Bifurcation and Game Theoretic Models for Sustainable Forest Management

可持续森林管理的分岔和博弈论模型

• 批准号: 203032-2013
• 负责人: Kant, Shashi
• 金额: $ 3.35万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=569846
• 关键词: Bifurcation; Game; Theoretic; Models; Sustainable

In the last two decades, forest management has been transforming from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to forest ecosystem management known as sustainable forest management (SFM). In the SYTM, forest management modeling was based on the concept of a single steady state (or equilibrium), an outcome of the assumptions of convexity and negative feedbacks in timber production process. The modeling for SFM decisions has to be based on real and complex forest ecosystem processes. Similarly, SFM requires co-management, rather than a management by state/private agencies, to incorporate forest values of different stakeholders. Hence, for the successful transition of forest management to SFM, there is urgent need to develop new forest management models and game theoretic models to analyze interactions between partners in forest co-management. In this program, forest management models, incorporating interactions between different tree species and between tree and animal species, will be developed for softwood-dominated and hardwood-dominated mixedwood boreal forests; and maple, and maple and beech dominated hardwood forests of the Great Lakes St Lawrence region. The main features of these models will be the incorporation of convex-concave growth functions and multiple equilibriums. SFM rules will be suggested on the basis of these models. In addition, three evolutionary game theoretical models will be developed to analyze the conditions under possible co-management situations, between Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) and First Nation Communities (FNCs), forest industry and FNCs, and the MNR, forest industry, and FNCs, under the Northern Boreal Initiative. The results of game theoretical models will be used to suggest basic features of co-management agreements. Three Ph.D., 3 M.Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 15 refereed papers and 3 management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. The program will extend theoretical boundaries of forest management and provide guidance to forest managers in developing SFM rules and co-management agreements.

在过去的二十年中，森林管理已经从持续产量木材管理（SYTM）转变为被称为可持续森林管理（SFM）的森林生态系统管理。在 SYTM 中，森林管理模型基于单一稳态（或平衡）的概念，这是木材生产过程中凸性和负反馈假设的结果。可持续森林管理决策的建模必须基于真实且复杂的森林生态系统过程。同样，可持续森林管理需要共同管理，而不是由国家/私人机构管理，以纳入不同利益相关者的森林价值。因此，为了使森林管理成功过渡到可持续森林管理，迫切需要开发新的森林管理模型和博弈论模型来分析森林共同管理中合作伙伴之间的相互作用。在该计划中，将为以软木为主和以硬木为主的混木北方森林开发森林管理模型，纳入不同树种之间以及树种与动物物种之间的相互作用；枫树、枫树和山毛榉在五大湖圣劳伦斯地区的硬木森林中占主导地位。这些模型的主要特征是凸凹增长函数和多重均衡的结合。 SFM规则将在这些模型的基础上提出。此外，还将开发三种演化博弈理论模型，以分析自然资源部 (MNR) 与原住民社区 (FNC)、林业与 FNC 以及 MNR、林业、和 FNC，根据北寒倡议。博弈论模型的结果将用于提出共同管理协议的基本特征。培养博士生3名、硕士生3名、本科生3名；将发表 15 篇参考论文和 3 篇管理简报，并进行 14 场会议演讲。 该计划将扩展森林管理的理论边界，并为森林管理者制定可持续森林管理规则和共同管理协议提供指导。