Reliability Assessment of Inspected Marine Structure

受检海洋结构的可靠性评估

• 批准号: 62850075
• 负责人: ITAGAKI Hiroshi
• 金额: $ 4.22万
• 依托单位: Yokohama National University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1987 至 1988
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-62850075/
• 关键词: Bayesian reliability; Inspection; Fuzzy

This study develops a method of Bayesian reliability analysis to establish an optimal inspection scchedule of marine stuctures with multiple components using the data collected during inservice inspections. Expressions for the probabilities of various events that take place at the time of an inspection are derived. On the basis of these probabilities, the posterior degree of belief and Bayesian expected reliability are determined. From the computed relliability, the optimum time of the next inspection is determined. The above mentioned expressions are useful with crisp information about the inspection results. For example, the exact size of the detected crack is needed to estimate the likelyhood. the method cannot be applied if there is only fuzzy information avvailable. Therefore, a fuzzy-Bayesian reliability approach for the decision of proper inspection schedule to maintain structural integrity is also tried in this study. It is found out that the posterior density of uncertain factors is very well defined by the proposed method.

这项研究开发了一种贝叶斯可靠性分析的方法，以使用在不服务检查期间收集的数据来建立具有多个组件的最佳海洋构造方法。得出了在检查时发生的各种事件概率的表达式。根据这些概率，确定了信仰的后验和贝叶斯预期可靠性。根据计算的重新性，确定下一次检查的最佳时间。上述表达式对检查结果的清晰信息很有用。例如，需要检测到的裂纹的确切大小来估计可能性。如果只有模糊信息可用，则无法应用该方法。因此，在本研究中，还尝试了一种模糊的bayesian可靠性方法，以确定适当的检查时间表以保持结构完整性。发现不确定因素的后部密度是由提出的方法很好地定义的。

项目成果

Yukio,Fujimot: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio，Fujimot：ICOSSAR89 的会议记录。

Yukio,Fujimoto: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio，Fujimoto：ICOSSAR89 的会议记录。

Seiichi, Ito: "Aplication of Fuzzy-Bayesian Analysis to Structural Reliability" Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Seiichi, Ito：“模糊贝叶斯分析在结构可靠性中的应用”ICOSSAR89 论文集。

Yukio, Fujimot: "Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Structure with Multiple Components" Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Yukio, Fujimot：“多部件结构的贝叶斯可靠性分析”ICOSSAR89 论文集。

Seiichi,Ito: Proceeding of ICOSSAR'89. (1989)

Seiichi,Ito：ICOSSAR89 论文集。