Statistical models for detecting emerging outbreaks for health risk monitoring

用于检测新出现的疫情以进行健康风险监测的统计模型

• 批准号: 23300107
• 负责人: TANGO Toshiro
• 金额: $ 11.32万
• 依托单位: Showa Women's University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2014-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23300107/
• 关键词: 疾病集積性; 尤度比検定; ポアッソン分布; バイオテロリズム

The circular spatial scan statistic proposed by Kulldorff (1997) has been utilized to detect emerging outbreaks or clusters in many syndromic surveillance systems in USA. However, it cannot detect noncircular, irregularly shaped clusters. The flexible spatial scan statistic proposed by Tango and Takahashi (2005) has also been used for detecting irregularly shaped clusters. However, this method sets a feasible limitation of a maximum of 30 nearest neighbors for searching candidate clusters because of heavy computational load. In this study, we show a flexible spatial scan statistic implemented with a restricted likelihood ratio proposed by Tango (2008) to (1) eliminate the limitation of 30 nearest neighbors and (2) to have surprisingly much less computational time than the original flexible spatial scan statistic. As a side effect, it is shown to be able to detect clusters with any shape reasonably well as the relative risk of the cluster becomes large via Monte Carlo simulation.

Kulldorff（1997）提出的循环空间扫描统计量已用于检测美国许多综合症监测系统中出现的爆发或集群。但是，它无法检测到非圆形，不规则形状的簇。 Tango和Takahashi（2005）提出的柔性空间扫描统计量也已用于检测不规则形状的簇。但是，由于重度计算负载，此方法设定了最多30个最近的邻居进行搜索群集的可行限制。在这项研究中，我们显示了实施的灵活的空间扫描统计量，该统计量具有Tango（2008）提出的限制似然比（1）消除30个最近的邻居的局限性，并且（2）的计算时间比原始的柔性空间扫描统计量要少得多。作为副作用，它被证明能够检测出任何形状的簇，因为群集的相对风险通过蒙特卡洛模拟变得很大。

项目成果

FleXScan with a restricted likelihood ratio : a spatial scan statistic for irregularly shaped clusters

具有受限似然比的 FleXScan：不规则形状簇的空间扫描统计

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Tango T;Takahashi K.
• 通讯作者: Takahashi K.

新版ロジスティック回帰分析

新版逻辑回归分析

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: 丹後俊郎;山岡和枝;高木晴良著
• 通讯作者: 高木晴良著

複数の読影者による対応のあるクラスターデータの割合の差の信頼区間

多个读者匹配的聚类数据比例差异的置信区间

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: 佐伯浩之;丹後俊郎;汪金芳
• 通讯作者: 汪金芳

On a flexible scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio

具有受限似然比的灵活扫描统计量

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Sekita A;Arima H;Ninomiya T;Ohara T;Doi Y;Hirakawa Y;Fukuhara M;Hata J;Yonemoto K;Ga Y;Kitazono T;Kanba S;Kiyohara Y.;丹後俊郎,高橋邦彦
• 通讯作者: 丹後俊郎,高橋邦彦

A flexible scan statistic with a restricted likelihood ratio for detecting disease clusters

用于检测疾病簇的具有受限似然比的灵活扫描统计数据

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Tran;D.H.;Ho;T.B.;Pham;T.H.;Satou;K.;Tango T and Takahashi K
• 通讯作者: Tango T and Takahashi K