Spatial and Non-Spatial Timber Market Models and Game Theoretic Models of Sustainable Forest Management

空间和非空间木材市场模型和可持续森林管理的博弈论模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2019-05199
• 负责人: Kant, Shashi
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=753643
• 关键词: Spatial; Non; Timber; Market; Models

Canada is playing a leading role in forest management transitioning from sustained yield timber management (SYTM) to sustainable forest management (SFM). In SFM, other ecosystem services, such as biodiversity, are as important as timber and requires the incorporation of stakeholders' values. In Ontario, two important changes have occurred. First, the establishment of a Local Citizens Committee (LCC), to assist the author of forest management plan in its preparation and implementation, has become a statutory requirement. Second, the province is making serious efforts to have forest co-management arrangements with First Nations peoples. In addition, due to emerging international trade regimes, Canada is exploring new timber markets beyond the traditional partner. Hence, for sound conceptual and theoretical foundations of SFM, there is urgent need to develop: (i) a full understanding of global timber markets; (ii) forest management models that incorporate interactions among different stakeholders, such as LCC members; and (iii) evolutionary models to analyze the dynamics of preferences and interactions between different stakeholders. In this program, we will develop three types of models. First, we will develop non-spatial and spatial models for timber markets in China. The organization of timber auctions in China is different compared to North America and therefore it is critical to understand and analyze timber auctions of China for establishing the timber-trade regime with China. Second, we will model the participation of LCC members in forest management planning in the context of their uncertain property rights. We will develop four models for different groups of LCC members - members with commercial, non-commercial such as recreation, and broader environmental interests, and local governments. We will develop a three-stage two-player game theoretic model for each group. In the first stage, the plan author selects harvesting areas over the planning period. In the second stage, the plan author and the LCC members bargain over a mutually agreed plan with endogenous bargaining positions. We will model that the reservation utilities of members depend on the outcome of a third-stage game where each player may attempt to get de facto property rights. Third, we will develop game-theoretic models that will incorporate the evolution of preferences. These models will be for co-management agreements, between First Nations (FNs) and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), FNs and forest industry, and FNs, forest industry, and MNR. We will use all models' results to make policy and forest management related recommendations. Three Ph.D., 3 M. Sc., and 3 undergraduate students will be trained; 11 refereed papers and 6 policy/ management briefs will be published, and 14 conference presentations will be made. Three user workshops will be organized. The program will make important conceptual, theoretical, and applied contributions to the SFM paradigm.

加拿大在森林管理从持续高产木材管理（SYTM）向可持续森林管理（SFM）转型方面发挥着主导作用。在可持续森林管理中，生物多样性等其他生态系统服务与木材一样重要，需要纳入利益相关者的价值观。在安大略省，发生了两个重要的变化。首先，成立地方公民委员会（LCC），协助森林管理计划的制定者制定和实施，已成为法定要求。其次，该省正在认真努力与原住民建立森林共同管理安排。此外，由于新兴的国际贸易体制，加拿大正在探索传统合作伙伴之外的新木材市场。因此，为了为可持续森林管理奠定良好的概念和理论基础，迫切需要发展： (i) 对全球木材市场的充分了解； (ii) 纳入不同利益相关者（例如 LCC 成员）之间互动的森林管理模式； (iii) 进化模型来分析不同利益相关者之间的偏好和相互作用的动态。在这个计划中，我们将开发三种类型的模型。首先，我们将为中国木材市场开发非空间和空间模型。中国木材拍卖的组织方式与北美不同，因此了解和分析中国的木材拍卖对于建立与中国的木材贸易制度至关重要。其次，我们将在产权不确定的背景下对 LCC 成员参与森林管理规划进行建模。我们将为不同的 LCC 成员群体开发四种模式——商业成员、娱乐等非商业成员、更广泛的环境利益成员以及地方政府。我们将为每个组开发一个三阶段两人博弈理论模型。在第一阶段，计划作者在计划期内选择收获区域。在第二阶段，计划作者和LCC成员以内生谈判立场就共同商定的计划进行讨价还价。我们将建模成员的预订效用取决于第三阶段博弈的结果，其中每个参与者都可能尝试获得事实上的产权。第三，我们将开发包含偏好演变的博弈论模型。这些模型将适用于原住民 (FN) 和自然资源部 (MNR)、FN 和林业以及 FN、林业和 MNR 之间的共同管理协议。我们将使用所有模型的结果来提出政策和森林管理相关的建议。培养博士生3名、硕士生3名、本科生3名；将出版 11 篇审稿论文和 6 篇政策/管理简报，并进行 14 场会议演讲。将组织三个用户研讨会。该计划将为 SFM 范式做出重要的概念、理论和应用贡献。