Regional Economic Integration and its Impacts on Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction in East Asia: An Ecnometric Analysis based on CGE Modeling

东亚区域经济一体化及其对增长、收入分配和减贫的影响：基于 CGE 模型的计量经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
16330037
负责人：
EZAKI Mitsuo
金额：
$ 5.06万
依托单位：
Nagoya University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We started the first year (2004) of three-year project by implementing a pilot study of CGE world model with focus on Vietnam and almost completed the case study of Vietnam at the end of the year. We attempted also to collect micro household data for Vietnam, China and Thailand, to build data base for world model, and to implement theoretical and empirical studies to supplement the modeling analysis. In the second year (2005), we continued similar research and studies, adding Indonesia and almost completed the case studies of China and Thailand. In the first half of the final year (2006), we almost completed the case study of Indonesia and finalized the whole content of the project.At the end of the three-year project, we had an international workshop on January 28-29, 2007 at the Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, in order to integrate and summarize all of the research works done for the project during the past 3 years. The workshop resulted in the final … More project report consisting mainly of the papers presented: 4 case studies of Vietnam, China, Thailand and Indonesia on regional integration and growth, poverty and income distribution in East Asia, 1 summary paper for the whole region, and 6 other related papers, totaling 11 in number. The final project report includes 3 published paper in the past in addition to the above 11 papers presented at the workshop. We had 5 participants to the workshop from China, 2 from Vietnam, 1 from Thailand, and 2 from Indonesia in addition to 5 from the Japanese side.The impact analysis based on the world CGE model indicates that the East Asian FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) or the East Asian Economic Community generally have positive effects on growth, improve income distribution, and result in poverty reduction, though the impacts on China are a little bit exceptional. The results indicate positive potential or long-run positive effects of the East Asian Economic Community, but its requirement of structural adjustment is the actual problem to be overcome in the short-run. This is the general implication, but the impacts of FTA on growth, distribution and poverty differ in sign and magnitude, depending on countries and the types of FTA, so that concrete and specific analysis and evaluation are needed for individual cases. The next research to be continued from this project is to do dynamic CGE analysis on the impacts of FTAs in East Asia, giving future prospects of the countries and the region as a whole. Less

我们通过对CGE World Model进行了一项针对越南的CGE世界模型的试点研究开始了三年的第一年（2004年），并在年底几乎完成了对越南的案例研究。我们还试图为越南，中国和泰国收集微型家庭数据，以建立世界模型的数据库，并实施理论和经验研究以补充建模分析。在第二年（2005年），我们继续进行类似的研究和研究，增加了印度尼西亚，几乎完成了中国和泰国的案例研究。在最后一年（2006年）的上半年，我们几乎完成了印尼的案例研究，并完成了该项目的全部内容。在为期三年的项目结束时，我们于2007年1月28日至29日在纳戈亚大学国际发展研究生院进行了国际研讨会，以便在过去3年中整合和总结研究工作。研讨会导致了最后的……更多的项目报告，其中主要包括介绍的论文：4个关于越南，中国，泰国和印度尼西亚的案例研究，内容涉及东亚地区的区域融合和增长，贫困和收入分配，1个全部地区的摘要论文，另外6个相关论文，总计11个。最终项目报告包括过去的3篇发表论文，除了上述11篇论文。我们有5名来自中国研讨会的参与者，越南2名，来自泰国的1名参与者，除了来自日本人的5名来自印度尼西亚的参与者。基于世界CGE模型的影响分析表明，东亚FTA（自由贸易协定）（自由贸易协定）或东亚经济社区通常对增长，改善收入分配，以及对中国的影响很少，对中国的影响很大。结果表明，东亚经济社区的积极潜力或长期积极影响，但其结构调整的要求是在短期内要克服的实际问题。这是一般的含义，但是FTA对增长，分配和贫困的影响在符号和幅度上不同，具体取决于国家和FTA的类型，因此需要具体的，具体的分析和评估。该项目要继续进行的下一项研究是对FTA在东亚的影响进行动态CGE分析，从而为国家和整个地区提供了未来的前景。较少的