Research in Spatial Variation of Distance-decay Effect in Intra-metropolitan Migration

都市内迁移距离衰减效应空间分异研究

基本信息

批准号：
07680171
负责人：
ISHIKAWA Yoshitaka
金额：
$ 1.22万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至 1996
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07680171/
关键词：
migration distance-decay effect expansion method shift-share analysis 大都市圏距離効果外国人

项目摘要

(1) Distance-decay parameter estimates derived from the spatial interaction model for intra-metropolitan migration were analyzed. The study area here was the Keihanshin Metropolitan Area, defined in 1990 population census by the Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency. The parameter estimates tended to be less negative in eastern half of the study area, while more negative in western half.Such a variation were influenced by location of the unit areas concerned within the study area. Thus, the initial model was "expanded" into the terminal model by substituting the function having the estimates as dependent variable and location data (longitude and latitude) as independent variables. This is an application of Casetti's expansion method. However, new estimates of distance-decay parameter were not necessarily linked with previous arguments satisfactorily.(2) Under lying factors of recent migration changes of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area since the 1970s, a major focal point of the Japanese migration system, were elucidated by time-series analyzes.3) With regard to the migration turnarounds observed in the decades of the 1970s and 1980s, we assumed the demographic event (specifically, changing supply of young adults due to changing fertility in the postwar period) as a possible cause. Then, its contribution was confirmed by using the shift-share analysis.

(1)分析了从城市内迁移空间相互作用模型得出的距离衰减参数估计。这里的研究区域是统计局、管理协调机构在 1990 年人口普查中定义的京阪神都市区。研究区东半部的参数估计值往往负值较小，而西半部负值较大。这种变化受到研究区内相关单位区域位置的影响。因此，通过替换具有估计值作为因变量和位置数据（经度和纬度）作为自变量的函数，将初始模型“扩展”为终端模型。这是卡塞蒂展开法的一个应用。然而，距离衰减参数的新估计并不一定与先前的论点令人满意地联系起来。(2) 20世纪70年代以来东京都区近期移民变化的潜在因素是日本移民系统的一个主要焦点，阐明了时间序列分析。3) 关于 20 世纪 70 年代和 1980 年代观察到的移民转变，我们假设了人口事件（具体来说，由于战后时期的生育率）作为一个可能的原因。然后，通过使用转移份额分析证实了其贡献。