STUDY ON DEMAND FORECAST AND BENEFIT ESTIMATE FOR TOURISM PROJECT

旅游项目需求预测及效益估算研究

基本信息

批准号：
03650432
负责人：
MORISUGI Hisayoshi
金额：
$ 1.28万
依托单位：
GIFU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1991
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1991 至 1992
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-03650432/
关键词：
Tourism Development Project Evaluation Demand Forecast Benefit Estimate Random Utility Theory Nested Logit Model Consumer Surplus Equivalent Variation

项目摘要

In this study, we propose a model which is able to forecast the volume of sightseeing trip chains and the impacts on them of any associated tourism projects such as road improvement and new development of sightseeing resources.One of the characteristics of sightseeing trips may be said that individuals combine trips into a home-based chain in which more than one destination location may be visited. Due to this fact, the conventional Four Step Forecast Method cannot be applied because it implicitly assumes that trip distribution is chosen independently of any neighborhood locations. Our model adopts the Nested Logit Model in order explicitly to represent this chain behavior of sightseeing trips by making a choice tree on the sequence of visits for several sightseeing sites. For parameter estimation, our model proposes the sequential aggregate Logit procedure because the locational conditions of any sightseeing sites could be viewed as remaining at the same values irrespectively of individual data when we fix its home location.For the benefit estimation of the tourism project, we construct a benefit measurement model by applying the concept of Equivalent Variation to the utility function of the Nested Logit Model. It shows that the benefit could be approximated to the consumer surplus concerning with the changes of generalized transport cost.Lastly, our study shows its practicalty by applying our model to the Gifu region.

在这项研究中，我们提出了一个模型，该模型能够预测观光之旅链的数量，以及对它们的任何相关旅游项目的影响，例如道路改进和观光资源的新开发。可能会说，观光旅行的特征之一可能会说，将旅行结合到一个基于家庭的连锁店，其中比一个目的地可能会访问。由于这一事实，无法应用常规的四步预测方法，因为它隐含地假设跳闸分布是独立于任何邻里位置选择的。我们的模型通过在几个观光网站的访问顺序上进行选择树来明确地采用嵌套的logit模型，以明确表示观光旅行的链行为。为了进行参数估计，我们的模型提出了顺序的logit过程，因为当我们修复其家庭位置时，任何观光站点的位置条件都可以看作是保持在相同值的位置。对于旅游项目的福利估计，我们通过将等效变异的概念应用于嵌套的logit function nested Logit模型。它表明，随着广义运输成本的变化，可以将收益近似于消费者的盈余。lastlas，我们的研究通过将我们的模型应用于GIFU地区来表明其实用性。