SANDPIT: Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals (IAGP)

SANDPIT：地球工程提案综合评估 (IAGP)

基本信息

批准号：
EP/I014721/1
负责人：
Piers Forster
金额：
$ 220.29万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2010 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FI014721%2F1
关键词：
SANDPIT Integrated Assessment Geoengineering Proposals

项目摘要

There is international consensus that dangerous levels of climate change must be avoided. Yet without radical changes in the ways energy is sourced and used, analyses suggest that there is a very real risk that the Earth will start to experience unacceptably damaging and disruptive environmental change later this century. What future actions can be taken to safeguard environmental quality, ecosystems, agriculture, economy, and societies if the conventional approaches to tackling climate change, through mitigation and adaptation, prove insufficient? Could we take direct control of our planet's temperature in an emergency? Deliberately manipulating the Earth's climate is not a novel idea, however increasing awareness and concern about the potentially serious nature of a much warmer climate has led to recent debates regarding the ethics and feasibility of making a direct intervention in the Earth's climate and natural systems to counteract global warming and the other known impacts of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.As this new research field, known as 'geoengineering', has gained in international profile, ideas for either removing CO2 from the atmosphere or directly altering the amount of sunlight absorbed at the surface have proliferated. Suggested means of removing CO2 span marine and terrestrial biospheres, from enhancing marine productivity by fertilizing the surface of the ocean with nutrients, to adding lime to neutralize the CO2 acidity. Direct cooling of the surface could potentially be done by injecting sulphate aerosols into the atmosphere or planting more reflective varieties of crops. However, despite the effort and scientific ingenuity being brought to bear in thinking up different geoengineering schemes, all remain un-quantified in their effectiveness, particularly at the regional scale. Some are unlikely ever to work as envisaged, and many contain the potential for undesirable climatic side-effects and risks to the environment and to society. Currently we have insufficient information to inform the debate we need to have on geoengineering. The Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering Proposals ('IAGP') is an interdisciplinary project which will begin to address this gap in our knowledge, paying particular attention to the potential for side-effects and unanticipated consequences of geoengineering schemes. The project will develop a comprehensive evaluation framework (involving stakeholders and publics), which will allow an in-depth comparison of all major geoengineering proposals. The project research tools will include state-of-the-art computer representations of the Earth system, accounting for ocean circulation, sea-ice, and greenhouse warming and atmospheric processes and dynamics, as well as the cycling of carbon and nutrients within the ocean. Important questions to be addressed include: whether different technologies can be combined to maximize mitigation benefits and minimize unwanted risks, how might geoengineering schemes be adequately controlled and 'turned off' quickly if needed, how to include the public's views in how benefits and side-effects are defined in order for policy-makers to take informed decisions. The project combines Earth system modelling and deliberative engagement with stakeholders and publics to ensure the evaluation is accountable to a variety of values and criteria and ensures that issues and society's values are centrally incorporated within the evaluation.The results of our analysis of the effectiveness and implications of different CO2 removal and direct cooling schemes will not only have direct policy relevance through informing decisions about our global environmental future, but will be carefully tailored to give wider audiences information in a sufficiently clear and meaningful way that the debates surrounding geoengineering can be progressed further within society.

国际共识必须避免危险的气候变化水平。然而，如果没有根本改变能源的采购和使用方式，分析表明，本世纪晚些时候，地球将开始经历不可接受的破坏性和破坏性的环境变化。如果通过缓解和适应来应对气候变化的常规方法，可以采取哪些措施来保护环境质量，生态系统，农业，经济和社会，这是不足的吗？我们可以在紧急情况下直接控制地球的温度吗？故意故意操纵地球的气候并不是一个新颖的想法，无论气候更温暖的气候的潜在严重性的认识和关注都导致了有关伦理和直接干预的伦理和可行性的争论来自大气或直接改变表面吸收的阳光的量的二氧化碳已经增殖。建议除去二氧化碳跨度海洋和陆地生物圈的建议，从通过用养分施肥来提高海洋生产力，到添加石灰到中和二氧化碳酸度。表面的直接冷却可以通过将硫酸盐气溶胶注入大气或种植更多反射性作物来完成。然而，尽管在思考不同的地球工程方案方面付出了努力和科学的创造力，但所有这些方案都在其有效性上，尤其是在区域规模上都没有得到验证。有些人不太可能像设想的那样工作，许多人包含对环境和社会造成不良气候副作用和风险的潜力。目前，我们没有足够的信息来告知我们需要在地球工程上进行的辩论。地球工程提案的综合评估（“ IAGP”）是一个跨学科项目，它将开始在我们的知识中解决这一差距，特别关注地球工程方案的副作用和意外后果的潜力。该项目将开发一个全面的评估框架（涉及利益相关者和公众），这将允许对所有主要地球工程提案进行深入比较。项目研究工具将包括地球系统的最先进计算机表示，考虑海洋循环，海冰，温室变暖，大气过程和动态，以及海洋内的碳和养分的循环。要解决的重要问题包括：是否可以合并不同的技术来最大化缓解效果并最大程度地减少不必要的风险，如何充分控制地球工程计划，并在需要时快速“关闭”，并在需要时“关闭”，如何将公众的看法包括在方式和副作用方面，以便对政策制定者采取知名度的决定来定义。该项目将地球系统的建模与利益相关者和公众相结合，以确保评估对各种价值和标准负责，并确保问题和社会的价值观在评估中被集中纳入中心纳入评估中。我们分析我们对不同CO2删除和直接降温的效率和含义的分析的结果将使我们的直接限制在全球范围内实现，但要限制环境的未来，但要确定环境的未来，但要量身定制，但要量身定制，但要量身定制，但要量身定制，但要确定环境的未来，在社会中，可以进一步发展围绕地球工程的辩论的一种足够清晰而有意义的方式。