Development of Unified Demand Forecast Models for National Land-use Planning

国家土地利用规划统一需求预测模型的开发

基本信息

批准号：
10450186
负责人：
MORISUGI Hisayoshi
金额：
$ 5.12万
依托单位：
TOHOKU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
财政年份：
1998
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1998 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This study aims to develop a set of practical demand forecast models based on a unified micro-economic behavioral principle so that it is possible to estimate associated benefits by using the developed behavioral models. The study results can be summarized as follows :(1) The consumption of various goods and services such as transportation and shopping, etc., requires time. Therefore, it needs to know the characteristics of the value of time. By making a simple consumer model, this study succeeded in the sensitivity analysis to show the influences of charge in price level, required time, total available time and income level on the value of time. This point has not been succeeded by the previous literature.(2) In order to apply the theory mentioned above to the practical transportation forecast, it is necessary to change the conventional method which forecasts given the value of time, to the method which is able to simultaneously forecast the demand and value of time. This study propos … More ed such a practical simultaneous forecast method by adopting CES utility function and showed its practicability.(3) By surveying present practical urban land-use models over the world, this study proposed a basic framework for the practical models on the micro-economic foundations, functional forms and assumptions and a pply this framework to theoretically express the reasons why the various results come from the various models.(4) It is said that theoretically there are not only a use value but also an existing value for any element of environment. This study showed that by adopting an appropriate utility functional form and derive its demand functions, it is possible to estimate amounts and their shares of the use value and the existing value for any element of environment by observing people's behaviours.(5) This study proposed an manual for emerment physical distribution plan and its usefulness and practicability. Specifically it suggests that it is important to maintain the speed of transportation by imposing some regulations in order to simultaneouslv achieve the minimization of total time and the longest time. Less

这项研究旨在基于统一的微观经济行为原则开发一套实用需求预测模型，以便可以使用开发的行为模型来估计相关的收益。研究结果可以总结如下：（1）消费各种商品和服务（例如运输和购物等）需要时间。因此，它需要了解时间价值的特征。通过制定一个简单的消费者模型，这项研究成功地进行了灵敏度分析，以表明费用水平，所需时间，可用时间和收入水平对时间的价值的影响。（2）为了将上述理论应用于实际运输预测，有必要更改森林人赋予时间价值的传统方法，即能够简单地预测时间的需求和价值。这项研究提出了……更实用的简单预测方法，通过采用CES效用功能并显示了其实用性。（3）通过调查当前世界上实用的城市土地利用模型，该研究提出了一个实用模型的基本框架，以微观经济基础，功能形式和功能性形式和plath的框架和一个假定的框架表达了各种模型的原因。只有使用值，也是任何环境元素的现有值。这项研究表明，通过采用适当的效用功能形式并得出其需求功能，可以通过观察人们的行为来估计使用价值的金额及其份额以及对任何环境因素的现有价值。（5）本研究提出了一份有关出现物理分布计划的手册及其实用性和实用性和实用性。具体而言，它表明，通过强加一些法规来同时实现总时间和最长时间的最小化来维持运输速度很重要。较少的