ALPACA - Advancing the Long-range Prediction, Attribution, and forecast Calibration of AMOC and its climate impacts

APACA - 推进 AMOC 及其气候影响的长期预测、归因和预报校准

• 批准号: 2406511
• 负责人: Stephen Yeager
• 金额: $ 61.51万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-01-01 至 2026-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2406511&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ALPACA; Advancing; Long; range; Prediction

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.This project aims to advance understanding of AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) predictability. The overarching objective of this international collaboration is to quantify, understand, and improve our capacity to predict the AMOC and its climate impacts on seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) timescales. It will utilize AMOC observations (RAPID and OSNAP) as well as observation-based AMOC reconstructions to assess the skill in predicting the AMOC in state-of-the-art S2D prediction systems. It will evaluate the processes that contribute to skill and their consistency across models and use new simulations to better understand the relative roles of different processes in driving observed variability on S2D timescales. Additionally, new large- ensemble simulations will be used to quantify the role of external forcing in driving AMOC variability and change. Finally, with this new understanding, it will determine whether S2D predictions of AMOC and AMOC-related climate impacts can be improved through physically-consistent statistical calibrations that reduce the signal-to-noise issues in predictions of atmospheric circulation. The new knowledge may inform future prediction system development and will feed directly into international coordinated activities such as WCRP’s Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and its lighthouse activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC). Improved and better understood climate predictions will deliver significant benefits to society as a whole. The knowledge gained in this effort will be promulgated through the CESM Earth System Prediction Working Group that supports the US university community. The findings will likely influence diverse research communities focused on climate change and projection, climate prediction, ocean modeling, and observational oceanography. An early career scientist (postdoc) at NCAR will benefit from the opportunity to work with an international team of experts.The expected intellectual advancements from this work include: 1) clarification of the current capacity of state-of-the-art initialized prediction systems to predict AMOC and its constituent currents when verified against a suite of available observational benchmarks; 2) elucidation of the key predictability mechanisms at work in skillful systems and their time scale dependence; 3) improved understanding of whether and how skillful AMOC prediction translates into skillful prediction of Atlantic sector climate impacts; 4) more sophisticated attribution of past AMOC change; and 5) assessment of the potential to improve S2D AMOC and associated impacts predictions using new forecast calibration techniques.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目由美国国家科学基金会地球科学理事会 (NSF/GEO) 和英国国家环境研究委员会 (NERC) 通过 NSF/GEO-NERC 牵头机构协议共同资助。单一的美国/英国联合提案将由其研究人员拥有最大预算比例的机构提交并进行同行评审。在成功联合确定一项奖励建议后，每个机构将资助支持其机构科学家的预算比例。各自国家。这个项目旨在增进对 AMOC（大西洋经向翻转环流）可预测性的理解 这项国际合作的首要目标是量化、理解和提高我们预测 AMOC 及其对季节到十年 (S2D) 时间尺度的气候影响的能力。它将利用 AMOC 观测（RAPID 和 OSNAP）以及基于观测的 AMOC 重建来评估在最先进的 S2D 预测系统中预测 AMOC 的技能。它将评估有助于技能及其跨模型一致性的过程，并使用新的模拟来更好地了解不同过程在驱动 S2D 时间尺度上观察到的变异性方面的相对作用。此外，新的大型集成模拟将用于量化最后，有了这一新的认识，它将确定是否可以通过物理一致的统计校准来改善 AMOC 和 AMOC 相关气候影响的 S2D 预测，从而减少预测中的信噪比问题。的新的知识可以为未来预测系统的发展提供信息，并将直接反馈给国际协调活动，例如 WCRP 的十年气候预测项目 (DCPP) 及其关于解释和预测地球系统变化 (EPESC) 的灯塔活动。预测将为整个社会带来重大利益，这项工作中获得的知识将通过支持美国大学界的 CESM 地球系统预测工作组公布，这些发现可能会影响关注气候的各个研究团体。 NCAR 的早期职业科学家（博士后）将受益于与国际专家团队合作的机会。这项工作的预期智力进步包括：1）澄清根据一套可用的观测基准进行验证后，最先进的初始化预测系统预测 AMOC 及其组成电流的当前能力；2）阐明在熟练系统中发挥作用的关键可预测性机制及其时间尺度；依赖性； 3) 更好地了解熟练的 AMOC 预测是否以及如何转化为对大西洋部门气候影响的熟练预测； 4) 更复杂地归因过去的 AMOC 变化；以及 5) 使用新的方法评估改进 S2D AMOC 和相关影响预测的潜力。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。