Statistical Model for evaluating health effects of dioxins around waste incinerators

评估垃圾焚烧炉周围二恶英健康影响的统计模型

基本信息

批准号：
13480072
负责人：
TANGO Toshiro
金额：
$ 9.73万
依托单位：
National Institute of Public Health
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13480072/
关键词：
dioxins Poisson distribution score test Monte Carlo simulation GIS ポアソン分布

项目摘要

There has been great public concern that adverse reproductive health effects may be associated with dioxins in emission gases from municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerators. Recently, Japan's first-ever large scale nationwide epidemiological study has begun to examine the association of adverse reproductive outcomes with mothers living within 10km from 63 MSW incinerators with high dioxin emission levels (above 80ng international toxic equivalents TEQ/m^3) in Japan. The primary purpose of our study was to investigate the statistical method to analyze the data collected in the above study and also to propose a method applicable to more general problems of raised disease risk around putative point sources.As statistical method to detect such clusters, Stone's maximum likelihood ratio test and score tests which score each case the reciprocal of the distance from a point source are popular. In our study, we have proposed extensions of score tests based on small area data in that (i)it allows us to select the best among prespecified parametric exposure functions to avoid multiple testing problems and (ii)it can be applied to a possible situation where the hazardous substance levels tend to peak at some distance from a point source. The properties of the proposed tests and their power have been examined and illustrated with hypothetical data and also the power calculation has been conducted on the study design of above-stated epidemiological study. Simulation study shows that the powers of the proposed tests are higher than that of Stone's test over all the alternatives considered.

人们非常关心的是，在市政固体废物（MSW）焚化炉的排放气体中，不利的生殖健康影响可能与二恶英有关。最近，日本在日本有史以来首次大规模的全国流行病学研究已经开始研究日本的63 MSW焚化炉的不良生殖结果与居住在10公里以内的母亲（日本高于80ng国际毒性等效物TEQ/M^3）在日本的10公里以内。我们研究的主要目的是调查分析上述研究中收集的数据的统计方法，并提出一种适用于推定点源周围疾病风险的更普遍问题的方法。作为检测此类群集的统计方法，Stone的最大可能性比率测试和分数测试对每个情况的距离均与点源相交的距离很受欢迎。在我们的研究中，我们提出了基于小面积数据的分数测试扩展，因为（i）它使我们能够在预定的参数暴露功能中选择最佳，以避免多次测试问题，并且（ii）可以将其应用于可能的情况，在这种情况下，危险物质水平倾向于在与点源的一定距离处达到峰值。通过假设数据对所提出的测试及其功率的特性进行了研究，并在上述流行病学研究的研究设计上进行了功率计算。模拟研究表明，所提出的测试的功能高于所有考虑的替代方案的测试。