-cirrus scheme for the Met Office Unified Model. WP4 will employ the Unified Model with this parameterisation to predict the radiative forcing and climate impact from contrail-cirrus, comparing its climate impact to that estimated for line-shaped contrails.

在过去的五十年中，航空业的背景经历了非常快速的发展，在此期间的上半年，空中流量的年度增长近9％（约为平均GDP增长率的2.5倍），下半年的年度增长率约为5％。根据最近的估计，航空气候影响占与气候变化相关的全球辐射强迫的2-8％。由于未来几十年的空中流量预计会增加，预计空中流量对气候变化的相对重要性将大大增加。对宇宙的需求和目标最大的影响之一可能是由于围栏及其扩散到卷心所引起的影响。这可能被认为大于增加的二氧化碳排放量的影响，但这种缩小的ciRRRE仍然没有量化。先前对航空联合引起的多云的估计表明，扩散围栏可能很重要。但是，这些研究依赖于将空中流量与卷心覆盖范围相关联，并且存在很大的不确定性和方法论问题。该提案的最终目的是首次建立基于物理的参数化的围栏 - 确定其在气候变化中的作用，测试它是否具有比线形档案更大的作用。为了实现这一最终目标，将通过FAAM（研究飞机）的飞行和卫星观察进行观察，对围栏属性及其扩散进行观察。然后，将使用模型的层次结构来开发集市统一模型内的缩小云参数化，并与Met Office和DeutschesZentrumfürLuft-unf- unf- unf-udfahrt（dlr）合作伙伴紧密合作，并通过曼彻斯特大学的竞选活动和竞选活动的竞选活动来限制了开发的参数。 Workplan WP1将进行一项飞机运动，对2009年在英国西南航空走廊的一个地区进行6个“案例研究”观察结果。我们将使用一种新颖的“八个飞机”飞行模式来制作和监视我们自己的围栏，尤其是跟踪其发展为卷心的进化。我们将通过使用Gerb和Seviri地球静止仪器从上方和下方的横截面和从空间进行监测，测量其辐射强迫。我们将利用梅特办公室和曼彻斯特大学的最先进的观察结果。我们还将依靠阅读大学使用欧洲中心森林提供的冰层过饱和森林。 WP2将使用DLR提供的理想建模数据以及WP1期间的详细观察结果，以模拟飞机活动期间观察到的特定案例研究。特别关注围栏生命周期的后期阶段。 WP3将再次利用理想化的DLR数据和我们自己的（以及其他）案例研究数据来为MET Office Unified Model构建预后的围栏围栏方案。 WP4将采用这种参数化的统一模型来预测关节尾部的辐射强迫和气候影响，将其气候影响与估计线形围栏的气候影响进行比较。

项目成果

Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness

大量甲烷释放导致强烈的气溶胶强迫并减少云量

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-6961-2011
• 发表时间: 2011
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Kurtén T

The Mediterranean summertime ozone maximum: global emission sensitivities and radiative impacts

地中海夏季臭氧最大值：全球排放敏感性和辐射影响

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-2331-2013
• 发表时间: 2013
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Richards N

The annual cycle in lower stratospheric temperatures revisited

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-3701-2011
• 发表时间: 2010-11
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: S. Fueglistaler;P. Haynes;P. Forster

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

一种对凝结尾迹演化为卷云时的微物理和辐射特性进行原位和遥感的方法

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-8157-2012
• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: J. Haywood;F. Marenco;D. O’Sullivan;J. Meyer;R. Thorpe;M. W. Gallagher;M. Krämer;K. N. Bower;G. Rädel;A. Rap;A. Woolley;P. Forster;H. Coe
• 通讯作者: H. Coe