General Equilibrium Assessments of Free Trade Agreement Strategy in East Asian Countries

东亚国家自由贸易协定战略的总体均衡评估

基本信息

批准号：
16530199
负责人：
RI Hakuyu
金额：
$ 0.7万
依托单位：
Kobe University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16530199/
关键词：
free trade agreement East Asia CGE model FTA

项目摘要

In the past decade the number of free trade agreements (FTAs) has proliferated rapidly. Whether FTAs are a facilitating intermediate step towards global free trade or a hindrance to greater global trade liberalization is a hotly debated issue. In this project, the effects of prospective free trade agreements involving East Asian countries are assessed using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our major findings are as follows :1.In all FTA scenarios in East Asia that are considered in this project, welfare gains to the region are relatively small compared with global trade liberalization. Our findings indicate that the China-Japan-Korea FTA and the ASEAN+3 FTA would bring about relatively large welfare gains to all member countries.2.In terms of economic welfare, East Asian countries have an incentive to sign an FTA with China largely because of its rapid growth in import demand.3.When sensitive products such as food and agricultural products are excluded from the FTA involving Japan, welfare gains to the member countries would be reduced by 50-75 percent.4.The indices of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) are computed and RCA rankings of commodities with various FTA scenarios and those with the global trade liberalization are correlated to examine how "natural" each grouping would be. The ASEAN+3 FTA, with relatively large welfare gains and small structural adjustments, could be a facilitating intermediate step towards global free trade. The smaller FTAs, such as the ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-Korea FTAs, would result in large structural adjustments for ASEAN countries.

在过去的十年中，自由贸易协定（FTA）的数量已迅速扩散。 FTA是促进全球自由贸易的促进中间步骤还是妨碍更大的全球贸易自由化是一个辩论的问题。在该项目中，使用动态的全球可计算一般平衡（CGE）模型评估涉及东亚国家的预期自由贸易协定的影响。我们的主要发现如下：1。在该项目中考虑的所有FTA场景中，与全球贸易自由化相比，该地区的福利收益相对较小。我们的发现表明，中国 - 日本 - 科里亚FTA和东盟+3 FTA将为所有成员国带来相对较大的福利增长。2。在经济福利方面，东亚国家有动力与中国签署FTA很大程度上，很大程度上是因为其在进口需求中的迅速增长。将减少50-75％。4。计算出的比较优势（RCA）的指数和具有不同FTA场景的商品的RCA排名，并且具有全球贸易自由化的商品的相关性相关，以检查每个分组的“自然”。东盟+3 FTA具有相对较大的福利收益和微小的结构调整，可能是迈向全球自由贸易的中间步骤。较小的FTA，例如东盟 - 中国，日本和东盟 - 库里亚FTA，将对东盟国家进行大规模的结构调整。