Space-time statistical models for detecting emerging outbreaks of rare events.

用于检测罕见事件新爆发的时空统计模型。

• 批准号: 20300101
• 负责人: TANGO Toshiro
• 金额: $ 9.73万
• 依托单位: National Institute of Public Health
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2008 至 2010
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-20300101/
• 关键词: 空間・環境統計; 症侯サーベイランス; 空間疫学; 疾病集積性; 尤度比検定; ボアッソン分布; ポアッソン分布

We have developed new statistical models as important tools for detecting emerging outbreaks of rare events threatening human health. The existing methods cannot detect irregularly shaped outbreak areas timely and appropriately. First, we developed a new restricted likelihood ratio to avoid the property of existing scan statistics that tend to detect the cluster much larger than the true cluster by swallowing neighboring regions with non-elevated risk. Second, we developed a new space-time scan statistic which compares the observed number of cases with the unconditional expected number of cases, takes a time-to-time variation of Poisson mean into account and implements an outbreak model to capture localized emerging disease outbreaks more timely and correctly. The proposed models are illustrated with data from weekly surveillance of the number of absentees in primary schools in Kita-Kyushu, Japan, 2006.

我们已经开发了新的统计模型，作为检测罕见事件爆发威胁人类健康的重要工具。现有方法无法及时且适当地检测到不规则形状的爆发区域。首先，我们开发了一个新的受限似然比，以避免现有扫描统计的特性，这些范围往往通过吞咽具有非预定风险的邻近区域来检测群集比真正的群集大得多。其次，我们开发了一种新的时空扫描统计量，该统计量将观察到的病例数与无条件的预期病例数进行了比较，考虑了泊松均值的一次性变化，并实现了一种暴发模型，以更及时，正确地捕获局部新兴疾病暴发。拟议的模型通过每周监视日本北京岛小学的缺勤人数的数据进行了说明，2006年。

项目成果

Space-Time Scan Statistics for Outbreak Detection.

用于爆发检测的时空扫描统计数据。

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: Aida J;Takahashi K;Yamaoka K;Tango T;松浦好治;Tango T.
• 通讯作者: Tango T.

A flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic for disease outbreak detection and monitoring

• DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-7-14
• 发表时间: 2008-04-11
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GEOGRAPHICS
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Takahashi, Kunihiko;Kulldorff, Martin;Yih, Katherine
• 通讯作者: Yih, Katherine