The UK Earth system modelling project.

英国地球系统建模项目。

• 批准号: NE/N017994/1
• 负责人: Susan Loughlin
• 金额: $ 3.05万
• 依托单位: British Geological Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN017994%2F1
• 关键词: UK; Earth; system; modelling; project.

Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, the research community have developed Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These mathematical-computer models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period (before ~1850) to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane, ozone), aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the simulated future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios representing plausible future socio-economic development pathways. Each of the time-evolving model future climates are then compared to the pre-industrial and present-day climates from the same model. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates, linked to each of the applied development pathways, that can be used to assess potential socio-economic and ecological impacts and aid in the development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.GCMs have recently been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs). A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle. Climate change is primarily driven by human emissions of carbon dioxide which traps a fraction of the Earth's emitted radiation in the atmosphere, warming it and the Earth's surface. This direct warming from increasing carbon dioxide can be amplified or damped by various feedbacks in the climate system (e.g. involving water vapour, clouds or sea-ice). A key determinant of the climate change impact of human-emitted carbon dioxide is how much of the emitted gas actually stays in the atmosphere where it can interact with the Earth's emitted radiation. Presently, around 50% of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans stays in the atmosphere, the remaining 50% being taken up, in roughly equal measures, by the terrestrial biosphere and the world oceans. There is increasing evidence to suggest the efficiency of these natural carbon reservoirs in absorbing human-emitted carbon dioxide may change in the future, being sensitive to both the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth system and to the induced climate change. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs would result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere and thereby a larger climate change (warming) for a given cumulative emission of carbon dioxide.To address the need to simulate both the changing global climate and the carbon cycle response to a changing climate and changing atmospheric composition, we are developing the 1st UK Earth system model, based on the core physical GCM, HadGEM3, developed at the Met Office. This development is a major collaboration between NERC centres and the Met Office, integrating a large body of core research and development into a single, world-leading ESM. This proposal aims to secure the NERC funding to maintain this collaboration. The project will support the final development and community release of the 1st UKESM models, as well as application of these models to a range of collaborative science experiments carried out at the international level to support the IPCC AR6. The project has a major emphasis on evaluating the full range of climate and biogeochemical processes and interactions simulated by UKESM1 models with an aim to increase confidence in future projections made with the models. The project will also generate and analyse a suite of such projections and deliver a set of robust estimates of Earth system change to UK government, business and the public. Finally, the project will initiate long-term development of a 2nd version of the UKESM model, for release ~2023.

全球气候变化是人类面临的主要环境威胁之一。为了制定适当的缓解和适应策略，需要对地球气候未来状态的准确预测。为了解决这个问题，研究界开发了全球气候模型（GCM），描述了耦合气候系统中的主要物理过程。这些数学计算机模型是在模拟时间内集成的，从工业前时期（之前）到当今，由观察到的关键温室气体（例如二氧化碳，甲烷，臭氧），气溶胶和土地溶胶和土地质量的估计值强迫。使用。然后，这些模型继续进入模拟的未来，这是由一系列的温室气体，气溶胶和土地利用场景强迫，代表了合理的未来社会经济发展途径。然后，将每个随着时间推移的模型未来的气候与同一模型的前工业和当今气候进行比较。该分析导致气候变化估计的合奏，与每种应用开发途径相关，可用于评估潜在的社会经济和生态影响，并有助于缓解气候变化和适应政策的发展。进一步发展为地球系统模型（ESMS）。 ESMS和GCM之间的一个关键区别是，前者包括对全球碳循环的互动描述。气候变化主要是由二氧化碳的人类排放驱动的，二氧化碳会在大气中捕获地球发射的辐射的一小部分，使其变暖和地球表面。通过气候系统中的各种反馈（例如，涉及水蒸气，云或海冰），可以将增加二氧化碳的直接变暖受到扩增或抑制。人体二氧化碳的气候变化影响的关键决定因素是，发射的气体实际上留在大气中可以与地球发射的辐射相互作用。目前，人类发出的二氧化碳中约有50％停留在大气中，剩下的50％被陆地生物圈和世界海洋以大致相等的措施采用。有越来越多的证据表明，这些天然碳储层在吸收人体二氧化碳吸收二氧化碳的效率可能会发生变化，对地球系统中二氧化碳的浓度既敏感又对诱发的气候变化敏感。地球天然碳储层的吸收效率降低将导致大气中剩余的发射二氧化碳的较大部分，从而使给定的二氧化碳排放量更大的气候变化（变暖）。全球气候变化和对气候变化和大气成分变化的碳循环响应，我们正在开发基于在气氛办公室开发的核心物理GCM HADGEM3的第一个英国地球系统模型。这一发展是NERC中心与大都会办公室之间的主要合作，将大量的核心研发和发展整合到一个世界领先的ESM中。该提案旨在确保NERC资金维持这项合作。该项目将支持第一个UKESM模型的最终开发和社区发布，并将这些模型应用于国际层面进行的一系列协作科学实验，以支持IPCC AR6。该项目主要着重于评估UKESM1模型模拟的各种气候和生物地球化学过程以及相互作用的全部范围，旨在提高对模型未来预测的信心。该项目还将生成和分析此类预测的套件，并向英国政府，企业和公众提供一系列对地球系统变化的强大估计。最后，该项目将启动第二版的UKESM模型的长期开发，以宣布2023年。