Global Volcano Model

全球火山模型

• 批准号: NE/I030038/1
• 负责人: Susan Loughlin
• 金额: $ 19.92万
• 依托单位: British Geological Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI030038%2F1
• 关键词: Global; Volcano; Model

This project aims to develop a major international effort to create a Global Volcano Model (GVM) that provides systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk. The GVM project addresses hazards and risks on global, regional and local scales, and develops the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. The project builds on initiatives over the last several years to establish a global database of volcanic hazards (VOGRIPA) and to develop analysis and modelling tools to assess volcanic hazard and risk. The proposed GVM project also complements and interfaces with other major international initiatives, notably including the Global Volcanism Progamme of the Smithsonian Institution, WOVOdat (a database on precursors to volcanic eruptions), VHub (a US-led effort to develop an online collaborative environment for volcanology research and risk mitigation, including the development of more effective volcanic hazards models), the Volcano Observatory Best Practices Programme and the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network. The GVM project has parallels with the Global Earthquake Model in intention and scope of providing an authoritative source for assessing volcanic hazard and risk. There is a strong international consensus that GVM is an essential and timely undertaking. This project, which is within the natural hazards theme of NERC's strategy, provides a unique opportunity for the UK to play a leading role in a major international effort to address volcanic hazard and risk.There are 50 or so volcanic eruptions a year worldwide with approximately 20 ongoing at any one time. Increased global volcanic risk derives from factors that are increasing exposure and vulnerability, such as population growth, environmental degradation, urbanization, inequality and increasing independencies in a globalised world. There is also a decrease in societal resilience arising from the way society is organized and the increasing complexities of systems required to respond to emergencies, especially where impacts extend beyond national boundaries. The GVM project will develop an integrated global database system on volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure, make this globally accessible and crucially involve the international volcanological community and users in a partnership to design, develop, analyse and maintain the database system. The main hazards include: explosive eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lava domes, lava flows, lahars, tephra fall and ash dispersal, gas, flank collapse, debris flows and health hazards. New reliability indices and measures of uncertainty will be essential elements of the GVM. The GVM project will aim to establish new international metadata standards that will reduce ambiguity in the use of global volcanic datasets. Vulnerability and exposure data will be integrated into the GVM and again new methods of assessment and analysis will be investigated and tested. The integrated database system will be made available via an interactive web system with search engines using both spatial and text-based commands. The downloadable products (including maps, tables and text) and web system will be developed with end-users. Addition of data by users will be facilitated via an upload facility. New data or corrections will be validated by an editor before being incorporated.The project also intends to establish methodologies for analysis of the evidence and data to inform risk assessment, to develop complementary volcanic hazards models, and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. Only a very broad international interdisciplinary partnership that is closely aligned to the needs of users of research can meet all these ambitious objectives. The research will provide the scientific basis for mitigation strategies, responses to ash in the atmosphere for the aviation industry, land-use planning, evacuation plans and management of volcanic emergencies.

该项目旨在制定一项重大的国际努力，以创建全球火山模型（GVM），该模型提供了系统的证据，数据和火山危害和风险的分析。 GVM项目解决了全球，区域和地方规模的危害和风险，并发展了预测未来火山及其后果的能力。该项目建立在过去几年中，建立了全球火山危害数据库（Vogripa），并开发分析和建模工具来评估火山危害和风险。拟议的GVM项目还与其他主要的国际倡议进行了补充和接口火山学研究和风险缓解，包括开发更有效的火山危害模型），火山天文台最佳实践计划和国际火山健康危害网络。 GVM项目与全球地震模型的意图和范围相似，以提供评估火山风险和风险的权威来源。有一个强烈的国际共识，即GVM是必不可少的，及时的。该项目属于NERC策略的自然危害主题，为英国提供了一个独特的机会，可以在国际危险和风险方面发挥主要作用。任何一次都在进行。全球火山风险的增加源于增加暴露和脆弱性的因素，例如人口增长，环境退化，城市化，不平等和不平等的独立性。社会组织的组织方式以及对紧急情况响应所需的系统的复杂性越来越复杂，社会韧性也有所下降，尤其是在影响范围之外的情况下。 GVM项目将开发一个有关火山危害，脆弱性和暴露的集成全球数据库系统，使其在全球范围内易于访问，并至关重要的是涉及国际火山学界和用户建立合作伙伴关系，以设计，开发，分析，分析和维护数据库系统。主要危害包括：爆炸性喷发，火山碎屑流，熔岩圆顶，熔岩流，拉哈尔人，tephra跌落和灰分扩散，气体，侧面塌陷，碎屑流和健康危害。新的可靠性指标和不确定性度量将是GVM的重要要素。 GVM项目将旨在建立新的国际元数据标准，以减少全球火山数据集使用的歧义。脆弱性和暴露数据将集成到GVM中，并将再次研究和测试新的评估和分析方法。集成数据库系统将通过使用空间和基于文本的命令的交互式Web系统与搜索引擎一起提供。最终用户将开发可下载的产品（包括地图，表和文本）和Web系统。用户增加数据将通过上传设施促进。在合并之前，编辑将验证新数据或更正。该项目还打算建立分析证据和数据的方法，以告知风险评估，开发互补的火山危害模型，并创建相关的危害和风险评估工具。只有一个非常广泛的国​​际跨学科合作伙伴关系与研究用户的需求密切相符，才能满足所有这些雄心勃勃的目标。这项研究将为缓解策略，对航空业大气中对灰烬的反应提供科学基础，土地利用计划，疏散计划和火山紧急情况的管理。

项目成果

Catastrophe Modelling

灾难建模

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Loughlin S

Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk

全球火山危害和风险

• DOI: 10.1017/cbo9781316276273.004
• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Brown S

Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards

自然灾害百科全书

• DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4399-4_39
• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Loughlin S

Science for Disaster Risk Management

灾害风险管理科学

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Loughlin, S. C.,

Global database on large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions (LaMEVE)

• DOI: 10.1186/2191-5040-1-4
• 发表时间: 2012-01-01
• 期刊: Journal of Applied Volcanology
• 作者: Crosweller, H.S.