A methodology for evaluating reliability of benefit of infrastructure development projects by use of discrete choice models

使用离散选择模型评估基础设施开发项目效益可靠性的方法

基本信息

批准号：
12650531
负责人：
OKADA Norio
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12650531/
关键词：
travel cost method reliability analysis discrete choice model contingent valuation method cost benefit analysis project evaluation environmental quality change risk analysis アンケート調査便益評価社会基盤整備環境質評価

项目摘要

Many manuals of practical cost-benefit analysis to evaluate efficiencies of various types of infrastructure development projects have been published in recent years as to respond to increasing needs for accountability. Simultaneously, growing public interest in natural environment makes inevitable to assess environmental effects of an infrastructure development project. The cost-benefit analysis manuals also contain explanations about benefit measurements of environmental quality change due to the projects. Although it is very important to assess reliability of the measured benefit and cost of projects as to make the project evaluation more accountable, methodology to assess reliability of cost-benefit analysis is neither well established nor considered in these manuals. This study focuses on methodological development of a methodology to assess reliability of benefit of a infrastructure development project which involves environmental quality change and its application for project ado … More ption judgment. Two different types of discrete choice models are used for describing respondents' behavior in questionnaire surveys in contingent valuation surveys and users' behavior to make trip to the area which has rich natural environment, i.e., stated preference model (SP) and revealed preference model (RP), respectively. The study proposed methods to evaluate reliability of benefits measured either by a RP based or a SP based discrete choice model. For SP model, the study successfully could derive exact estimator of confidence intervals of estimated benefits. However, for RP model, since the model is non-linear, approximation methods such as Talor-Maclaurin expansion, Edgeworth expansion and simulation based methods such as Bootstrap method, Jack-knife Methods and Monte Carlo based method are tested. The accuracy of evaluation of reliability obtained by proposed methods are checked by Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that simulation based methods fit well for enough number of trials. Applicability of the methods are also examined by case studies in the Lake Biwa and Kizu river. Methodology to judge project efficiency with noise is also proposed based on the methods to assess the reliability of benefits measured by use of discreate choice model and a graphical method to help the judgment is also proposed. Less

近年来，已经出版了许多实用成本效益分析的手册，以评估各种类型的基础设施开发项目的效率，以应对不断增长的问责制需求。同时，对自然环境的公共兴趣日益增加，不可避免地评估基础设施发展项目的环境影响。成本效益分析手册还包含有关环境质量福利衡量的解释，尽管评估项目评估的可靠性和评估项目评估的可靠性非常重要，但在这些手册中既没有很好地确定成本效益分析的可靠性，却既不考虑成本效益分析的可靠性。这项研究重点是评估基础设施开发项目利益的可靠性的方法论发展，该项目涉及环境质量变化及其在项目ADO中的应用……更多的法官。使用两种不同类型的离散选择模型来描述偶然价值调查和用户行为中的回答的行为，以使其前往具有丰富自然环境的区域，即，分别是陈述的偏好模型（SP）和揭示的偏好模型（RP）。该研究提出了评估通过基于RP或基于SP的离散选择模型衡量的福利可靠性的方法。对于SP模型，该研究成功地得出了估计收益的置信区间的精确估计器。但是，对于RP模型，由于模型是非线性的，因此测试了测试诸如Talor-Maclaurin扩展，Edgeworth扩展和基于模拟的方法，例如Bootstrap方法，Jack-Knife方法和基于Monte Carlo的方法。通过拟议方法获得的可靠性评估的准确性由蒙特卡洛模拟检查。结果表明，基于模拟的方法非常适合足够数量的试验。该方法的适用性还通过Biwa湖和Kizu河的案例研究进行了检查。还提出了基于评估通过使用裁员选择模型来衡量的福利的可靠性的方法来判断项目效率的方法，并提出了帮助判断的图形方法。较少的