Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics (DhakaHazard)

达卡的自然灾害和气候变化：未来趋势、社会适应和非正式动态 (DhakaHazard)

• 批准号: 99490278
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Boris Braun
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Geographisches Institut
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/99490278?language=en
• 关键词: Natural; hazards; climate; change; Dhaka

Many megacities in the world, including Dhaka, are regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and tropical cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. In Greater Dhaka, the sprawl of slums and informal settlements is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other high-risk areas, with little attempt being made to limit environmental impairments. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, together with a growing vulnerability of the urban population are expected to put considerable stress on the adaptability and resilience of the social and economic system. In the past, Dhaka has shown an impressive overall adaptability to external shocks. Our project will analyze the factors behind this relative ‘stability’. Another major objective of our research is to link models predicting future climate change and weather extremes to analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies on a micro-level. To achieve these objectives, our project applies different closely related methodologies: meteorological modeling and data analysis as well as micro-level social and economic field research. Moreover, during the second funding period, our project will focus on the question of how climate change scenarios as well as weather-related and flood forecasts can be adequately communicated to the people concerned.

包括达卡在内的世界上许多大城市经常受到自然危害的威胁。由于全球气候变化和快速的城市化，尤其是与地板和热带气旋相关的风险预计将在未来几年增加。在大达卡（Greater Dhaka），贫民窟和非正式环境的蔓延主要发生在湿地，沼泽和其他高风险地区，几乎没有尝试限制环境障碍。预计极端降水量和热带气旋的增加，以及城市人口的日益增长的脆弱性将对社会和经济体系的适应性和韧性产生重大压力。过去，达卡对外部冲击表现出令人印象深刻的总体适应性。我们的项目将分析此相对“稳定性”背后的因素。我们研究的另一个主要目的是将预测未来气候变化和极端天气的模型与微观层面的非正式社会和经济适应策略的分析联系起来。为了实现这些目标，我们的项目应用了不同的密切相关方法：气象建模和数据分析以及微观的社会和经济领域研究。此外，在第二个融资期间，我们的项目将重点介绍气候变化情景以及与天气相关和洪水泛滥的森林如何充分传达给有关人员的问题。