PUBLIC POLICIES EFFECTS ON SAVING FOR RETIREMENT

公共政策对退休储蓄的影响

• 批准号: 2390062
• 负责人: WILLIAM G GALE
• 金额: $ 12.15万
• 依托单位: BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-09-30 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2390062
• 关键词: behavioral /social science research tag; disability insurance; human data; human old age (65+); income; mathematical model; model design /development; public assistance; retirement; social model; socioeconomics

DESCRIPTION: The central goal of this research is to analyze how public policies affect saving behavior and the financial status of the elderly. A particular goal is to assess the effects of government tax and spending policies within a well-specified simulation model of household saving. A related goal is to examine the impact of pensions on household wealth accumulation. Another related goal is to examine the adequacy of households' preparations for retirement, and the factors that cause households to save inadequately. To achieve these long-term objectives, the research has several specific aims: (1) To examine the effects of pensions on household wealth accumulation. Prior research contains a series of econometric problems, each of which biases the results toward showing that the estimated effect of pensions on other wealth is more positive than the true effect. Many of the biases can be corrected and doing so can materially affect the results. The research would extend the theoretical analysis and, using improved data, apply the empirical work to different population groups. (2) To extend earlier work modeling government policies using a life-cycle simulation model, where households save for retirement and as a precaution against uncertain income and mortality risk. New research would expand the model to include endogenous retirement choices, uncertain asset returns, and other features. (3) To use the simulation model to examine the long-term and transitional effects of a variety of social security reforms. (4) To model how much households should be saving during their working years to preserve their pre-retirement living standards in retirement. In contrast to most "financial planning" frameworks, the investigators incorporate uncertainty about wages, lifespan, and rates of return. In conjunction with empirical work, the results will help show which groups are at risk, to what extent, why, and what policies could help. (5) To use the simulation model to develop new tests of the impact of saving incentives on saving by comparing the empirical patterns in the simulation model, where saving incentives provide virtually no net new saving during the first 15 years, to observed saving patterns of households with and without saving incentives in various data sets.

描述：本研究的中心目标是分析公众如何 政策影响老年人的储蓄行为和财务状况。一个 具体目标是评估政府税收和支出的影响 在一个明确的家庭储蓄模拟模型中制定政策。一个 相关目标是研究养老金对家庭财富的影响 积累。另一个相关目标是检查 家庭退休准备情况及影响因素 家庭储蓄不足。为了实现这些长期目标， 研究有几个具体目的：（1）检验养老金的影响 关于家庭财富积累。先前的研究包含一系列 计量经济学问题，每个问题的结果都偏向于表明 养老金对其他财富的估计影响比 真实效果。许多偏见是可以纠正的，这样做可以 对结果产生重大影响。该研究将扩展理论 分析并使用改进的数据将实证工作应用于不同的 人口群体。 (2) 扩展早期的政府政策建模工作 使用生命周期模拟模型，家庭为退休储蓄 并作为预防不确定的收入和死亡风险的预防措施。新的 研究将扩展该模型以包括内生退休选择， 资产收益不确定等特点。 (3) 使用模拟 模型来检验各种因素的长期和过渡影响 社会保障改革。 (4) 模拟家庭应该储蓄多少 在工作期间保持退休前的生活水平 在退休时。与大多数“财务规划”框架相比， 调查人员考虑了工资、寿命和死亡率的不确定性 返回。结合实证工作，结果将有助于表明 哪些群体面临风险、程度如何、原因以及哪些政策可以提供帮助。 (5) 利用仿真模型开发新的节能影响测试 通过比较模拟中的经验模式来激励储蓄 模型中，储蓄激励措施在期间几乎不提供净新储蓄 前 15 年，观察有 和 的家庭的储蓄模式 无需在各种数据集中保存激励。