Identification and Separation of Volcanic and Natural Climate Variability Signals

火山和自然气候变化信号的识别和分离

• 批准号: 22KF0010
• 负责人: 藤原 正智
• 金额: $ 1.47万
• 依托单位: Hokkaido University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2023-03-08 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22KF0010/
• 关键词: climate; volcanic eruption; climate modeling; numerical experiments; El Nino; Southern Oscillation

We have published one paper in a reputed peer-reviewed scientific journal (i.e., Earth Systems and Environment), which is a review of past studies on the El Nino Southern Oscillation linkage to strong volcanic eruptions and post-volcanic winter warming. Moreover, Dr. Dogar attended American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2022 and presented two posters.Dr. Dogar has conducted ensemble numerical experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) using Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility. Dr. Dogar has analyzed the output of the completed GFDL-CM2.1 model ensemble experiments along with the comparison/validation of model results with observational and reanalysis data.This work will provide a comprehensive description, understanding, and prediction of volcanic and natural variability signals, which is still lacking. In particular, it will help understand the circulation response to large tropical and high latitude eruptions, the importance played by the initial state of the ocean and the atmosphere at the time of the eruption, and provide key insights on the stability of the teleconnection in the climate system.

我们已经在经过著名的同行评审科学杂志（即地球系统和环境）中发表了一篇论文，该论文是对过去关于El Nino Southern振荡与强火山喷发和沃后冬季变暖的研究的综述。此外，Dogar博士参加了2022年的美国地球物理联盟（AGU）秋季会议，并介绍了两张海报。 Dogar使用地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的耦合大气 - 海洋气候模型（GFDL-CM2.1）进行了集合数值实验。 Dogar博士分析了完成的GFDL-CM2.1模型集合实验的输出，以及对模型结果与观察性和重新分析数据的比较/验证。这项工作将提供对火山和自然变异信号的全面描述，理解和预测，这仍然缺乏。特别是，它将有助于了解对大型热带和高纬度喷发的循环反应，海洋初始状态和喷发时的大气的重要性，并为气候系统中远程连接的稳定性提供了关键的见解。

项目成果

A Review of El Nino Southern Oscillation Linkage to Strong Volcanic Eruptions and Post-Volcanic Winter Warming

• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-022-00331-z
• 发表时间: 2022-11-07
• 期刊: EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 7.2
• 作者: Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar;Hermanson, Leon;Fujiwara, Masatomo
• 通讯作者: Fujiwara, Masatomo

Sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to External and Internal Variability

中东和北非 (MENA) 对外部和内部变化的敏感性

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Shahid Amina;Dogar Muhammad Mubashar
• 通讯作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar

A Review on the Sensitivity of ENSO to Strong Volcanic Eruptions

ENSO对强火山喷发敏感性的研究进展

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Shahid Amina
• 通讯作者: Shahid Amina

Disentangling the Volcanic Signals from Natural Climate Variability

解开火山信号与自然气候变化的关系

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Fujiwara Masatomo;Shahid Amina
• 通讯作者: Shahid Amina