An international comparison of migration based on the adjustment procedure

基于调整程序的国际移民比较

基本信息

批准号：
09680158
负责人：
ISHIKAWA Yoshitaka
金额：
$ 2.11万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09680158/
关键词：
migration census international comparison サンセス

项目摘要

In the 1990 census of Japan, the definition of migration changed. It led to a difficulty of direct comparison of migration data reported in 1990 census with those in 1970/80 census. We thought out an adjustment procedure, which enables us to obtain estimates of migration 1965-70/1975-80 based on the definition adopted in the 1990 census. The detailed contents of the procedure was published at No.23 issue of Jinkogaku-kenkyu (Journal of Population Studies), and this was thought out within the framework of interregional migration by age class. Basic idea is to estimate migration data so that region-specific population change during the inter-census years is equal to its observed net-migration change. This new method led to a direct comparison of the migration patterns for the three periods : 1965-70, 1975-80, and 1985-90. The procedure here has an important implication for comparability of migration data reported in the censuses of foreign countries.As an example of using the data obtained here, we attempted an international comparison of migration turnarounds in Japan. Sweden and Canada. Its result is published at Vol.5, No.1 issue of International Journal of Population Geography. Major findings obtained are as follows. Since the 1970s, similar migration turnarounds were observed in developed countries including these three countries. The paper elucidated that main determinants of them are demographic factor, which implies changing supply of young adults due to fluctuation of birth rate in the post-war years, and economic factor associated with labour market restructuring.

在1990年的日本人口普查中，移民的定义发生了变化。这导致很难将 1990 年人口普查报告的移民数据与 1970/80 年人口普查报告的移民数据进行直接比较。我们想出了一个调整程序，使我们能够根据 1990 年人口普查中采用的定义获得 1965-70/1975-80 年的移民估计。该程序的详细内容发表在《人口研究杂志》第23期上，这是在按年龄段划分的地区间迁移的框架内进行思考的。基本思想是估计移民数据，使两次人口普查期间特定地区的人口变化等于其观察到的净移民变化。这种新方法可以直接比较三个时期的移民模式：1965-70 年、1975-80 年和 1985-90 年。这里的程序对于外国人口普查中报告的移民数据的可比性具有重要意义。作为使用此处获得的数据的一个例子，我们尝试对日本的移民周转情况进行国际比较。瑞典和加拿大。其成果发表在《International Journal of Population Geography》第1期第5卷上。获得的主要发现如下。自20世纪70年代以来，包括这三个国家在内的发达国家也出现了类似的移民转变。该论文阐明，其主要决定因素是人口因素（这意味着战后出生率波动导致年轻人供给的变化）以及与劳动力市场重组相关的经济因素。