Research in Spatial Variation of Distance-decay Effect in Intra-metropolitan Migration

都市内迁移距离衰减效应空间分异研究

• 批准号: 07680171
• 负责人: ISHIKAWA Yoshitaka
• 金额: $ 1.22万
• 依托单位: KYOTO UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1995 至 1996
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07680171/
• 关键词: migration; distance-decay effect; expansion method; shift-share analysis; 大都市圏; 距離効果; 外国人

(1) Distance-decay parameter estimates derived from the spatial interaction model for intra-metropolitan migration were analyzed. The study area here was the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area, defined in 1990 population census by the Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency. The parameter estimates tended to be less negative in eastern half of the study area, while more negative in western half.Such a variation were influenced by location of the unit areas concerned within the study area. Thus, the initial model was "expanded" into the terminal model by substituting the function having the estimates as dependent variable and location data (longitude and latitude) as independent variables. This is an application of Casetti's expansion method. However, new estimates of distance-decay parameter were not necessarily linked with previous arguments satisfactorily.(2) Under lying factors of recent migration changes of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area since the 1970s, a major focal point of the Japanese migration system, were elucidated by time-series analyzes.3) With regard to the migration turnarounds observed in the decades of the 1970s and 1980s, we assumed the demographic event (specifically, changing supply of young adults due to changing fertility in the postwar period) as a possible cause. Then, its contribution was confirmed by using the shift-share analysis.

（1）分析了从空间相互作用模型中得出的距离距离的参数估计值。这里的研究区域是Keihanshin大都市地区，该地区定义在1990年由统计局，管理和协调局定义的人口普查。参数估计在研究区域的东半部往往较小，而西半部的负数则受到研究区域中有关单位区域的位置的影响。因此，将初始模型“扩展”到终端模型中，通过将估计值作为因变量和位置数据（经度和纬度）替换为自变量。这是Casetti扩展方法的应用。然而，距离预期参数的新估计不一定与先前的参数相关。（2）在1970年代以来东京大都市地区最近迁移变化的谎言因素下，日本迁移系统的主要焦点是时间表分析。 （具体而言，由于战后时期的生育能力变化而导致的年轻人的供应发生了变化）。然后，通过使用Shift-Share分析来确认其贡献。

项目成果

石川義孝: "人口移動要因分析の総括" 『人口移動要因分析調査報告書』. 120-131 (1996)

石川芳孝：《人口迁移因素分析综述》《人口迁移因素分析调查报告》120-131（1996）。

Ishikawa, Yoshitaka: "Asia and Osaka in terms of population flows" Asia and Osaka. 197-213 (1996)

石川义隆：“从人口流动来看亚洲和大阪” 亚洲和大阪。

Ishikawa, Yoshitaka: "Summary of migration factor analysis" Report of Survey of Migration Factor Analysis. 120-131 (1996)

Ishikawa, Yoshitaka：“迁移因素分析摘要”迁移因素分析调查报告。

石川 義孝: "人の流れからみたアジアと大阪" アジアと大阪. 197-213 (1996)

石川芳孝：“从人流看亚洲和大阪”亚洲和大阪197-213（1996）。

石川 義孝: "人口移動要因分析の総括" 人口移動要因分析調査報告書. 120-131 (1996)

石川芳隆：《人口流动因素分析综述》人口流动因素分析调查报告120-131（1996）。