Regional Economic Integration and its Impacts on Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction in East Asia: An Ecnometric Analysis based on CGE Modeling

东亚区域经济一体化及其对增长、收入分配和减贫的影响：基于 CGE 模型的计量经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
16330037
负责人：
EZAKI Mitsuo
金额：
$ 5.06万
依托单位：
Nagoya University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We started the first year (2004) of three-year project by implementing a pilot study of CGE world model with focus on Vietnam and almost completed the case study of Vietnam at the end of the year. We attempted also to collect micro household data for Vietnam, China and Thailand, to build data base for world model, and to implement theoretical and empirical studies to supplement the modeling analysis. In the second year (2005), we continued similar research and studies, adding Indonesia and almost completed the case studies of China and Thailand. In the first half of the final year (2006), we almost completed the case study of Indonesia and finalized the whole content of the project.At the end of the three-year project, we had an international workshop on January 28-29, 2007 at the Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, in order to integrate and summarize all of the research works done for the project during the past 3 years. The workshop resulted in the final … More project report consisting mainly of the papers presented: 4 case studies of Vietnam, China, Thailand and Indonesia on regional integration and growth, poverty and income distribution in East Asia, 1 summary paper for the whole region, and 6 other related papers, totaling 11 in number. The final project report includes 3 published paper in the past in addition to the above 11 papers presented at the workshop. We had 5 participants to the workshop from China, 2 from Vietnam, 1 from Thailand, and 2 from Indonesia in addition to 5 from the Japanese side.The impact analysis based on the world CGE model indicates that the East Asian FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) or the East Asian Economic Community generally have positive effects on growth, improve income distribution, and result in poverty reduction, though the impacts on China are a little bit exceptional. The results indicate positive potential or long-run positive effects of the East Asian Economic Community, but its requirement of structural adjustment is the actual problem to be overcome in the short-run. This is the general implication, but the impacts of FTA on growth, distribution and poverty differ in sign and magnitude, depending on countries and the types of FTA, so that concrete and specific analysis and evaluation are needed for individual cases. The next research to be continued from this project is to do dynamic CGE analysis on the impacts of FTAs in East Asia, giving future prospects of the countries and the region as a whole. Less

我们开始了为期三年的项目的第一年（2004年），实施了以越南为重点的CGE世界模型试点研究，并在年底几乎完成了越南的案例研究，我们还尝试收集越南的微观家庭数据。越南、中国和泰国，为世界模型建立数据库，并进行理论和实证研究以补充模型分析。第二年（2005年），我们继续进行类似的研究和研究，加入了印度尼西亚，并完成了差不多的案例研究。上半年中国和泰国。最后一年（2006年），我们几乎完成了印度尼西亚的案例研究，并最终确定了项目的全部内容。在为期三年的项目结束时，我们于2007年1月28日至29日在研究生院举办了一次国际研讨会名古屋大学国际发展学院，为了整合和总结过去三年中为该项目所做的所有研究工作，研讨会得出了最终的项目报告，主要包括所提交的论文：4个越南案例研究。，中国，泰国和印度尼西亚关于东亚区域一体化与增长、贫困和收入分配的研究，整个地区的总结论文1篇，其他相关论文6篇，共计11篇。最终的项目报告除包括过去发表的论文3篇外，还包括3篇。研讨会上提交的上述11篇论文中，我们有5名来自中国的参与者，2名来自越南，1名来自泰国，2名来自印度尼西亚，还有5名来自日本。基于世界CGE模型的影响分析表明认为东亚FTA（自由贸易协定）或东亚经济共同体总体上对增长、改善收入分配和减少贫困有积极影响，尽管对中国的影响有点特殊。结果显示出积极的潜力或长期的积极影响。东亚经济共同体的影响，但其结构调整的要求是短期内需要克服的实际问题。这是一般含义，但FTA对增长、分配和贫困的影响在迹象和程度上有所不同。具体取决于国家和自由贸易协定的类型该项目接下来要继续的研究是对东亚自由贸易协定的影响进行动态CGE分析，给出各国和整个地区的未来前景。较少的